Week 2 NFL Best Bets from Steve Makinen:

In looking back at my 5-5 record for week 1, I am realizing that I backed too many games. There were plays on Sunday and Monday that I regretted quickly. I will avoid making that mistake again, although in hindsight, the .500 mark could have been worse. Live and learn. With that said, after pouring through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report, I have come up with these plays for Week 2. Let’s go get ’em.

 

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Buffalo at Miami

Thursday. 8:15 p.m. (AMAZON)

For the last three days, I’ve heard several things repeatedly from football betting analysts regarding this Thursday night Buffalo-Miami game. 

First off, they’ve been obsessed with the fact that three of the four primetime games last week went Over the total, suggesting a change was coming in what we have become accustomed to over the last couple of seasons. 

Second, they’ve been glazing on Josh Allen’s performance on Sunday versus Arizona, how he is a frontrunner for MVP, and on top of that, how he has dominated the Dolphins’ defense of late. Well, the betting public at DraftKings has bought it hook, line, and sinker. At last check, 66% of the handle and 73% of the bets were on the Over. What could possibly go wrong? 

Regarding Allen, yes, he had a great game versus Arizona, but that was Arizona. A lot of the reason he fared well was because the Cardinals let him involve his legs too much in the game. The Dolphins have had a recent history of not doing that. If you recall, the concern at the outset of the season for the Bills was the inexperience at receiver. I don’t think we learned much about that potential weakness last week. This game will be a far bigger test. 

Also, for those that don’t know, despite these being two of the better offensive teams in recent years, they usually play lower-scoring games in Miami, as Under the total is 10-4-1 in the Buffalo-Miami series at Miami since 2010. Moreover, Miami is on a 7-2-1 Under surge in its last 10 Thursday night games. Finally, in the article I wrote about transitioning from Week 1 to Week 2, there was a totals system that showed teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under (65%) the total in Week 2 since 2005.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: This all adds up to an Under 48 in BUF-MIA play for me.

Las Vegas at Baltimore

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

If not for a questionable decision to punt on a late 4th-and-1 in the loss to the Chargers on Sunday, by all rights, the Raiders could be 1-0 going to Baltimore on Sunday. Instead, they are staring down the barrel of 0-2 as a probable loss as 8.5-point dogs looms. If you ask bettors at DraftKings, that loss is all but certain to come, and in resounding fashion, as 90% of the handle and 84% of the bets were on the Ravens as of Thursday. 

Those of you who have followed me or have seen my DK Betting Splits articles know what I feel about that happening. Essentially, it’s good for business (for DK). One thing we learned about the Raiders last year under Antonio Pierce however, is that they were gritty, and he almost always got the best effort out of his players. I expect similar resolve here, although I can’t promise they will win, I do believe they will compete. 

If you saw my article on Week 1 to Week 2 transition, you would recognize that three of the 11 active systems on that piece favored Las Vegas. 1) Teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 47-28-3 ATS (62.7%) in Week 2 over the last 12 seasons 2) Teams whose opponent played in the weeknight season-opening game and thus have extra rest are 15-23 SU but 22-15-1 ATS (59.5%) in Week 2 since 2005 3) In Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a phenomenal run of 18-21 SU but 26-11-2 ATS (70.3%) since 2014. Liens of 8.5-points or more are usually reserved for the bottom feeders, I don’t think the Raiders fit that billing.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Let’s go Las Vegas +8.5 on Sunday

New Orleans at Dallas

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

It was about two, maybe three minutes into New Orleans’ 47-10 rout of Carolina on Sunday that I knew I missed on it. The Saints looked explosive, QB Derek Carr looked reinvigorated, and the team displayed great balance on both sides of the football. Was it a one-week wonder? Was it only because they played the brutal Panthers? I don’t think so. Perhaps it has more to do with Carr and many of his weapons having a full year together now. I’m a bit perplexed then about how they go from scoring 47 points in one game to being an underdog of 6 points in the next. 

On the other sideline, was Dallas as good as it looked on Sunday, or was that more of a result of Cleveland playing awful? There were concerns about Dallas before the game. That’s why the Cowboys were an underdog in that game. Now, we have what looks to be a massive overreaction swing in oddsmakers getting behind head coach Mike McCarthy’s team. Naturally, public bettors are sold, as they are coming in on Dallas in droves (84% of money). A few bits of data indicate this could be an underdog play, though. 

First, underdogs are 6-0 ATS in the last six of the New Orelans-Dallas series at Dallas. Second, teams (NO) that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 27-23 SU and 27-19-2 ATS (58.7%) since 2006 in Week 2. Third, in Week 2 games between teams that are both 1-0 ATS, underdogs also rule at the betting window, 19-26 SU but 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%) since 2012. I don’t see this one being easy for Dallas with as sharp as New Orleans looked in all facets last week.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Let’s go New Orleans +6 points here

Cincinnati at Kansas City

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

As much as the NFL has become used to the Bengals not playing their best football very early in the season and then responding, this year, and in particular, this game feels different. I don’t think they will recover this time if they put up another ugly performance. Why? Two specific reasons. One, the Chiefs are a team that Cincinnati always gets up for, especially since both have been top AFC contenders for the last four years or so. Although they have lost the last two games, these matchups have been uber-competitive, with four of the last five being decided by 3 points exactly. 

Second, I blame a lot of what happened to the Bengals last week on being out of sync. The full offense had little time together before that game, and with Joe Burrow missing the second half of the season last year and the wide receivers in contract disputes, everything on that side of the ball just felt “off.” This week’s preparation for Kansas City is going to be extremely important, as bouncing back is critical. 

Take a look at this system affecting Zac Taylor’s team: Week 1 favorites of 6 points or more that lost their games have bounced back with a record of 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS (76%) in Week 2 since 2002. Plus, Burrow is 14-4 ATS as a dog of 7 points or less, with his team putting up 24.3 PPG. In other words, he is a live dog QB in situations like this. Kansas City won the opening night game but will have extra rest, and my transitional Week 1 to Week 2 article showed they are facing tough systems with the extra rest and by playing a second straight home game.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Let’s go Cincinnati +5.5 here

Pittsburgh at Denver

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

In one week, we have gone from hearing that this will be head coach Mike Tomlin’s first losing team to now being one of the frontrunners in the AFC North Division, perhaps the toughest in all the NFL. Why, because Pittsburgh kicked six field goals and won against a team with a free agent QB taking his first snaps for his new team? 

The Steelers didn’t perform overwhelmingly, they were just fortunate in the matchup. There are still massive concerns with this team’s ability to score, and in my betting book of do’s and dont’s for the NFL, it says do not back road favorites with struggling offenses. As it is, Pittsburgh is just 18-27 ATS as a favorite since 2018, so this is clearly a team that thrives on underdog motivation. 

Speaking of underdog motivation, underdogs are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 of this head-to-head series. We will also have a nice system in play based upon the results for both teams last week: In Week 2 games between teams that are both 1-0 ATS, underdogs also rule at the betting window, 19-26 SU but 27-17-1 ATS (61.4%) since 2012. I’m almost always a fade the public guy, and with almost ¾ of the bets at DK in on Pittsburgh, they could be in for a disappointment.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’m going Denver +2.5, although it would be nice to get +3 if it ever pops up

Chicago at Houston

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

This will be the one play this week where you will find me getting behind the public action, as I believe the offense results of last week for each of these teams were no fluke, and hence, one team is significantly more capable than the other. Chicago won and came from behind at 17-0 without scoring a single offensive touchdown. Now granted, in the past, when Bears teams have won double-digit type games, their defense and special teams were always responsible for many scores throughout the season. That is not something I can rely on after just one game, however, and with the ineffectiveness of rookie QB Caleb Williams in the opener, I have to go against them here. 

The Texans are usually a tough matchup for the Bears, as they are 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings. There are also some interesting Sunday Night Football trends to consider, with home teams on SNF coming off a win on a current 19-3 SU and 15-7 ATS (68.2%) surge and Chicago owning seven straight SNF outright and ATS losses, all by double-digits. The Bears are also 24-41 ATS in road/neutral games since 2016, and rookie QBs have tendencies showing poor ATS performance on the road and in non-conference action.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’m laying the points in this one with Houston (-6)

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

In my opinion, this is the massive overreaction game of the week, and it comes at a perfect time, a stand-alone Monday night game pitting one of the betting public’s darlings (Philadelphia) versus an Atlanta team whose near full bandwagon last week has since been emptied after an ugly offensive performance in the opener. 

I didn’t like Atlanta’s chances this season because of what would or wouldn’t happen in Week 1. I liked them because I felt QB Kirk Cousins would give them a professional upgrade at the sport’s most key position. Frankly, much like Burrow and the Bengals, last week was the first time Cousins took snaps in competitive action since his Achilles injury last fall. Making things even more challenging, it was with a new team in a new offense. 

I believe Atlanta is way more capable than it showed last week. Take a look at this system regarding transfer veteran QB being too big of underdogs: Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 40-66 SU but 60-41-5 ATS (59.4%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more. In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 9-11 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) in their last 20 tries against teams scoring higher than that. 

Furthermore, won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 30-28 SU but just 19-37-2 ATS in the last 58 MNF games not matching teams with identical records. This feels like a very public game, with bettors flocking to the Eagles now that they showed life offensively in the opening win over Green Bay. I won’t be surprised to see them come back down to earth a bit here.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’ll take the Falcons +6.5 on Monday night

For more NFL Week 2 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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