New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
After two consecutive losses, some were starting to ask what was wrong with the Bills. Now they have won three straight and are back on top in the AFC playoff picture. This shows how reactionary the NFL betting market can be. Even with these losses, the Bills still remained No. 1 or No. 2 in my power rankings and are currently No. 1 in DVOA per Football Outsiders.
The Jets are also rated higher in power ratings than the betting market. They lost and failed to cover (22-27, +3) in Minnesota last week but were clearly the better team as they gained nearly 500 yards (486) at 5.9 ypp. They went 1-for-6 in the red zone and were minus-2 in turnover margin and still had a chance to win at the end, which tells you how lucky Minnesota has been this season.
In Week 9, the Jets defeated Buffalo outright as double-digit underdogs, 20-17. Jets quarterback Zach Wilson actually outplayed NFL MVP candidate Josh Allen, but things change quickly in this league and Wilson finds himself on the bench watching his team being energized by Mike White.
The Jets are a top-10 team in overall DVOA (9th) and rate 4th on defense. The offense DVOA ranking of 19th clearly indicates that poor quarterback play from Wilson and Joe Flacco was holding this team back.
Buffalo has had a few extra days of preparation after dispatching the Patriots 24-10 last Thursday night. Now the Bills have back-to-back divisional revenge games at home against the Jets and Dolphins. The lookahead line was Buffalo -10 and now sits at -9/-9.5 in the market. Ordinarily, I would be jumping in with both feet to take double-digits with a top-5 defense, but Allen had his worst game (18-for-34, 205 yards, 2 INTs, sacked 5 times) of the season five weeks ago against the Jets and will be better here. Nevertheless, the Jets are live for the backdoor of this big number.
Despite being the No. 4 offense DVOA, the Bills have gone under in nine of their 12 games, including against these Jets five weeks ago. The total was 46 in the first meeting and now 43.5s are showing for the rematch. Obviously check the weather forecast first, but the Jets offense is clearly better with White, and Allen has shown the ability to rebound from poor performances. As this total continues to drop, the Over should have more value.