Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season ended with a Monday night doubleheader. As always, our talented team of VSiN hosts and analysts are tackling some of the biggest betting stories coming out of the weekend. So, make sure you check out our live programming for all sorts of high-level analysis. Our Holiday Special features one of the best subscriber get-in prices that I have seen in my time with the company. A VSiN subscription will allow you to watch all of our live shows, and you’ll also get access to all of our premium written content and betting tools. But enough about that. Keep reading for my takeaways from Week 15, focusing on how the games impacted the weeks to come.

NFC Door Opens 

The Lions had won 11 straight games before facing the Bills on Sunday. On top of the winning, Detroit was blowing teams out. Several times this season, there was talk about how this Lions team is historically good. All of that made it difficult to realize that Detroit hadn’t yet secured its place atop the NFC standings. Well, we suddenly have a three-way tie at the top of the NFC, as the Lions, Eagles and Vikings are all 12-2 heading into Week 16. As of right now, these are the odds for each team to win the conference at DraftKings Sportsbook: 

 

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Eagles (+230)
Lions (+230)
Vikings (+600)

Philadelphia is probably the best bet. The Eagles have a tough game in D.C. this weekend, but they are favored to beat the Commanders. It’s also very unlikely they’ll lose home games against either the Cowboys or Giants in the final two weeks of the year — unless they opt to sit some of their starters. Meanwhile, Minnesota plays Seattle on the road, Green Bay at home and Detroit on the road. And the Lions play the Bears and 49ers on the road before hosting the Vikings in the final week of the regular season. Detroit is also dealing with one of the most insane injury reports you’ll ever see. 

Patrick Mahomes Sprains Ankle 

The Chiefs were on their way to a stress-free 21-7 win over the Browns last week, but then Patrick Mahomes suffered an injury. The three-time Super Bowl champion and Super Bowl MVP — and two-time NFL MVP — was absent in the second half of the fourth quarter, and it was later revealed that the 29-year-old suffered a high ankle sprain.

Andy Reid has already noted that Mahomes is week-to-week. There’s now some serious uncertainty in the near future, as the Chiefs play the Texans on Saturday. Then they have just three days of rest before taking on the Steelers in some Christmas NFL action. 

Kansas City is currently listed at +275 to win the AFC, and the team is up a game on Buffalo in the race to the top of the standings. But if Mahomes misses these next two games, it’s likely the Chiefs will be tied with the Bills in the near future. And Buffalo has the head-to-head win over Kansas City. 

Mahomes should be just fine for the playoffs. But given what we’ve seen from the Chiefs this season, the team probably needs to be playing its playoff games at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City’s point differential is just +70 this season, and the team finds weirder ways to win each week. That said, having to win multiple games on the road with this current roster feels unlikely. However, we do this with the Chiefs every year. And when push comes to shove, Kansas City will prioritize a healthy Mahomes over home-field advantage because he’s the guy that can defy the odds and win games when you least expect it. It’ll be interesting to see how these next few weeks play out. 

It does need to be noted that Mahomes took practice reps on Tuesday. So, perhaps the injury isn’t as bad as people first thought. Just monitor the situation throughout the week, but remember the tight turnaround from Week 16 to Week 17.

Final AFC Wild-Card Spot 

The Broncos and Chargers are very likely going to grab the final wild-card spots in the AFC, but I’m interested in seeing how this Bengals story ends. Cincinnati is just 6-8 right now but hosts Cleveland and Denver in the next two weeks, and the team then goes on the road to take on a Pittsburgh squad that will probably be resting starters. Well, if the Bengals win out and either the Broncos or Chargers lose out, Cincinnati could get in. 

The real one to watch is Denver. If the Broncos lose in Inglewood on Thursday, they’ll then go to Cincinnati to face the Bengals. After that they’ll host the Chiefs. That said, it isn’t out of the question that we’re heading into Week 18 with the Denver and Cincinnati games meaning a lot. And given the way Joe Burrow has played this season, I think we’d all like to see the Bengals in the mix. DraftKings has Cincinnati at +700 to make the postseason. 

Awards Updates 

Most Valuable Player

Josh Allen just threw for 362 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in a road win over an elite Lions team. Allen also rushed for 68 yards and another two scores. Over the last three weeks, Allen has thrown for seven touchdowns with no interceptions, and he has also rushed for a total of six scores. He has been absolutely lighting it up for Buffalo, and he even balled out in the team’s 44-42 loss to Los Angeles. 

Allen is now -900 at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the MVP award, and he probably won’t lose it from here. The Bills host the Patriots and Jets over the next two weeks, and they also play their Week 18 game against the Patriots in Foxborough. That said, Allen has a shot at leading Buffalo to the top seed in the AFC. 

However, it should be noted that Lamar Jackson’s numbers stack up nicely against Allen’s. After throwing for 290 yards and five touchdowns, and rushing for 65 yards, against the Giants last week, Jackson has now thrown for 3,580 yards with 34 touchdowns and only three picks on the season. His Passer Rating is 120.7. And Jackson has rushed for 743 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Allen has thrown for 3,395 yards with 25 touchdowns and five picks, and his Passer Rating is 103.5. But Allen has a big edge when it comes to rushing, as he has found the end zone 11 times. 

Is there anything Jackson can do to steal the award in the final three weeks of the year? Probably not. But it is interesting that Jackson has won this award twice, and this is by far the best year of his career. He also has an edge over Allen when it comes to PFF grade, as he’s at 92.2 and Allen is at 91.1. The passing isn’t even close, with Jackson at 91.2 and Allen at 81.5. 

Allen should probably win because he has never done so, and he’s also winning with a team that really lacks pass-catching weapons. But it should probably be a lot closer, and it might be worth grabbing Jackson on the off chance that the Bills don’t claim the top seed in the AFC and the Ravens find a way to win the AFC North. 

Coach of the Year 

With the Vikings having earned a 30-12 win over the Bears on Monday, it’s starting to feel like Kevin O’Connell is going to win Coach of the Year. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has him as the betting favorite, as he’s +110 to take home the honors. Here’s a look at the top 10 of the oddsboard: 

Kevin O’Connell (+110)
Dan Campbell (+250)
Sean Payton (+350)
Dan Quinn (+550)
Mike Tomlin (12-1)
Andy Reid (14-1)
Sean McDermott (16-1)
Jim Harbaugh (18-1)
Sean McVay (22-1)
Nick Sirianni (25-1) 

I’m still a little confused about Sirianni’s placement. If Campbell is second because Detroit is currently 12-2, shouldn’t Sirianni be near the top with Philadelphia having an identical record? The Eagles also have a great shot at finishing this season with the best record in football. I tweeted this on X on Monday, but it feels like we’d be having a completely different conversation about Sirianni had Saquon Barkley caught that ball and iced the Falcons game early in the season. However, people now view Sirianni as some sort of buffoon for being over-aggressive. He has done a damn good job this year. It’s time he gets some credit.

Realistically, you can make a good argument for half of the coaches in the league this year. But even though I backed Sirianni at 100-1 on November 14th, I think this thing should go to O’Connell. Minnesota had a regular season win total of 6.5, and everybody thought the Vikings were going to be in the NFC North basement. That was back when it looked like first-round pick J.J. McCarthy would be the team’s starter. But Minnesota has pretty much doubled its win total, and O’Connell did it with journeyman Sam Darnold as his quarterback. Nobody has done more with less. And if it’s not going to be O’Connell, it should probably be Payton. People clowned Denver for drafting Bo Nix, and Payton has turned him into a high-level starter in Year 1. And the team is on the verge of making the playoffs after having been picked to be one of the worst teams in football this season. 

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