Week 9 NFL Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Steve Makinen:
There’s an old adage that says, “Our greatest glory is not in never failing, but in getting up every time we fall”. Well, I fell, failed, floundered, and used a whole bunch of other “F” words this past weekend in the NFL, as I experienced my worst week in over a decade, 1-8. Looking back, I don’t know if there’s anything specific I would have done differently, except perhaps not take a couple of the more public plays that were blinking on the DK betting splits board. That said, I did take the disaster very seriously and dug immediately into my database to freshen up the team and head coaching trends I’ve been running on the VSiN Analytics Reports each week. Next week, QB trends will be upgraded. Hopefully, it will help me avoid some of the pitfalls that ailed me in Week 8. As we press into November and get back up on the horse, I aim to build on my now 36-31-2 ATS (53.7%) mark with this set of Week 9 NFL best bets.
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New England at Tennessee
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)
At this point, regardless of who ends up starting at quarterback for New England on Sunday, you have to think that the future looks a lot brighter for the Patriots than it does for the Titans right now. Head coach Jerod Mayo’s team comes off a nice upset win over the Jets, and the offense is showing signs of life. Meanwhile, the Titans come off a 52-14 loss in Detroit and have scored less than 14 PPG in their last three contests. This is where QB controversies start to rear their ugly heads, if they haven’t already. How could Tennessee be laying more than a FG to anyone at this point? It doesn’t surprise me to me the majority of handle and bet volume backing New England. As such, when the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have produced adequate records, 61-54 ATS (53%) going back to September 2022. Looking closer at the three-game losing skid of Tennessee, NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 55-35 SU BUT 34-53-3 ATS (39.1%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
Week 9 NFL Best Bet: Let’s take the +3.5 points with New England
New Orleans at Carolina
1:00 p.m. (CBS)
For the last few weeks, it could have legitimately been argued that the Panthers would have had a QB mismatch advantage over the Saints in head-to-head play, with Andy Dalton a clearly better answer than Spencer Rattler. However, both teams have not changed their starting QBs as we head into their head-to-head matchup on Sunday, and its flipped completely the opposite. Carolina goes with Bryce Young, while Derek Carr returns for the Saints. And with all due respect to Carr’s comments this week about being “no savior,” I will acknowledge that at least this is going from an amateur to a professional at the sports key position. New Orleans’ offense and the respected weapons were lost without him.
Besides that aspect of this matchup, there are several nice situational spots that lend me to believe that laying points with the Saints could be worth it. First, New Orleans head coach Dennis Allen is on 10-9 SU and 12-6 ATS run vs. poor offenses, scoring <19 PPG since 2012. Next, New Orleans is on a 14-3 SU and ATS run in same-season rematch games and 16-1 ATS in its last 17 such contests on the road. At the same time, Carolina: 13-21 SU and 11-23 ATS in rematches since 2014. And finally, in regards to the first game between these teams, won by the Saints, 47-10, teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 81-25 SU and 67-39 ATS (63.2%) in the rematch.
Week 9 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go New Orleans -7 in Carolina
Miami at Buffalo
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (CBS)
It feels to me as if whatever fight may have been left or restored in the Dolphins with the return of QB Tua Tagovailoa was probably knocked out with the home loss to the Cardinals on Sunday. With a 2-5 mark currently and what looks to be a very difficult schedule remaining, by all intents and purposes, this looks to be a lost season for Miami. If so, is there any reason to consider that they would put up a massive fight against a team that is staking claims to be the best in football right now?
When these teams met on Thursday night of Week 2, the game Tua got hurt, Buffalo won big 31-10, forcing three Tua interceptions. For this second time around, NFL teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 81-25 SU and 67-39 ATS (63.2%) in the rematch. Furthermore, in a trend I dug out earlier this week, I found that Miami’s head coach Mike McDaniel is on an 0-8 SU and ATS skid as a single-digit underdog.
Week 9 NFL Best Bet: Let’s lay the 6-points with Buffalo at home
Denver at Baltimore
1:00 p.m. (CBS)
My first instinct when I saw this massive line in the Denver-Baltimore game, a matchup between teams with identical 5-3 records, was that it seemed like too many points. However, I know how Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson has struggled throughout his career as a big favorite. I also know that since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks like Bo Nix facing underdog lines of 6.5-points or more, have won just 18 games, going 18-114 SU and 50-78-4 ATS (39.1%). Thus, I couldn’t convince myself that either team was the right wager. However, with both QBs in spots where there have been historical struggles, wouldn’t an Under make sense?
Look at all of the great info I have on that side of the total. First, over 80% of the handle at DK thinks this has the possibility of a shootout, siding with the Over. The magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). When looking at the recent history between these teams, the last four games of the DEN-BAL series also went Under the total. Finally, in digging through the head coach trend database this week, I found that Denver’s Sean Payton is 35-16 Under the total when coming off a double-digit win since 2013, Denver is 17-2 Under the total when coming off a double-digit victory since 2017. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this wind up being a 22-14 type of game.
Week 9 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 45.5 in Denver-Baltimore
Indianapolis at Minnesota
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
For as much as the Vikings were very competitive in their loss at Los Angeles last Thursday night, it was still a loss, and there are obvious concerns with the recent history of this franchise that the hot start may wind up being a distant memory by season’s end. Their upcoming matchup with Indianapolis on Sunday night is a tough one, too, as the Colts have opted for veteran QB Joe Flacco as the starter. They have done some of their best work against statistically strong teams, going 16-14 SU and 23-7 ATS vs. elite teams with point differentials of >=+4.5 PPG since 2015.
Not to mention the fact that Indy has won its last five ATS vs. Minnesota, and the Vikings are only 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite, including seven straight ATS losses. Looking at the recent history of SNF games, we also find that home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone 18-13 SU but only 12-19 ATS (38.7%) in their last 31. Plus, home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 13-20 SU and 12-20-1 ATS (37.5%) in their last 33. This is a tough spot for the Vikings, and the sole pressure is to win and stop the bleeding. Covering is a distant second.
Week 9 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Indianapolis +5 as the live dog
Washington at NY Giants
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
For those of you who have followed my best bets for both college and pro football, you probably recognize that I spend a lot less time discussing statistics and ratings in the NFL than I do for college. That is because I believe that college is more of a team strength game and pro is more of a situational game. That said, if you examine my effective strength defensive ratings for the season so far, you will see that the Commanders and Giants are both among the top 11 defenses in the NFL in terms of holding teams below their scoring averages. It fits my theory about this game being an Under play.
There are some legit concerns with Washington’s offense after the struggles to get the ball in the end zone versus Chicago, almost as if the Bears laid out a perfect plan for slowing QB Jayden Daniels. The Giants come off a higher-scoring game in Pittsburgh and by the trends I am about to share, you can probably surmise that back-to-back Overs are rare for New York. None of this is stopping an extraordinary percentage of handle at DK (93%) opting for an Over as of Thursday. No worries, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022 and 2023 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). This series has seen Under the total go 6-0-1 in the last seven at New York. I’ve also shared this trend several times lately: NY Giants are 22-3 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020. Plus, I also know that rookie QBs are on a slide of 42-94 SU and 55-77-4 ATS (41.7%) versus divisional opponents, meaning I wouldn’t expect an offensive outburst from Daniels & Co. here.
Week 9 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 44 in Washington-NY Giants
LA Rams at Seattle
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)
One thing I hate in the NFL is quick reaction assumptions. I believe we are being fed a storyline that all is well with the Rams now that they have their starting wide receivers back on the field. I can see where the thought comes from as LA beat Minnesota last Thursday night, but that game was a different animal, with the Vikings coming off short rest and a devastating loss four days earlier. It doesn’t take into account that this Rams’ pass defense still allows a brutal 7.4 yards per attempt, something QB Geno Smith and the Seahawks are very capable of exploiting, especially with WR DK Metcalf expected to return.
Even still, much of the money that has flowed in early week loves the visiting and favored Rams. Over the past two seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 96-111 ATS (46.4%). In NFL divisional games of 2022 & 2023, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group is just 71-100 ATS (41.5%). And since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 80-105 ATS (43.2%).
This is the trifecta of fading public money. I mentioned the short rest before in the Rams-Vikings contest, thus I need to share this trend now: LA Rams’ head coach Sean McVay is 0-8 ATS when his team plays with extra rest since 2022. He is also just 7-13 SU and 4-14 ATS in its last 20 November games. If all that weren’t enough, we have Seattle heading into its bye week with a 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS mark in its last 13 games in that situation. Plus, the Seahawks are backed by a popular pre-bye week home dog system: Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 32-19-3 ATS since ’15, 62.7%)
Week 9 NFL Best Bet: I see enough to give Seattle (+1.5) a great chance to cover AND win
Detroit at Green Bay
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
The big game on this week’s board comes from Green Bay, where red-hot Detroit comes into town on a five-game winning streak and off a 52-14 win against the Titans. However, NFL teams that win by 35 points or more in a home or neutral field game have not been good bets in the follow-up contest, going 21-17 SU but 12-25-1 ATS (32.4%) when favored in their last 38 opportunities. The Lions are in very rare territory, being saddled with a line of -3.5 at Lambeau Field. There have only been two road favorites of this magnitude since 2017 at Green Bay, and both lost outright. They have not been favored by this much in Titletown since prior to my database beginning some 33 years ago. Is it time to rewrite history, or is this just putting too much undue pressure on head coach Dan Campbell’s team?
Like the Rams above, the Lions are falling into the big public fade trifecta, where they are being backed heavily by the public despite being divisional road favorites. The Packers have been fantastic underdogs under head coach Matt LaFleur, going 13-5 SU and 15-3 ATS as an underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019. They have also been remarkably consistent this season, losing their two games by just 7 points combined.
Heading into their bye week, they will be backed by three legacy systems I rely on a lot each season: 1) Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 54-21-2 ATS since ‘13, 72%) 2) Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 68-34-2 ATS since ’10, 66.7%) 3) Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 32-19-3 ATS since ’15, 62.7%). The Packers as a franchise are 4-1 SU and ATS in pre-bye week games under head coach Matt LaFleur, and I don’t expect them to get run over here. I like it with QB Jordan Love in, or wherever the line moves if Malik Willis is forced to go.
Week 9 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go Green Bay +3.5 as the home dog
Tampa Bay at Kansas City
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
You have to figure that one of these weeks, QB Patrick Mahomes is going to bust out and have a huge, statistically prolific game, right? Well, that would seem to be the sentiment of the betting public, with over 73% of both the handle and bet volume opting for an Over in this contest. Here’s the thing: even if he does, the Chiefs have a very rich history of stifling opponents defensively at home. They are 70-37 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010, and head coach Andy Reid boasts a 31-10 Under record when his teams have been favored at home by 7 points or more.
Do we really believe that QB Baker Mayfield is going to thrash the Chiefs’ defense that is #2 in the NFL right now in effective points allowed, and giving up just 6.5 yards per pass attempt, without his top two weapons in tow? As it is, KC boasts a trend showing they have gone Under the total in the last nine games they’ve faced against elite offenses, scoring at least 27 PPG. There are plenty of trends showing how Mahomes struggles as a big favorite and that laying a lot of points on MNF rarely works out. Let’s assume it’s the strength of the Chiefs, the defense, that wins the day.
Week 9 NFL Best Bet: Let’s go UNDER 46 in Tampa Bay-Kansas City
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