NFL First Touchdown
There are some big mismatches on the Week 15 schedule from a point spread standpoint, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the two teams have a big gap in terms of scoring the first touchdown of the game. We have 14 weeks worth of data points for everybody now and have been able to isolate some good wagers, even if the right player hasn’t found the end zone first. Get the team first and then get the player in the First Touchdown Scorer market.
The pricing in that market this week is going to be different than what we’ve been seeing because of all the big favorites. The skill guys on those teams are absolutely going to have depressed prices and it doesn’t matter how well their teams have done in terms of scoring first. The expectation is just that their teams will lead and that’s that. Hopefully, we can find some juicier prices as a result.
Let’s look at the first touchdown scorers by position for this season before looking at the NFL Week 15 schedule.
QB: 3 (27)
RB: 12 (138)
WR: 6 (146)
TE: 3 (60)
D/ST: 2 (20)
No TD: 2 (21)
OL: 0 (1)* – likely a refund because offensive linemen aren’t listed
Status quo for a good number of positions this past week, except for WR, who only had six first team TDs. I believe that is the lowest or second-lowest week this season at that spot, so we’ll see if it picks up again here this week. Quarterbacks with three rushing scores and one was Aaron Rodgers to go along with Lamar Jackson and Bo Nix. Pick the one who doesn’t belong.
The No TD teams were the Falcons and Commanders, so a sad face next to both of their names for Week 14.
All of the bye weeks are over now, so we’ll have 32 teams to pick from for the remaining four weeks of the regular season.
You can always access the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker and see what has happened so far this season and make some inferences and subsequently wagers that way.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 11/13 (84.6%) |
| Jaguars | 10/13 (76.9%) |
| Giants | 9/13 (69.2%) |
| Packers | 9/13 (69.2%) |
| Rams | 9/13 (69.2%) |
| Seahawks | 9/13 (69.2%) |
| 49ers | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Bears | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Bills | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Broncos | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Chargers | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Dolphins | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Eagles | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Lions | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Steelers | 8/13 (61.5%) |
| Browns | 7/13 (53.8%) |
| Bucs | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Panthers | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Texans | 6/13 (46.2%) |
| Bengals | 5/13 (38.5%) |
| Cardinals | 5/13 (38.5%) |
| Chiefs | 5/13 (38.5%) |
| Cowboys | 5/13 (38.5%) |
| Falcons | 5/13 (38.5%) |
| Raiders | 5/13 (38.5%) |
| Ravens | 5/13 (38.5%) |
| Commanders | 4/13 (30.8%) |
| Patriots | 4/13 (30.8%) |
| Jets | 3/13 (23.1%) |
| Titans | 3/13 (23.1%) |
| Vikings | 3/13 (23.1%) |
| Saints | 2/13 (15.4%) |
As you can see, every team has played 13 games, so we’re back to normal across the second column. Shout-out to the Saints, who scored first for the first time since Week 1. Congratulations, guys! They’re still bringing up the rear with the Jets, Titans, and Vikings, but still. An impressive accomplishment nonetheless.
In terms of some recent streaks and miscellaneous notes:
- Another rough week for the Falcons, who failed to a score a TD and have only scored the first TD once in their last eight games after starting 4/5
- The streak remains intact for the Ravens, who have not had a WR first TD since Week 2. Derrick Henry has done it four times in seven games since the bye and seven times overall
- The Bears had their four-game first TD streak snapped by the Packers, but they haven’t scored on their first possession in five straight games and 10 of the last 11, so they’re a slow starter
- The Cowboys were 4/7 to open the season, but are just 1/6 over the last six games
- The Lions scored on their first possession in 6/8 games to open the season, but have failed to score on their first possession in four straight
- The Jaguars ran their first TD streak up to five games
- The Chiefs haven’t had a player other than Kareem Hunt (4) or Rashee Rice (3) score the first team TD since Week 6
- The Rams failed to score the first TD for the first time since Week 5 in last week’s game against Arizona, a game that they won 45-17
- Say what you will about Mike McDaniel, but the Dolphins have scored the first TD in 8 of their last 11 games
- The Seahawks have scored the first TD in 3 straight, 5 of 6 since the bye, and 6 of their last 7 overall
I’m also tracking players to score at least three first team TDs for their teams. Here it is entering Week 15:
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 7 | 2 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 6 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 5 | 4 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 5 | 4 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 5 | 4 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 5 | 2 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 4 | 3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 4 | 3 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 4 | 3 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 4 | 2 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 4 | 2 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 4 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 4 | 2 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 4 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 4 | 1 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 3 | 3 |
| Travis Etienne (JAX) | 3 | 3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 3 | 3 |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 3 | 2 |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | 3 | 2 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 3 | 2 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) | 3 | 2 |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV) | 3 | 2 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 3 | 2 |
| Woody Marks (HOU) | 3 | 2 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 3 | 2 |
| Josh Oliver (MIN) | 3 | 2 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 3 | 2 |
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | 3 | 2 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 3 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 3 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 3 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 3 | 1 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 3 | 1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 3 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 3 | 0 |
| Bam Knight (ARI) | 3 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 3 | 0 |
| Raiders No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
| Titans No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
| Vikings No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
This week’s additions: Etienne, Barkley, Marks, Oliver, Bowers. Hunt, J. Williams, and Taylor went from 3 to 4. Gibbs went from 4 to 5.
With that, let’s get to the Week 15 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 15 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Falcons (38.5%) at Buccaneers (46.2%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Browns (53.8%) at Bears (61.5%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Ravens (38.5%) at Bengals (38.5%)
Chargers (61.5%) at Chiefs (38.5%)
Bills (61.5%) at Patriots (30.8%)
Commanders (30.8%) at Giants (69.2%)
Raiders (38.5%) at Eagles (61.5%)
Jets (23.1%) at Jaguars (76.9%)
Cardinals (38.5%) at Texans (46.2%)
Packers (69.2%) at Broncos (61.5%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Lions (61.5%) at Rams (69.2%)
Panthers (46.2%) at Saints (15.4%)
Titans (23.1%) at 49ers (61.5%)
Colts (84.6%) at Seahawks (69.2%)
Vikings (23.1%) at Cowboys (38.5%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Dolphins (61.5%) at Steelers (61.5%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Note – even though the Chargers have a big advantage, remember the angle I discussed when they played the Jaguars. The only true road game where they scored first was in Las Vegas in Week 2; they have not scored first in any of their four 1 p.m. starts so far, including even failing to score first against the Titans in Week 9 (to be fair, it was a pick-six)
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 15 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Buffalo Bills: Dalton Kincaid +1600, Khalil Shakir +1800
Even though the Patriots are coming off of a bye and should be ready and raring to go, they have absolutely struggled to score the first TD this season. The 11-2 Patriots have scored 22 TDs in the first half overall, including eight passing TDs in the first quarter, but they’ve had a knack for struggling to get into the rhythm of the game.
Of the eight TD the Patriots have allowed in the first quarter, six are passing TD. Of the 14 that they’ve allowed in the first half, 11 are passing TD. Given that at the time of writing, the favorite in this game was James Cook at +650, we’re getting some decent prices on all of the guys in this mix.
Shakir easily leads all WR with 12 red zone targets and also eight catches. Kincaid and Dawson Knox each have six, but Kincaid had missed some time and just returned. He’s played nine games to Knox’s 13 and still leads him in targets and receptions.
New York Giants: Devin Singletary +650, Theo Johnson +1200
Since Malik Nabers went down, Johnson leads the Giants with eight red zone targets. I would’ve expected more from Wan’Dale Robinson, but he has zero catches on three targets. It is amazing how the Giants are like the inverse of the Patriots, as they score first and are 2-11, while the Patriots don’t score first and are 11-2.
Nevertheless, with Mike Kafka and his team coming in off of a bye, I would expect them to have a good scripted set of plays. The Commanders have allowed nine TD in the first quarter and eight of them have been passing, but they have also allowed five yards per carry, so I wanted to pick one from each bucket. Also, the Giants simply don’t have a lot of red zone targets to go around since Week 5, but they do have 32 rushing attempts and five targets to running backs, and that’s including games with Cam Skattebo.
Since Week 9, Singletary has 14 rush attempts and two targets to seven rush attempts and zero targets for Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley +400, A.J. Brown +600
Unfortunately, this is one of those situations with a depressed pricing structure because of the opponent. The Raiders stink and everybody knows it. I did wrestle with Barkley vs. Hurts here because Barkley actually only has six more red zone rushing attempts than Hurts and obviously he doesn’t need a designed run to get home. At the same time, Hurts has three first team TDs, but two came in Weeks 1 and 3. Brown has had three since Week 7 and Barkley just picked up his third last week.
The Raiders have allowed 19 first half touchdowns, with a perfect 4/4 split in the first quarter between passing and rushing. I can’t imagine that they’ll be excited to go out there and play in the cold and Geno Smith may not even get the start, not that he’s been any good this season anyway.
Short prices, but the Eagles should score first. It’s just a matter of picking the right guys at that point and these two have had some nice frequency lately.
This is similar to the Jaguars against the Jets, where we have a huge discrepancy, but Travis Etienne is +350. With Bhayshul Tuten losing totes last week, I feel like Etienne is probably still worth it, but your guess is as good as mine on any of the receivers or TE Brenton Strange, who are all at depressed prices, even though Parker Washington is the only pass catcher with more than one first team TD.
See more NFL best bets on our Pro Picks page and get more NFL Week 15 content in our Betting Hub.
