Week 14 of the 2024 college football season was absolutely nuts, and things weren’t much calmer in Week 13 of the NFL season. As always, our talented team of VSiN hosts and analysts are tackling some of the biggest betting stories coming out of the weekend. So, make sure you check out our live programming for all sorts of high-level analysis. Our Black Friday Special is offering the best subscriber get-in price that I have seen in my time with the company. However, I’m also tackling some interesting market moves below. So, check out my take on the College Football Playoff field, along with how I view the national title picture. And keep reading to see how Week 13 in the NFL impacted some key markets.

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College Football Playoff – Odds To Make The Playoff

There’s still plenty of football left to be played, but as of right now DraftKings Sportsbook has the following teams listed in their market to make the College Football Playoff: 

  • Ole Miss – Yes (22-1) / No (-10000)
  • Miami – Yes (+800) / No (-1600)
  • Alabama – Yes (-160) / No (+125)
  • Army – Yes (+4000) / No (N/A)
  • South Carolina – Yes (+400) / No (-650)
  • SMU – Yes (-280) / No (+210) 

You can find all of these odds (listed in this exact order) here!

Last week, I noted that I’d play Alabama at +180 to make the 12-team field. Now, with the Tide having earned a win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, it looks like Kalen DeBoer’s team will be in. Of course, that’s not a certainty. The committee will have to weigh everything, and it’s not like there’s no case to be made for teams like South Carolina, Ole Miss and possibly even some of the non-champions in the Big 12. But the general consensus heading into Week 14 was that Alabama was 13th in the CFP rankings for a reason. The Tide would be in with any possible slip-up. Well, Miami slipped up. 

Looking at the odds also reveals something else: SMU probably can’t afford to lose to Clemson this weekend, which is another interesting wrinkle in the playoff picture. Plenty of coaches and analysts have argued that teams shouldn’t be punished for losing in their respective championship games. But a loss means Clemson gets the automatic ACC bid. Meaning it’d be two-loss SMU versus a team like Alabama. Uh oh.

College Football Playoff – Who Will Win The National Championship?

Now that the general field is out of the way, who the heck is going to win this thing? DraftKings Sportsbook has these 10 teams with the best chances right now: 

  • Oregon (+350)
  • Texas (+400)
  • Georgia (+475)
  • Ohio State (+475)
  • Notre Dame (+800)
  • Penn State (+900)
  • Tennessee (18-1)
  • Alabama (20-1) 
  • SMU (28-1) 
  • Indiana (40-1) 

You can find all of these odds (listed in this exact order) here!

While Oregon is the only undefeated team left in college football, it’s hard to say that backing the Ducks makes a lot of sense given their current odds. Oregon barely beat Ohio State in Eugene back on October 12th, and the Ducks have turned in some other duds throughout the season. A 16-13 win over Wisconsin in Madison was particularly alarming. That game could have gone either way, despite the fact that the Badgers are worse than they’ve been in 23 years. Oregon also barely held on to beat Boise State in a home game back on September 7th, and a close win over the Group of Five representative isn’t exactly indicative of a team that is going to run through a loaded field. 

How about Ohio State? While it might seem like the sky is falling after a fourth consecutive loss to Michigan, should The Game really matter all that much? Ryan Day is seemingly on the hot seat in Columbus, but he’s 65-6 against non-Wolverines in his time in Ohio State. And this year’s Buckeyes team is first in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.156) and third in EPA per play 0.124). Winning a national title is still very much in the cards, especially considering a rematch with Oregon would take place on a neutral field. The Buckeyes also have a couple of weeks to reset and get healthy before the action begins. 

It could also be a good idea to pepper the board with a couple of longer shots. Oddly enough, it doesn’t feel like there’s four elite teams in college football this year, let alone 12. So, is it really outrageous to think that Notre Dame can win? The early-season loss to Northern Illinois was embarrassing. There’s no denying that. But the Fighting Irish won 10 of their 11 games by double digits. They’re up to fourth in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.146), and their offense got better after a slow start to the year. 

There also isn’t any reason that Alabama can’t make some noise. Sure, the lows were insanely low, but this is also a team that beat Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri this season. How can you rule out the possibility of the Tide putting things together and finding a way? 

All in all, I’m not sure this year has presented the best argument for a 12-team playoff. It feels like too many teams. But it should be fun to see how it all unfolds. The beauty of college football lacking truly dominant teams is that we could see some chaos. And chaos is what casual football fans want after years of Kirby Smart and Nick Saban having a stranglehold on the sport. 

NFL Week 13 Market Moves

NFL MVP Odds

After having a total of three touchdowns in a blowout win over the 49ers, DraftKings Sportsbook has Bills star Josh Allen as the odds-on favorite to win MVP at -225. Saquon Barkley, currently a massive -500 favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, is second at +350. The last 11 NFL MVPs have been quarterbacks, with Adrian Peterson being the last position player to win (2012). So, it’s remarkable that Barkley is even part of the conversation. However, it’s going to be hard for him to beat out Hailee Steinfeld’s new husband. Buffalo went into the season with lower expectations than usual, but Allen has been pitch perfect despite having a lackluster group of pass-catchers around him. As long as he doesn’t stumble down the stretch, he’s likely going to win this thing for the first time in his career. 

Super Bowl LIX Odds

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the Lions being favored to win Super Bowl LIX for the first time all year. They passed a Chiefs team that has largely been favored to win it all for the better part of two years, and Detroit is still at the top of the DraftKings Sportsbook board at +290. However, after a road win over the Ravens, the Eagles (+475) are now second on the oddsboard. It’s hard to argue with it. Philadelphia is fifth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.104) and sixth in EPA per play allowed (-0.067). The Eagles also have a pretty reasonable path to 15 wins, so it isn’t outrageous to think that they’ll steal home-field advantage from the Lions. 

The third and fourth teams on the board are the Chiefs (+500) and Bills (+500). Buffalo is now Steve Makinen’s top-ranked team in the VSiN Power Ratings, but getting through the AFC gauntlet is going to be a nightmare for everybody. The Chiefs and Bills are both excellent, but the Ravens (12-1) are still as talented as anyone. And does anybody want to play the Steelers (22-1) or Chargers (35-1)? Both teams are superb defensively and play good “playoff football.” 

Coach of the Year Odds

This has been one of the most fascinating markets to monitor this season, and here are the top-five candidates at DraftKings Sportsbook heading into Week 14: 

  • Dan Campbell (+120)
  • Mike Tomlin (+400)
  • Kevin O’Connell (+400)
  • Sean Payton (+550) 
  • Jim Harbaugh (+550)

You can find all of these odds (listed in this exact order) here!

Campbell is in front because of the sheer dominance of the Lions this year, but Tomlin helped himself with a massive road win over the Bengals. However, as I mentioned last week, O’Connell, Payton and Harbaugh have great cases. Nobody would bat an eye at any of them taking home these honors. 

I’m still a little fascinated by Nick Sirianni sitting there at 75-1 at one prominent sportsbook. I grabbed it at 100-1 a couple of weeks ago, and perhaps I’m beating a dead horse. But the Eagles are facing the Panthers, Steelers, Cowboys and Giants at home over the next five weeks, and their one road game is against the Commanders. Philadelphia will likely be favored in all five of those games, making a 15-2 regular season extremely possible. 

I’m just not sure the case for Sirianni is all that different from the case for Campbell, so I still believe this is worth grabbing. I know Sirianni has some haters around the league, but this team has been a force all year. Sirianni deserves credit for hiring the right coordinators, as well as guiding the team to some impressive victories throughout the year. 

NFL Division Battles

There are still three divisions that are very much up for grabs, as there’s no runaway winner in the AFC North, NFC West or NFC South. I’ll leave out the NFC North because Detroit’s next meeting with Minnesota will be played at Ford Field, but that one isn’t over yet — which is crazy considering how good the Lions have been all year. 

In the AFC North, the Steelers are -180 at DraftKings Sportsbook at 9-3 and the Ravens are +125 at 8-5. Pittsburgh will also get Cleveland at Acrisure Stadium next week, making it very likely the team moves to 10-3. The Browns beat the Steelers in Cleveland two weeks ago. Tomlin isn’t going to let that happen again. However, Pittsburgh then goes on the road against Philadelphia in Week 15, and the team faces Baltimore at M&T Bank Stadium after that. So, Lamar Jackson and Co. are very much alive. 

In the NFC West, DraftKings has the Seahawks at +170, the Cardinals at +170 and the Rams at +280. This week’s meeting between Seattle and Arizona has the potential to change things drastically, and the Cardinals will be the home team in that one. So, they’ll be looking for revenge for a loss in Seattle a couple of weeks ago, but a Seahawks win might essentially wrap it up. And the Rams are just quietly lurking in the shadows in case either team falters the rest of the way.  

Then there’s the NFC South, where we have been watching a two-team race between the Buccaneers (-115) and Falcons (-115) for most of the season. Atlanta holds the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay because the Falcons are 2-0 in two meetings with the Bucs this year. But it’s going to be a struggle for them to match Tampa’s record by the end of the year. While these teams are both 6-6 right now, the Falcons are playing some miserable football and the Bucs have a slightly easier rest-of-season strength of schedule.  

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