NFL First Touchdown
Six teams are unavailable this week, as we start to take a look at the First Touchdown Scorer betting market for Week 8. The Lions (57.1%), Raiders (42.9%), Rams (57.1%), Cardinals (42.9%), Seahawks (57.1%), and Jaguars (71.4%) are all idle, taking away four teams that have scored the first touchdown in their games more often than not this season. Does that give us fewer options in the Week 8 First Touchdown Scorer department? Read on to find out…
The Packers did not score the game’s first TD last week, so nobody is perfect anymore. A fitting metaphor for life as well. Well, the Jets continue to be perfectly imperfect, as the only team failing to score the first TD in a game this season. The Titans scored first last week, so they are no longer in the doghouse, but they are still sleeping outside with the Bengals and Saints, who are also at 14.3% for the season.
Before looking at the NFL Week 8 schedule and some potential mismatches, let’s update the first TD scorers by position for this season, including last week’s numbers.
QB: 0 (14)
RB: 9 (63)
WR: 12 (79)
TE: 5 (40)
D/ST: 1 (5)
No TD: 3 (12)
Running backs had 10 first team TDs in each of the last four weeks, but dropped down to nine this week, as the divide between WR and RB grew for the first time in three weeks. WR had caught eight each of the last two weeks. TE are on pace to destroy last season’s number with 63.
For the second straight week, three teams failed to score a TD. They were the Dolphins, Raiders, and Jets. The Raiders now have three games without a TD. The Jets have not scored a TD in back-to-back games.
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team
Using the First Touchdown Tracker as a guide, here are the results from 2025:
| Regular Season | First TD of game/games played |
| Colts | 6/7 (85.7%) |
| Giants | 6/7 (85.7%) |
| Packers | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| Steelers | 5/6 (83.3%) |
| 49ers | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Jaguars | 5/7 (71.4%) |
| Bears | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Bills | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Falcons | 4/6 (66.7%) |
| Broncos | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Chargers | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Cowboys | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Dolphins | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Eagles | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Rams | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Lions | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Seahawks | 4/7 (57.1%) |
| Texans | 3/6 (50%) |
| Browns | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Bucs | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Cardinals | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Chiefs | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Panthers | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Raiders | 3/7 (42.9%) |
| Ravens | 2/6 (33.3%) |
| Commanders | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Patriots | 2/7 (28.6%) |
| Vikings | 1/6 (16.7%) |
| Bengals | 1/7 (14.3%) |
| Saints | 1/7 (14.3%) |
| Titans | 1/7 (14.3%) |
| Jets | 0/7 (0%) |
The only thing I would say here is that regression is coming for the teams at the extreme top and extreme bottom. The Ravens were the only team north of 80% last season and we have four at present for this season. Similarly, the lowest success rate last season on first TDs was 22.2% (Steelers), followed by the Giants at 23.5%. We currently have five teams under 28.6%. They should get better as we go along. Well, maybe everybody but the Jets.
I’m also tracking players to score at least three first team TDs for their teams. That list will grow each week. Here it is entering Week 8:
2025 First Touchdown (FTD) Top Scorers by Team
| Top players (minimum 3 team-firsts) | Team’s First TD | Game’s First TD |
| Tyler Warren (IND) | 3 | 3 |
| De’Von Achane (MIA) | 3 | 2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 3 | 2 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 3 | 2 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 3 | 2 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 3 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 3 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 3 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 3 | 1 |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | 3 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 3 | 0 |
| Raiders No Touchdown | 3 | 0 |
LOL at the Raiders.
I mentioned this last week, but with the Ravens off of a bye and Lamar Jackson back, it seems relevant. Henry scored seven first team TDs last season and all seven were the first TD of the game. You can see how this season has gone for him.
This week’s additions – Judkins, Ertz, Johnston, McCaffrey, Chase, the hapless Raiders.
With that, let’s get to the Week 8 action and look at some mismatches from 2025 and some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible.
NFL Week 8 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2025
Vikings (16.7%) at Chargers (57.1%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Dolphins (57.1%) at Falcons (66.7%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Browns (42.9%) vs. Patriots (28.6%)
Giants (85.7%) vs. Eagles (71.4%)
Bills (66.7%) vs. Panthers (42.9%)
Bears (66.7%) vs. Ravens (33.3%)
49ers (71.4%) vs. Texans (50%)
Buccaneers (42.9%) vs. Saints (14.3%) – 4:05 p.m. ET
Cowboys (57.1%) vs. Broncos (57.1%) – 4:25 p.m. ET
Titans (14.3%) vs. Colts (85.7%)
Packers (83.3%) vs Steelers (83.3%) – 8:20 p.m. ET
Commanders (28.6%) vs. Chiefs (42.9%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.
NFL Week 8 First Touchdown Predictions
Lines current at time of publish
Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.
Los Angeles Chargers: Keenan Allen +900, Oronde Gadsden II +1000
The only week that the Vikings have scored the first TD is Week 3 against the Bengals, the game right after Joe Burrow was hurt and placed on long-term IR. In the five games where the Vikings haven’t scored first, we’ve seen a QB, two RB, a WR, and a TE have the honors, so there isn’t really a pattern to pick on here.
I hate to take a Thursday game and limit the upside of this article for the weekend, but this is one of the bigger mismatches that we have, even though the Chargers have not scored the first TD in three of their last four games. With 43 pass attempts against 30 rush attempts, and with Omarion Hampton out, pass catchers were my focus here. The Chargers also only have two rushing TDs and zero in the first or fourth quarters. They’ve only scored six offensive TD in the first half this season, so that is a bit concerning, but the Vikings have only scored three. So maybe a first-half Under is a good bet on Thursday.
Anyway, I went with Allen and Gadsden here. McConkey is the shortest of the three WR and Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme may force Herbert to have to get rid of the ball a little bit quicker, which, theoretically, means maybe he’ll be looking to bigger targets. Obviously Gadsden is the biggest of the targets. The Vikings have only allowed 50 receptions to WR this season. They’ve allowed 34 to tight ends. I’ll take a shot with Herbert’s most trusted pass catcher and also his biggest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rachaad White +500, Tez Johnson +1600
The Bucs are a MASH unit right now. Mike Evans joined Jalen McMillan on the sidelines for a while. Emeka Egbuka is banged-up. So is Baker Mayfield, but that’s nothing new for him. But, the Bucs do line up against a Saints team that has allowed six passing touchdowns in the first quarter this season and eight total, while only scoring one themselves.
White has four red zone targets and is an every-down back with Bucky Irving out. So White can be used in a variety of ways and the Saints have allowed a total of seven TD to RB, with five rushing and two passing. With the limited number of trusted options, he just has to make the cut here.
As far as Johnson goes, with Egbuka and Evans dinged the last couple of weeks, he’s seen a big uptick in reps. He played 71.7% of the offensive snaps against the 49ers and 68.1% of the snaps against the Lions with a season-high nine targets and four receptions. He only has 10 catches on 19 targets, but has a TD in back-to-back games and it’s probably him or Sterling Shepard to be the best receiving option here. I’ll take $6 more on Johnson’s price, especially with the Saints allowing 9.7 yards per pass attempt in the first quarter, so they’ve given up some big plays.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor +230, Tyler Warren +650
I won’t get cute with the Colts here, who easily have the biggest mismatch of the week. As horrible as the Titans are, they have not allowed a passing touchdown in the first quarter of a game yet this season. But, they have allowed four rushing TDs, so Taylor gets the obvious nod here. He also has 36 red zone carries, the most in the league and he’s one of three backs (Josh Jacobs, Christian McCaffrey) with at least 30 attempts inside the 20.
The Titans have allowed a league-high 10 rushing TD to RB and only one receiving TD out of the backfield, so Taylor gets the call here.
Now that the Colts have worked Warren fully into the offense, he has more red zone targets than any WR. Michael Pittman Jr. has eight and four TD, while Josh Downs has six and just one TD. Warren has nine targets and three touchdowns. Truth be told, I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a package of running plays for Warren inside the five. He had 26 rush attempts as a senior at Penn State.
The last two weeks, the Colts have scored on their first possession with Warren and Taylor, respectively.
Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season and thanks again to Steph for doing such a great job on this article in 2022-23 and the tracker.
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