4 Nations Face-Off Hockey Tournament Preview and Best Bets:
The NHL is on pause for the next 12 days as the 4 Nations Face-Off begins Wednesday in Montreal (Canada vs Sweden). NHL players representing Canada, USA, Sweden, and Finland will play a round-robin tournament. The first four games of the tournament will be played at the Bell Centre in Montreal. They will shift to Boston’s TD Garden Arena for a pair of games on President’s Day that will determine the two finalists.
Each team will play three total round-robin games under the following points system: three points for a win in regulation; two points for a win in overtime/shootout; one point for a loss in overtime/shootout; and zero points for a loss in regulation.
The two teams with the best round-robin record will advance to a one-game final, which will feature the overtime format of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The most anticipated game of the round-robin will be Saturday night (8 p.m. ET), with Canada going up against USA (8 p.m. ET, ABC, Sportsnet)
As always, shop around for the best odds. Here are my team-by-team breakdowns, along with team best bets.
Canada (+160)
The wish of many hockey fans will finally come true, even if it’s only for four games. Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia natives Sidney Crosby and Nathan MacKinnon will be joined by Mark Stone of the Golden Knights, forming Canada’s top line. For Canadians, this is the greatest trio since Lemieux, Gretzky and Hawerchuk in the 1986 Canada Cup.
How stacked is Canada up front? Connor McDavid is centering the second line with Mitch Marner (Maple Leafs) and Sam Reinhart of the Florida Panthers. In MacKinnon, Marner and McDavid, Canada boasts three of the top five players in the NHL scoring race.
From where I sit, Canada has the best group of defensemen. The top pair features Colorado teammates Cale Makar and Devon Toews. LA’s Drew Doughty, who was added to the team on Saturday, anchors the second pairing alongside Shea Theodore (Vegas) and Josh Morrissey (Winnipeg) and Colton Parayko round out the six blueliners.
The biggest question facing Canada is between the pipes. The trio of Adin Hill (Vegas), Jordan Binnington (St. Louis) and Samuel Montembeault (Montreal) are arguably the weakest among the four countries. Canada’s head coach, John Cooper, said on Monday that his plan is to ride one goalie. He will announce his starter later Tuesday. Canada’s roster features a combined 20 Stanley Cups, most in the tournament.
4 Nations Best Bets (team leaders)
Most Goals: Nathan MacKinnon +550, Mark Stone +1400
Most Points: Cale Makar +900, Mitch Marner +1400
USA (+160)
For someone like me, a dual citizen (Canada, USA), I think I have an excellent chance that one of my teams is going to win this tournament. Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, Matthew and Brady Tkachuk (and I still haven’t mentioned Kyle Connor, who has scored more goals (30) this season than any other USA-born player on the team), and Team USA is not short of offensively skilled players.
Where there might be a drop-off slightly is on the blueline. The loss of Quinn Hughes (Vancouver), who missed the Canucks last four games due to injury, made the decision not to make himself available for the tournament and make sure he is ready for the Canucks run to make the playoffs. Hughes will be replaced by Jake Sanderson (Ottawa). Keep an eye on defenseman Brock Faber (Minnesota), who averages the fourth most minutes among defensemen who are playing in the tournament. I would not be surprised if his role got elevated during the tournament.
On paper, Team USA has the best goaltending. The Jets Connor Hellebuyck is putting up MVP numbers. In addition to his league-leading 34 wins, his six shutouts are just one fewer than his total regulation losses (seven) this season. The issue for Hellebuyck is his performance when the games matter most. In his past two postseasons, he has a sub-.900 save percentage. The Stars’ Jake Oettinger and the Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman are the backups.
4 Nations Best Bets (team leaders):
Most Goals: Kyle Connor +900, Jake Guentzel +1000
Most Points: Jack Eichel +800, Zach Werenski +2500
Sweden (+420)
Team Sweden’s strength is their scoring wingers and solid blueline. William Nylander (Toronto), Adrian Kempe (LA Kings), and Filip Forsberg (Nashville) provide Sweden with three players who all have 40-goal seasons on their resume. Victor Hedman (Tampa), Mattias Ekholm (Edmonton) and Rasmus Andersson (Calgary) each anchor one of the three pairs on the blueline to go along with Jonas Brodin (Minnesota), Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh) and Rasmus Dahlin (Buffalo). All three pairs have a player that can provide scoring and play solid defense.
Where Sweden falls short is down the middle. New York Rangers Mika Zibanejad centers the third line with the Rangers but will be Sweden’s number one center. After Zibanejad, Elias Pettersson (Vancouver), Joel Eriksson-Ek (Minnesota) and Elias Lindholm round out the quartet. Pettersson has an opportunity to make an impact, having two prolific goal scorers on his side in Kempe and Forsberg.
With Jacob Markstrom (New Jersey) unavailable due to injury, Filip Gustavsson (Minnesota), Linus Ullmark (Ottawa) and Samuel Ersson are the trio of goalies on the Sweden roster. Gustavsson and Ullmark have similar numbers this season. The decision may just come down to the fact that Ullmark, who returned to the Senators lineup after missing five weeks due to injury, gave up seven goals in his two starts following prior to the break. Unless Gustavsson and Ullmark both go down with injury,, Ersson is just around for the experience.
4 Nations Best Bets (team leaders):
Most Goals: William Nylander +550, Adrian Kempe +800
Most Points: William Nylander +500, Jesper Bratt +800
Note: Due to injuries, Team Finland could not hold a full practice. I will have their best bets available prior to their opening game on Thursday.
