Week 5 NFL Betting Splits Systems Update:
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 71-51 ATS (58.2%) record for +14.9 units and an ROI of +12.2%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, DETROIT
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 219-264 ATS (45.3%) for -71.4 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, NY GIANTS, CHICAGO, LA CHARGERS, SEATTLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 218-268 ATS (44.9%) for -76.8 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, NY GIANTS, CHICAGO, LA CHARGERS, SAN FRANCISCO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games since the start of the 2023 season, DK majority handle groups have been quite sharp, going 131-109 ATS (54.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, LA RAMS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5-point favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 142-116 ATS (55%) record for +14.4 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LAS VEGAS, CLEVELAND, INDIANAPOLIS, MINNESOTA, DETROIT
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: What is the definition of a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Well, over the last three years when a “super-majority” handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 14-27 ATS (34.1%) for -15.7 units and an ROI of -38.3%.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 139-161 ATS (46.3%) and 139-158 ATS (46.8%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: Number of bets majority groups have been very sharp judging games when there is an exactly one-game win difference between two teams in a matchup. The teams they have gotten behind boast an amazing 150-115 ATS (56.6%) record for +23.5 units over the last three seasons. The highlight of the one-win separation games has been when bettors back the ROAD team, as these majority groups have gone 84-59 ATS for 58.7% and +19.1 units of profit.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LAS VEGAS, CHICAGO, DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO, ATLANTA, BUFFALO
Alternatively, when there is a difference of 2 or more wins in the standings, these majority number of bets groups have struggled to a 186-207 ATS (47.3%) mark.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, NY GIANTS, LA CHARGERS
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years, it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last three years, going 170-131 ATS (56.5%)!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHI-GB, DET-ARI, SF-SEA, BUF-LAR
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last three seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 66-57 ATS (53.7%). This number for a “supermajority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for handle has also produced a 93-83 (52.8%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYG-WAS, IND-PIT, CLE-NYJ
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units (11-12 for -2.2 units in 2026). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): PHI-JAX, BAL-ATL
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost regularly, going just 113-129 (46.7%) for -28.9 units over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): CIN-MIA, CHI-GB, MIN-NO, DEN-LAC, BAL-ATL
For more NFL Week 5 best bets, visit the NFL Week 5 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
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