Week 16 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

It sometimes takes a few years for a new coach to change the culture of a losing football team. The elite coaches can change everything in less than a year, something Jim Harbaugh has done with the Chargers. In January, the organization’s notoriously cheap owner, Dean Spanos, opened his checkbook and handed Harbaugh a five-year contract worth a reported $16 million per year. Spanos’ investment is already paying off.

My best bet on the NFL win totals board this season was the Chargers Over 8.5, and they topped that number Thursday by getting to 9-6 with a 34-27 victory over the Broncos. Harbaugh walked into a positive situation despite Los Angeles’ 5-12 record last season. Harbaugh inherited a star quarterback in Justin Herbert and a soft schedule. The Chargers’ wins have come against the Raiders, Panthers, Saints, Browns, Titans, Bengals, Falcons and Broncos (twice). The Chargers will be favored in their final two games against the Patriots and Raiders and appear headed for 10 or 11 wins and a playoff spot.

 

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My first and biggest division bet in the offseason was on the Eagles +135 to win the NFC East, and Philadelphia can clinch it with a win at Washington on Sunday. The Eagles-Commanders game is included in my Week 16 NFL best bets:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

Pittsburgh dropped to 5-1 in the underdog role with a loss at Philadelphia last week. The Steelers were anemic offensively, totaling only 10 first downs and 163 total yards, as quarterback Russell Wilson missed injured wideout George Pickens, who remains out. The good news for Pittsburgh is edge rusher T.J. Watt is expected to play. The underdog in this rivalry is 16-2-1 ATS in the past 10 years, and nine consecutive meetings have been decided by seven points or fewer, including the Steelers’ 18-16 win in Week 11. This is a revenge game for quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, who can prevent Pittsburgh from clinching the AFC North. I’m taking the points based on the ‘dog trend, but the Steelers will continue to struggle on offense, so I’m also playing Baltimore -1 on a teaser.

Week 16 NFL Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +7

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-14)

Josh Allen is chasing the MVP award and Buffalo still has a shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed, so there is plenty of motivation for the big home favorite. But after two huge offensive performances against the Rams and Lions, with the Bills scoring a total of 90 points, it would not be surprising if the Allen-led offense comes out a little flat and unfocused. New England (3-11) has been competitive most weeks, and rookie quarterback Drake Maye completed 81.1 percent of his passes in the past two games. I’m hoping the big ‘dog shows up to fight while the Bills experience a letdown following their impressive win at Detroit.

Week 16 NFL Best Bet: New England Patriots +14

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Commanders

Saquon Barkley, the league’s leading rusher with 1,688 yards, projects to have a big game against Washington’s weak run defense. Philadelphia’s passing attack was back in sync last week when quarterback Jalen Hurts and wideout A.J. Brown solved their differences. Meanwhile, the Commanders nearly blew a 17-0 third-quarter lead in a 20-19 win at New Orleans. Those who bet with recency bias will be high on Philadelphia and low on Washington, but I’ll go contrarian and forget what happened last week. Everything is not right with the Eagles, who have won 10 in a row with some lucky breaks during the streak. In the teams’ first meeting, the Commanders took a 10-6 lead into the fourth quarter before falling apart. I sense rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels will lead Washington to a win and delay Philadelphia’s clinching of the division.

Week 16 NFL Best Bet: Washington Commanders +3.5

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle’s home-field advantage is miniscule at this point. However, the Seahawks, 3-5 at home following a blowout loss to the Packers, did get some positive injury news this week on quarterback Geno Smith and running back Kenneth Walker, who are both expected to start. This is a bounce-back spot and an important game for the Seahawks, who are still in the hunt to win the NFC West. The Vikings should be on upset alert, especially with quarterback Sam Darnold showing some inconsistency. Seattle coach Mike Macdonald had his team trending in the right direction before the flop against Green Bay stopped a four-game winning streak.

Week 16 NFL Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks +3

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

It’s obvious Las Vegas would be better off dropping this game and improving its chances of getting the No. 1 overall draft pick, so that’s probably not going to happen. The Raiders’ coaches and players have not quit during a 10-game losing streak, and coach Antonio Pierce is giving his team a better shot to win by starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell. In a game each team needs to lose, the Jaguars can count on quarterback Mac Jones to do his part. I’m not actually betting this, but I don’t like many of the options this week and the return of O’Connell is enough to reach on the Raiders as a contest pick.

Week 16 NFL Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5

For more NFL Week 16 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 16 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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