Wild Card Weekend NFL Betting Splits Systems Update:
The DK Betting Splits have taken off this season in their popularity. They have always been one of the most touted links on the VSiN.com website and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors.
If you’re not familiar, these are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals. In preseason articles published in the 2024 Football Betting Guides, I outlined different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2022 season for both college and pro football.
Records are accurate heading into the 2025 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 117-148 ATS (44.2%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 118-150 ATS (44%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups are actually 100-87 ATS (53.5%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or fewer each year when this group will actually back the home dog. Watch this one closely, as backing road favorites in the NFL consistently has never been a consistent winning strategy.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): HOUSTON
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle & number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 100-114 ATS (46.7%) & 101-111 ATS (47.6%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests. These numbers were improved along with the overall majority figures last year, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ENGLAND, HOUSTON
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority number of bets has backed the team with less season wins in a 2023 or 2024 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 46-38 ATS (54.8%). This has proven to be a situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CAROLINA, BUFFALO
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Last year, it ballooned back up to 44.6. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)!
System Match (PLAY): OVER – BUF-JAX
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in ’23 & ‘24 with a record of 46-69 (42.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 30-37 (44.8%) record, still poor though.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): LAR-CAR
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 70-92 (43.2%) over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over.
System Match (PLAY UNDER INSTEAD): LAR-CAR
For more NFL Wild Card Weekend best bets, visit the NFL Wild Card Weekend betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
