What potential Super Bowl teams scare sportsbooks this season?

With three Super Bowl wins in six years as a starter, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has earned respect across the board. Still, respect is one thing and fear is another, and bookmakers are not afraid to take futures bets on Mahomes.

In fact, bookmakers are welcoming almost all bets on Kansas City to win another championship as it chases the first three-peat in the Super Bowl era. As expected, the wagers on the Chiefs are showing up in big numbers.

 

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Circa Sports oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich said his book sees “heavy action” on the Chiefs, the +500 favorites, and the 49ers, the second choice at +550. San Francisco was last season’s bridesmaid to Mahomes.

“It’s always good when they pound the favorites,” Bogdanovich said. “As a bookmaker, when they take a low price for a lot of money, that gives you flexibility in the futures pool.”

Echoing that sentiment is DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello, who said the fear factor with the Chiefs is relatively low.

“With short favorites like that, our liability is not that high,” Avello said. “When you have a quarterback like Mahomes, I would never count them out, but I wouldn’t bet the Chiefs at +550 because you could probably get that price at any point during the season.”

Kansas City is the +550 favorite at DraftKings, followed by San Francisco (+600) and Baltimore (+950). Buffalo and Detroit are each offered at 12-1 odds to round out the top five on the futures board.

The bookmakers do fear heavy action on long-shot teams with a legitimate chance to win it all, and the New York Jets fall into that category as a 20-1 shot at DraftKings. Aaron Rodgers’ debut with the Jets was an abbreviated debacle that ended with an Achilles injury in the first quarter of the season opener. Rodgers is back, and so are the bettors.

“We’re always going to take money on the Jets because of Aaron Rodgers and Jets fans,” Avello said. “I really don’t know what he’s got left, but Rodgers doesn’t need a remarkable season. If the Jets can get a better-than-average effort from Rodgers, they are capable of going to the playoffs and having a good season.”

Red Rock sportsbook director Chuck Esposito, who oversees several Las Vegas books that write a high volume of public action, said the Chiefs and 49ers also lead the ticket count for Super Bowl futures. He’s not going to spend the summer sweating about it. Instead, Esposito listed the Jets and three other teams that have his attention — the Chargers, Packers and Steelers.

The Chargers finished 5-12 and last in the AFC West a season ago, but that fiasco is forgotten now that Jim Harbaugh has been hired as the new coach. Harbaugh has a remarkable track record — coaching the 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance and three NFC Championship games from 2011 to 2013 before guiding Michigan to a 15-0 finish and the national title in January — and a reputation for being a turnaround artist.

“It’s the Harbaugh factor,” said Esposito, who’s currently dealing 40-1 Super Bowl odds on the Chargers after opening at 50-1. “But the Chargers are still playing in the same division with Mahomes.”

Harbaugh’s arrival in Los Angeles will be made easier by the presence of Justin Herbert, who’s an elite quarterback still on the rise.

Jordan Love has not reached elite status yet for Green Bay (20-1 odds), but he did lead the Packers to a 9-8 season and a playoff win at Dallas.

“There is a lot of money and a high ticket count on the Packers,” Esposito said. “I think Love is really good. I’m not ready to say he’s a top-five quarterback in the league. The last eight games of the season, he played great. With Love and the young receivers, the Packers could win the division. In the Packers’ case, you can see them taking the next step.”

Esposito said the annual consistency of the Steelers, who opened at 55-1 odds and have been adjusted to 32-1, is likely attracting bettors. The quarterback competition between veteran Russell Wilson, a Broncos castoff, and young gun Justin Fields, a Bears castoff, is a question mark. Pittsburgh has intriguing potential, if the quarterback situation turns into a positive.

Last summer, the Lions and Bengals were hot teams in the Super Bowl futures market. Jared Goff guided Detroit to 12 wins and the NFC North title, nearly delivering a Super Bowl before coming up one step short with an excruciating second-half collapse in the conference title game at San Francisco. Injuries to quarterback Joe Burrow sidelined the hopes for Cincinnati, which finished 9-8 and bottomed out in the AFC North.

Be aware of teams that were once popular with the public and now fly under the radar — and the Bills, Lions and Bengals (14-1) are a few of those teams. “The Lions are not getting as much love as they did last year,” Esposito said.

The Texans developed into last season’s biggest surprise team in the NFL. Picked to finish last in the AFC South, Houston won 10 games and finished first. The script has been flipped for the Texans, who are getting 16-1 odds at DraftKings.

Avello said the Texans, Eagles and Cowboys are drawing strong Super Bowl betting support.

The 2022 season ended with Philadelphia falling to Kansas City in a thrilling Super Bowl. The thrill was gone last season when quarterback Jalen Hurts slumped, and the Eagles were blown out in the wild-card round of the playoffs.

Philadelphia and Dallas, each listed at 17-1 odds, should be contenders, although the Cowboys have been burning the betting public for almost three decades. The Rams, who were Super Bowl winners prior to the Chiefs’ back-to-back titles, could be a sleeper play at 30-1. It appears Los Angeles is again a threat to San Francisco atop the NFC West.

In 58 years of Super Bowls, no team has won three in a row, so the Chiefs seem fully focused on chasing history. “It looks like Mahomes has more weapons than ever,” Bogdanovich said.

While a focused favorite can be a great bet, bookmakers are not shaking in fear. Esposito is skeptical of Kansas City closing the deal, citing regular-season complacency, injuries and stiff competitions as possible pitfalls for Mahomes and the Chiefs.

“I know Mahomes wants to be like Tom Brady and win more Super Bowls,” Esposito said. “But the AFC is loaded. After you win it a couple of times, all you care about is the postseason, and you don’t care as much about winning 12 or 13 games and having the best record in the regular season. It’s just so hard to three-peat in that league.”

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