NHL Best Bets

There wasn’t much of a sweat for last night’s NHL best bet in the Eastern Conference Final, but tonight, we shift gears to the West, where the Edmonton Oilers are taking on the Dallas Stars. 

Something interesting to look at while the Dallas Stars are the favorite in tonight’s Game One, dating back to the 2022 postseason, they are 0-6 in Game One of their playoff series. All six of those games have been decided by one goal. An incredibly unique trend I’d say.

 

The Oilers are coming off of a big but nerve-wracking Game Seven win on the road against the Vancouver Canucks, and they should be able to bring the momentum from that game into the start of this series against a Stars team that has had about five days of rest. 

Let’s get into it.

Edmonton at Dallas (-130, 6)

It seems like there aren’t many people giving the Edmonton Oilers a chance in this series. The Dallas Stars are scary, that is a fact that cannot be denied, but if Edmonton can get the goaltending that they got from Stuart Skinner in Games Six and Seven, this is going to be quite the thrilling Western Conference Final. 

When it comes to special teams, the Oilers have a clear-cut advantage. Edmonton comes into this series with the NHL’s number one power play and penalty kill. The Oilers’ man-advantage is firing at 37.5% and their penalty kill is at 91.4%. This isn’t a knock on Dallas; the Stars have strong special teams as well, as their power play is at 29%, but the kill has been a struggle at just 69.2%. Granted, they have gone up against some very strong teams that have a ton of weapons on their power play like the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche. This is just going to be another one of those challenges that they’re going to have to overcome. 

Special teams aside, Dallas is so strong defensively and they have the edge in goaltending in this series. Jake Oettinger has had a strong postseason, skating to a .918 save percentage and a 2.09 goals against average, but he is beatable. That said, in the two Game Ones he has played in the postseason, he has not been very good. In those two games, Oettinger is 0-2 with a .908 save percentage and a 3.73 goals against average. For whatever reason, it seems pretty clear that it takes him a little bit to settle into a series. 

The Oilers are coming off two straight wins, big wins to keep their season alive and tonight I think they can keep that rolling. 

I like Edmonton to pull off a surprise win on the road tonight in Dallas.

NHL Best Bet(s): Edmonton Oilers ML +110 (play to -110) | Leon Draisaitl over 2.5 shots on goal -150 (play to -165)

May Record: 28-20 (+7.12 units)

2023-24 record: 181–171 (-21.57 units)

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