​​On any given Sunday, it’s never easy to pick five winners. There are weeks, however, when it’s easy to come up with five NFL plays and submit them confidently for a contest, whether it’s the Circa Million or Westgate SuperContest. This seems to be the toughest week of the season so far because these games are ugly. Still, I always welcome the challenge, and here are my five best bets — or contest plays — for Week 8:

 

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Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Derrick Henry has 873 yards and is the league’s leading rusher by a 206-yard margin, but Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson deserves to be the MVP favorite. Baltimore (5-2) power rates as my top team in the NFL, slightly ahead of Kansas City (6-0). So while it might be crazy to bet against the Ravens, I’ll give it a shot anyway. The Browns have lost four games by seven points or fewer, including the 21-14 decision to the Bengals a week ago. Cincinnati was limited to 12 first downs and 223 total yards, so Cleveland’s defense was not the problem. The solution could be the quarterback change to Jameis Winston and the return of running back Nick Chubb. After the season-ending injury to Deshaun Watson, expect to see a team with a positive attitude adjustment. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it for now. It’s important to be transparent, so I’ll admit this is only a contest play and not a bet with real money.

Week 8 NFL Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +8.5

Chicago Bears (-3) at Washington Commanders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Some will say the Bears are on a roll at 4-2, with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams gaining steam while the defense shows its strength. We need to see more. Chicago has defeated four losing teams (Titans, Rams, Panthers and Jaguars). Unfortunately, we might not see the league’s best rookie quarterback, Washington sensation Jayden Daniels, in this game. Daniels has a rib injury and practiced on a limited basis on Fridays. Daniels has a chance to play, but anyone who has had bruised ribs knows it will be difficult for Daniels to play freely while in pain. I’ll still roll with the Commanders getting a field goal, even if it’s veteran Marcus Mariota starting in place of Daniels. Mariota stepped in last week and completed 18 of 23 passes for 205 yards and two touchdowns while adding 34 yards on the ground — and, yes, Mariota did that against the pathetic Panthers, but it still counts.

Week 8 NFL Best Bet: Washington Commanders +3

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

Geno Smith runs hot and cold, but the Seattle quarterback is capable of putting up big numbers. Smith, who leads the league with 1,985 yards passing, threw for 395 yards in a shootout loss at Detroit and led the Seahawks to a 34-14 win at Atlanta a week ago. On the downside, his top receiver, DK Metcalf, is injured and listed as doubtful. Seattle still has plenty of playmakers — receivers Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back Kenneth Walker — to help Smith move the ball against the Buffalo defense. There is always a fear factor in betting against Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who has 12 touchdown passes and no interceptions, but that’s why the Seahawks are home ‘dogs.

Week 8 NFL Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks +3

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Believe it or not, Las Vegas was the last team to beat Kansas City before it rolled to a Super Bowl win and started this season 6-0. The Raiders pulled off that Christmas Day road upset by getting two defensive touchdowns and dominating on the ground. It’s hard to find that Raiders defense and rushing attack now. Even when the Chiefs don’t play well, they find ways to win — Patrick Mahomes threw two picks with no touchdown passes in a 28-18 victory over the injury-riddled 49ers in Week 7 — and will win this one. Still, the Kansas City offense is severely shorthanded, and Mahomes is struggling. Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew can occasionally get hot, and maybe he will on this occasion. I know this is a reach with an ugly ‘dog, but betting the NFL is not always a beauty contest. If this line moves back to double digits on Sunday, I’ll put a small bet on the underdog. As of now, getting fewer than 10 points, it’s only a contest play.

Week 8 NFL Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +9.5

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC)

When the Steelers bodyslammed Aaron Rodgers and the Jets last week, it was not a big surprise. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is money as a home underdog at 20-6-3 ATS. Tomlin is now a home favorite, a role in which he has been less successful, and the Giants’ trend is to play their best as road ‘dogs. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has defeated the Browns and Seahawks on the road this season, and he played well enough to win at Washington. His first start for Pittsburgh was positive. I’m not sure we should buy into Russell Wilson quite yet.

Week 8 NFL Best Bet: New York Giants +6

Last week: 2-3 against the spread
Season: 14-18-3

For more NFL Week 8 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 8 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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