Wes Reynolds: NFL Week 13 Best Bets
Here are my NFL Week 13 best bets:
Washington +6 vs. Denver
Both teams are off bye weeks and seemingly going in opposite directions. Denver has now established itself as the team to beat in the AFC West and could potentially be competing for the 1 seed in the AFC. Meanwhile, Washington has been hugely disappointing after reaching the NFC Championship Game. The Commanders have lost six straight games and are 3-8 both SU and ATS, tied for the worst spread mark (Saints) in the NFL and are on an 0-6 slide both SU and ATS.
While QB Jayden Daniels returned to practice this week, he has been ruled out for Sunday Night Football. Marcus Mariota will once again get the start. Mariota spent his bye week getting inducted, along with his former center Hroniss Grasu, into the Oregon Athletics Hall of Fame and saw his Ducks triumph over old rival USC. Perhaps it was good for him to go home, where he had so much success, and get away from the Commanders’ struggles. So, the trip back home could give him a more positive mindset heading into this week. It also helps to get WR Terry McLaurin back this week from his quad injury.
Denver is 9-2, yet the Broncos have trailed at one point in all 11 games this season. The Commanders have lost their last six while the Broncos have won their last eight. But consider some of these recent Denver results:
Week 11: Win by 3 as -8.5 vs. Raiders; 10-7
Week 8: Win by 1 as -8.5 vs. Giants 33-32 (came back from down 26-8 with 10 minutes left in the 4th)
Week 7: Win by 2 as -7 vs. Jets 13-11
There were two blowouts in this eight-game win streak (Week 4: vs. Cincinnati with Jake Browning starting at QB, 28-3; Week 8: vs. Dallas, 44-24), but all the other games were decided by 4, 2, 1, 3, 3, and 3 points respectively.
The Broncos are getting a large amount of respect here for a team that has been very fortunate in close games, kind of like the Commanders were last year. This team now has to wear the target on its back, now being the AFC West favorite and having one of the best records in the league. The bye week may actually work against them here because a team does not want to have a break when it is on a winning streak. Denver is an overpriced favorite here.
New York Giants +7.5 at New England
The line has ticked down to 7 at many shops with Jaxson Dart having cleared concussion protocol, but that was likely priced into the number already. However, this line could look fishy at first glance, considering New England, the AFC’s current top seed, was laying 12.5 to the Jets, who have the same number of wins (2) as the Giants at the present time.
Dart’s return certainly plays a factor in the lower-than-expected number. However, it also must be considered that the Giants have been more competitive of late, having lost by just 7 to both the Packers and Lions over the last two weeks.
On the other side, the Patriots are being priced to the moon with a 10-2 record. They failed to cover last week and had to survive at Cincinnati, who had lost seven of its last eight. The Bengals, who rank 29th in the league in pressure rate, got pressure on nearly 44 percent of Drake Maye’s dropbacks. Injuries have hurt the Patriots’ left side of the OL, with LT Will Campbell sustaining an MCL injury (OUT) and third-round LG Jared Wilson suffering a high-ankle sprain (questionable).
The old saying goes that you can only play who is in front of you, but the Patriots have played the NFL’s easiest schedule this season, and that certainly has assisted the current 10-2 mark.
Even on a six-game losing streak, the G-Men have covered their last three games and four of their last six and should have likely won three of those last six games outright. Yes, they fired Brian Daboll three weeks ago, but this group is still giving good effort in a bad season.
TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Houston Texans/Indianapolis Colts Under 44.5
TEASER OF THE WEEK
New York Jets +8.5/Houston Texans +9.5
BEST OF THE REST
Tennessee Titans +6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
New Orleans Saints +5.5 at Miami Dolphins
For more NFL Week 13 best bets, visit the NFL Week 13 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.
