Week 4 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:

Let’s take a look at my Week 4 NFL Best Bets:

 

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Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5)

Five days after Raiders coach Antonio Pierce blasted some unnamed players for making “business decisions” during an embarrassing loss to the Panthers, Pierce announced his two biggest stars will be sitting this one out. Edge rusher Maxx Crosby and receiver Davante Adams will miss Sunday’s home game against the Browns.

Adams is unhappy with the Raiders’ losing ways, according to numerous reports, and would like to be traded. Adams has denied those reports. The NFL’s diva wide receivers always seem selfish and unhappy, yet always deny it. Adams, who suffered a hamstring injury during Thursday’s practice, will miss a game for the first time since 2021. The bigger loss is Crosby, who has an ankle injury and would miss a game for the first time in his six-year career.

Crosby is more important to the point spread and the flow of the game due to the pressure he could put on Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson, who’s a disaster. Watson has completed only 57.8 percent of his passes while getting sacked 16 times, including eight sacks in the Browns’ loss to the Giants in Week 3.

I bet the Raiders -1 early in the week and assumed Adams and Crosby would be playing. I’ll stick with the bet, but I’m not using Las Vegas as a contest play in either the Circa Million or Westgate SuperContest. The favorite has flipped to Browns -1.5.

Pierce’s comment about “business decisions” was a lame excuse to deflect blame after an embarrassing 36-22 loss to Carolina, which led 33-7 early in the fourth quarter. The Raiders’ coaching staff did not have the team prepared to play. Crosby is a warrior who has proven he always wants to play, but is Adams now making a business decision? Will Pierce and his staff have the team motivated and prepared this week?

Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew’s job is on the line. Minshew has played poorly in the two losses, and he’s likely to get benched if the team drops this one and falls to 1-3. I’m expecting Minshew to heat up and lead the Raiders to a win, but I don’t like the bet as much now as I did early in the week before the injury news.

My other Week 4 NFL best bets:

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Saints quarterback Derek Carr, a Raiders castoff, led the offense to an average of 45.5 points in the first two victories over Carolina and Dallas. Carr reverted to his classic form and stunk last week against a better defense in a 15-12 loss to the Eagles. Carr passed for 142 yards while New Orleans was outgained 460-219 by Philadelphia. The Saints are dealing with injury issues on the offensive line and running back Alvin Kamara is listed as questionable with two injuries. After blowing its shot to beat Kansas City in Week 3, Atlanta should bounce back and ride running back Bijan Robinson to a much-needed division win.

Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons -3

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Indianapolis Colts

This matchup seems to clearly favor the Pittsburgh defense, which ranks No. 1 in yards allowed (229 per game) and scoring (8.7 ppg) and No. 2 in rushing yards (71.3 per game). Indianapolis quarterback Anthony Richardson has completed only 36 passes while throwing six interceptions in three games. The Steelers’ front seven will be focused on stopping running back Jonathan Taylor and Richardson in the run game, and edge rusher T.J. Watt will be all over Richardson. The Colts are depleted with injuries on their subpar defense, so Pittsburgh quarterback Justin Fields should be able to continue his efficient play. The Colts are 1-8 ATS in their past nine as home underdogs of three points or fewer.

Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -2

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Buying on bad news — or buying stock in a team that was bad the previous week — is typically a successful contrarian handicapping angle in NFL betting. Jacksonville has been really bad, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence is finally getting the criticism he deserves after losing eight straight starts. I hate the Jaguars, but they are desperate ‘dogs in a division game, and a trend is working in their favor. Lawrence’s last win came against Houston last season and he has won two of three road starts against the Texans. After hanging 29 points on a bad Colts defense in the season opener, Houston has scored a total of 26 points in the past two games.

Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Some things never change, including the Chargers’ bad injury luck. Even if quarterback Justin Herbert makes the start, his mobility will be limited with a sore ankle. The Chargers know they will be without injured offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt and linebackers Joey Bosa and Junior Colson, as well as suspended safety Derwin James. The Chiefs are not playing great, but they have enough to overwhelm this injury-riddled home underdog. I played Kansas City -1 in two six-point teasers and used -7 as a contest play.

Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -7

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

The path to victory for the Bills will be through quarterback Josh Allen, as always. Baltimore’s league-worst pass defense is allowing 291.7 yards per game. Allen has been outstanding, completing 75 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and no turnovers. The Ravens’ path to victory will be through the running of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who combined for 238 rushing yards against Dallas. The Bills come in fat and happy at 3-0, and the Ravens (1-2) should be playing with a greater sense of urgency.

Week 4 NFL Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens -2.5

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

Season: 6-8-1

For more NFL Week 4 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 4 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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