Week 16 Saturday NFL Primer
In addition to getting our usual dose of Thursday, Sunday and Monday action, we’re getting two NFL games on Saturday and then some Christmas Day games before Monday Night Football. I’ll be focusing on the Saturday games here, previewing meetings between the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers and also the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers. As usual, all of our content for the week can be found at the Week 16 NFL Bet Hub. You can also get all of our picks for the week on the Pro Picks page. However, keep reading to find out what you’re dealing with for this fun two-game slate for Saturday, December 23rd.
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Odds as of Wednesday, December 20th at 3:00 pm PST
Cincinnati Bengals (-2, 37) at Pittsburgh Steelers – Saturday at 4:30 pm ET
The Bengals have won three games in a row coming into this one, while the Steelers are on a three-game losing streak. These teams are heading in opposite directions, despite being in somewhat similar situations. The difference is that Cincinnati has been able to win with backup quarterback Jake Browning, but Pittsburgh has fallen apart since Kenny Pickett went out. However, you can’t rule the Steelers out in this matchup — especially with Pickett potentially playing. These AFC North divisional games are always tough to call, and Pittsburgh is still a very good defensive team. The Steelers are ninth in the league in Defensive DVOA, and they’re ninth against the pass and 15th against the run. So, they do have what it takes to slow down this Bengals offense. The question is whether or not their offense will score enough against the Cincinnati defense. For the most part, the Bengals defense hasn’t been great this season — especially against the pass. And under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 62-41 against the spread when facing teams that allow 235.0 or more yards per game through the air. So, perhaps the Steelers will finally get the passing game going here. Pittsburgh has also been good at righting the ship under Tomlin, going 12-3 ATS when coming off a road loss by 14 or more points under him. The Steelers have won those games by an average of 10.5 points per game.
Buffalo Bills (-11.5, 44) at Los Angeles Chargers – Saturday at 8:00 pm ET
The Bills are playing really well right now, as they have won two in a row and three of their last four. Now, Buffalo gets to face a Los Angeles team that is fresh off a 63-21 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders had just been shutout by the Minnesota Vikings the week before, and that result says a lot about where the Los Angeles defense is right now. The Chargers actually opted to fire head coach Brandon Staley after the blowout, but it’s hard to imagine things getting much better right away. This is still a team that is starting Easton Stick at quarterback. Stick, a fifth-round pick out of North Dakota State in the 2019 NFL Draft, is largely unproven at this level. And he didn’t look very competent against the Raiders last week. With that in mind, this is a good opponent for the Bills to be facing. Buffalo is up to 10th in the league in Defensive DVOA right now, and the team has been much better on that side of the ball lately. So, the Bills will be tough to score on for the Chargers offense. And Buffalo’s offense is still loaded with talent, so Josh Allen and Co. should have a field day with the Los Angeles defense. It’s also worth noting that the Bills are 18-7-2 ATS when facing losing teams in the second half of the season under head coach Sean McDermott. They are not the type of team to let games like this get away, and this one could turn ugly.
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