Week 3 NFL Predictions
There’s no way around it; my NFL bets got destroyed in Week 2. But the absolutely infuriating thing is that the TSI numbers overall did fantastic. It was like I just happened to pick the few losers of the bunch to bet on. Despite donating a few units to the books, I am very happy with how the model as a whole is doing this NFL season, so I trust those results will bounce back quickly and we’ll have a lot more success, like we did in Week 1. I can’t believe I’m already having to make modifications to the numbers for QB injuries, as Brock Purdy, Justin Fields, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow and JJ McCarthy are all expected to miss games moving forward. Here are my favorite early week plays for Week 3:
Editor’s Note: For those unfamiliar with the T Shoe Index, get a full explanation here.
New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers (-1), O/U 44.5
Both teams are 1-1 coming into this game, with the Steelers coming off a loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and the Patriots are coming off a high-flying win over Miami. Pittsburgh has yet to cover a spread, while New England is 1-1 ATS. TSI projects the Patriots -2 here at home, so it was interesting to see Pittsburgh open as a road favorite, although that line seems to be coming toward the Patriots. Looking at just how these teams have played so far and removing prior
expectation from the equation, I’d actually make the Patriots a 5.5-point favorite here, so I love the Pats in this spot, though taking +1 doesn’t do a ton of good – barring overtime – so I’m going to play them on the moneyline.
NFL Pick: Patriots ML -105
Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) vs New Orleans Saints, O/U 41.5
As I mentioned, Seattle is coming off an impressive two-score win over the Steelers, which was one of my better bets of the week last week. New Orleans is both 0-2 straight up and ATS, but they’ve played both the 49ers and the Cardinals down to the wire, losing by just six points per game so far. I think we’re getting a bit of an inflated number on Seattle coming off of a 31-17 win against what is clearly an overrated Steelers team, so getting the full touchdown and hook here is extremely enticing, especially when TSI projects Seahawks -5, and with the way these teams have been priced so far, the expected spread would be about Saints -3, so we’re getting some great value on the number with the Saints.
NFL Pick: Saints +7.5
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