Week 14 NFL Odds
Week 13 isn’t quite over yet, but Week 14 odds are out and there are a lot of games to think about as the calendar flips over to December. We do have four teams – 49ers, Giants, Panthers, Patriots – on byes, as this is the last possible week off for teams. We’ll have 16 games per week going forward once Week 14 is in the books.
Dallas and Detroit play on Thursday Night Football after playing on Thanksgiving to get the week started and we have a loaded Sunday slate of divisional matchups and then a banger of a Monday Night Football game to discuss. Speaking of MNF, Zachary Cohen’s preview for Giants vs. Patriots is right here so you can get thoughts on that one after scanning the opening odds for Week 14.
Be sure to keep an eye on our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and exclusive Circa NFL Betting Splits throughout the week.
Here is the Week 14 NFL Odds Report:
Odds as of Sunday, November 30 at 9:30 p.m. PT
Cowboys at Lions (-3, 53.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
What a difference a few weeks makes, eh? I think we all would have expected this line to be higher, and it was on the lookahead lines last week with Lions -5.5, but the Cowboys upset the Chiefs and Detroit lost to Green Bay, so here we are. The Lions also potentially lost Amon-Ra St. Brown, as we’ll see if he can fight his way through a sprained ankle or not. All of the sudden, this is a battle hosted by the 7-5 Lions, who have not strung together wins since their four-game winning streak from Week 2 through Week 5. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have won three in a row and bested the Eagles and Chiefs in that span.
You’re still laying a little bit extra on Lions -3 here, so a move to 3.5 is not out of the realm of possibility, but this line certainly reflects the recent returns for these two teams.
Commanders at Vikings (-1.5, 40.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Minnesota was shut out in the Sam Darnold Revenge Game, as Max Brosmer had a hard time with the Seattle defense, including a long pick-six that turned a potential scoring drive into seven points on the other end. The Vikings have been shut out three times this season now and may have to contend with the return of Jayden Daniels, who tried, but didn’t make it back in time to face the Broncos. Even if the Vikings get “Nine” back with the return of their starting QB, JJ McCarthy, hopes are not high for Minnesota here or the rest of the way. The lookahead line was as high as Minnesota -3. It is not that now.
Dolphins (-2.5, 42) at Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Let’s be honest – it was not an impressive effort from the Dolphins coming off of the bye at home against the Saints. New Orleans had a two-point conversion attempt to tie the game, but Miami turned it into a pick-two and won by four, failing to cover the spread. It was as underwhelming of an effort as you can get against a bad team and now Miami is going to the cold of the Meadowlands laying a field goal? The Jets and Tyrod Taylor walked off the Falcons on a 56-yard game-winner and I think they deserve more respect than what this line is showing, as it hasn’t been adjusted much from the lookahead, but moving off of a key number is significant.
Titans at Browns (-3.5, 33.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The Browns might find a way to set the record for the lowest Over/Under in an NFL game if they keep trending this way. Shedeur Sanders didn’t really look great and the Browns stayed true to the run, even as the 49ers’ lead expanded in Week 13. The Titans failed to score a TD for the third time this season and mustered just 188 yards of offense against the Jags. The early forecast calls for more gross weather in Cleveland. The lowest NFL total in recent memory was 28.5 between the Jets and Patriots in Week 18 of the 2023 season. So, we’re not going to threaten that, but who wants to bet an Over here? The spread didn’t really move much at all off the lookahead.
Steelers at Ravens (-6, 45)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
It was an unpleasant week for both the Steelers and Ravens. Baltimore lost at home as a big favorite to the Bengals and Aaron Rodgers left hurt with a bloody nose. He looked very unsure of himself with his broken left wrist and the Steelers, who have never had a losing season under Mike Tomlin, have lost five of seven. Of course, this game is for first place in the pathetic AFC North. This line didn’t really move off of Ravens -6.5 at most places, but the total did move down a couple of points.
Seahawks (-7.5, 43.5) at Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
A battle of the birds here, as Seattle plays an early kickoff in Atlanta. With their loss to the Jets, the Falcons all but cemented missing the playoffs, so this is now a throwaway season for the Falcons and one that will be finished without Michael Penix Jr. The vibes have to be low around the organization right now and even an early kick isn’t enough to keep this line below a touchdown. Of course, Seattle is a terrific team and we’re trending towards three NFC West teams in the postseason, with a big battle for the division looming as we go forward. You worry a bit about Seattle looking ahead, but the Falcons stink and losing to the Jets is about all the proof you need. This line didn’t really move much, as Seattle played to expectation, but the spot is tricky.
Colts (-1.5, 47.5) at Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
We may be sitting on a flipped favorite scenario here when all is said and done. The Colts were as high as -3 on the lookahead lines, but Indy looked bad on offense against Houston and it is painfully clear that Daniel Jones is not himself right now. The Jaguars still have their issues with their QB, but Liam Coen has them moving in the right direction as winners of three straight, while the Colts have dropped three of four. Given how many people expected regression out of Jones, this may be the spot where the market really looks to go against Indy. I don’t think we’re remotely done with movement here.
Saints at Buccaneers (-7.5, 42.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Another division matchup, though this one isn’t for first place like two of them listed above. This is a big spot for the Bucs, though, as a surprising win by the Panthers over the Rams has cut the lead to just a half-game in the NFC South. Carolina is on a bye this week, so this is the game in hand for Tampa Bay and it comes against a very inferior opponent. Also, the Bucs were at home last week, so there are no bad travel spots or anything of the sort. It wasn’t pretty against the Cardinals, but with another Saints loss and more clarity on Baker Mayfield, the 7.5s of last week still look a lot like 7.5s this week, with a few 8s out there as well.
Bengals at Bills (-5.5, 52)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
The return of Joe Burrow was a spark for the Bengals, who now take on the Bills in Week 14. Buffalo handled Pittsburgh, but we know this is a deeply-flawed team. Both teams are, and this is our only total in the 50s for Sunday, at least for now, while we wait to see what the Buffalo weather has in store. These are two poor defenses and two solid QBs, though Josh Allen only threw for 123 yards against the Steelers. James Cook was the leading receiver with 33 yards. There are some disconnected wires right now in Orchard Park and I wonder if bettors back the Bengals here.
Broncos (-7.5, 41.5) at Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
The Pete Carroll experiment has not worked at all in Las Vegas, as they’re much, much closer to picking first overall than they are to making the playoffs. A turnover-happy Raiders offense now faces the best defense in the NFL and it’s a Denver defense that has shined in terms of getting after the QB. The Browns had 10 sacks two weeks ago against the Raiders and the Chargers had five more this past week. Geno Smith also threw yet another pick. This line isn’t high enough probably.
Bears at Packers (-5.5, 45)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Bears have rattled off five wins in a row, including their Black Friday romp over the Eagles. This is a Chicago team that sits 9-3 with a +6 point differential. So many signs are pointing towards regression and you can see that they are not viewed in a very positive light from a power ratings standpoint, given where this line is sitting. The Packers have won three in a row themselves and have silenced a few critics. Jordan Love had a really nice game on Christmas to help the cause. Even though a win over Philly usually moves the needle, consider the needle unmoved, as this line wasn’t really adjusted at all off that win.
Rams (-8, 48.5) at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
If hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, what kind of fury will we get from a scorned Sean McVay team this week? The Rams saw a very un-Stafford-like performance from their veteran QB, as turnovers plagued LA out in Charlotte. Stafford doubled his interception total for the season and one was a pick-six in Carolina’s stunning upset win. Of course, outside of the turnover woes, the Rams had 7.4 yards per play on offense, so we may actually get some value on them moving forward. Any 8.5s or 8s look like 8s and 7.5s now and, honestly, I think this line goes up when the shock value of losing to the Panthers is replaced by looking at how the game actually played out.
Texans at Chiefs (-3.5, 42.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
What a fascinating game this is. This line dropped to as low as 3.5 in the market as of Sunday night with CJ Stroud back and Houston’s suffocating defense celebrating a win over the Colts. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, who are on extra rest and prep, stumbled to 6-6 with a loss to the Cowboys in a game where they got outgained by 95 yards and a full yard per play. KC just doesn’t seem to have “it” this season and runs the risk of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014.
Eagles (-3.5, 41) at Chargers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
We’ll have to wait and see what this line actually looks like based on Justin Herbert’s health. The lookahead line was -2.5 or -3 for the Eagles and we’ve seen some cautious approaches in light of Herbert’s fractured non-throwing hand. He’s having surgery on Monday, so we’ll seemingly get more clarity at that point. Fanduel had 3.5 and DraftKings had 3 with extra juice as of Sunday night on this one with the total adjusted down a couple of points off the lookahead line.
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