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It was another winning night last night, as we went 2-1 on the evening, making our record 5-2 in our last two nights. Now, it’s heat check time. There are 12 games on the board tonight across the NHL, so I think this is the perfect opportunity to cook up my first parlay of the season.
This parlay will consist of four different plays, mostly moneyline bets but also two different 60-minute lines.
The New York Rangers are at home versus the Predators, while the Buffalo Sabres look to build momentum at home after their first win of the season. The Oilers head into Philadelphia to see if the Flyers’ early start is a fluke. Seattle continues to struggle in the early going, and they have a tough Carolina Hurricanes team in town to make things worse. Connor Bedard continues his league-wide tour with a stop in Colorado to take on MacKinnon and Makar.
Let’s chef this baby up.
Nashville Predators at New York Rangers (-198, 6)
The Nashville Predators have not lost back-to-back games and are 1-3-0 to start the season. The expectations weren’t high for this group, as they are entering a culture shift, but they are still doing their best to be competitive every night. Their last game was a tough 6-1 loss on home ice to Edmonton. They head into the world’s most famous arena tonight, looking for a feel-good bounce-back win.
The New York Rangers have had a solid start, going 2-1-0, but their last two games haven’t been pretty. This matchup against the Predators is a great opportunity for them to build confidence before hitting the road for five games. For the Rangers, the two things everyone knew would be a success have been—Igor Shesterkin, and their power play.
Shesterkin has started in all three games, skating to a .904 save percentage and a 2.38 goals against average. Nashville’s offense has struggled early on, only averaging 2.25 goals per game, so going up against Shesterkin, who’s starting to heat up, isn’t something they’re looking forward to.
The Rangers’ power play currently sits at seventh in the NHL. They’ve converted at a 30% rate (3/10) in their first three games. The Predators penalty kill has been insanely weak thus far, as they have the second-worst percentage in the entire NHL, only succeeding at a 60% rate. The Predators’ power play hasn’t helped them much either. Their man-advantage is at a horrendous 11.1% success rate.
New York should dominate the special teams tonight, but we will see a solid goaltending battle with Shesterkin against Juuse Saros, even though Saros’ numbers haven’t been up to par.
This should be an easy win for the Rangers.
Bet: New York Rangers ML -198 (Play to -210 | 1st leg of the parlay)
Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres (-110, 6.5)
It took the Buffalo Sabres a few games to settle in, but it appears they’ve finally started to find their game. The group is still waiting for its star, Tage Thompson, to find the score sheet for the first time this season. Thompson put up 47 goals last year and hasn’t been able to find the back of the net through the first three games, but it has to come at some point.
The Sabres’ offense has struggled a bit early, but this group is on the verge of exploding. Tonight seems like the perfect night for them to find it, as they take on a weaker Calgary Flames group. The Flames enter Buffalo losing two straight games, and it is their first night of a back-to-back.
Jacob Markstrom isn’t off to a scorching start in goal for the Flames. He is 1-1-1 with a .898 save percentage and a 2.96 goals against average. Devon Levi is still finding his groove at the NHL level, but he should feel confident after earning his team a 3-2 victory in their last outing.
This game is all about the Sabres’ top line finally breaking out. Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch and Thompson are due for a big game, and considering that Calgary isn’t such a strong opponent, I think tonight is their night.
Bet: Buffalo Sabres ML -110 (play to -130 | 2nd leg of the parlay)
Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers (+180, 7)
The Philadelphia Flyers have won two out of their first three games, but tonight will be the most formidable opponent they have faced by a large margin.
The Edmonton Oilers finally found their offense after struggling in their first two games of the season, but they erupted in Nashville on Tuesday night. Leon Draisaitl tallied four points (two goals, two assists), while Connor McDavid added a goal and assist on the evening.
The Oilers’ power play is the team’s biggest threat, scoring at a 35.7% pace, ranking third in the NHL. They face a Flyers penalty kill that is at a 75% success rate, 23rd in the league.
Philadelphia’s blue line isn’t strong enough to stop this explosive Edmonton group of forwards. The Oilers’ goaltending has been a massive concern in the early going, but it shouldn’t be an issue against a weaker offensive team in the Flyers. Philadelphia averages 2.67 goals per game, which is completely underperforming its 3.26 expected goals per 60 minutes.
Look for Draisaitl and McDavid to stay hot as they take advantage of this subpar Flyers group of defensemen.
Bet: Edmonton Oilers to win in regulation -130 (play to -150 | 3rd leg of the parlay)
Carolina Hurricanes at Seattle Kraken (+124, 6)
There’s no way of dancing around this. The Seattle Kraken cannot score goals. In their first four games, they’ve only scored three goals. There is a massive problem in Seattle. To make matters worse, they’re facing the Carolina Hurricanes, one of the best defensive teams in the NHL for the past few seasons.
Carolina has won three of its first four games, showing why they should be considered one of the league’s most elite Stanley Cup contenders. Even though they’ve been known for their defensive efforts over the years, the Canes are currently the second-best offensive team in the NHL, scoring 4.75 goals per game and skating to a 26.1% rate on their power play.
The Kraken are literally the worst offensive team in the NHL, averaging 0.75 goals per game, which is absolutely bonkers that they can’t even average a single goal per game. Their defense hasn’t been much better, as the team is allowing 3.00 goals against per game. The only positive for Seattle thus far has been their penalty kill, which is at a perfect 100%.
The bottom line is the Hurricanes are far and away the much better team here. The goaltenders don’t matter because Carolina should carry the play for 60 minutes.
I’m expecting Seattle’s struggles to continue, as this group has no confidence in the room right now.
Bet: Carolina Hurricanes ML -148 (play to -165 | 4th leg of the parlay)
Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche (-345, 6.5)
The Connor Bedard world tour has finally reached its final stop. The Blackhawks have played their first four games of the season on the road thus far, with this trip to Colorado being their fifth in a row before they head home for their opener at the United Center. Tonight will be their biggest challenge as they take on Colorado, who have also played their first few games on the road, so the Avalanche are eager to be back in front of their home crowd.
Colorado had a disappointing finish to last season as they lost in a Game 7 on home ice to the Seattle Kraken, so you know they want to put on a good show for their fans. They’ve looked strong thus far in their first three contests, going 3-0-0 and outscoring their opponents by a combined score of 10-4. This is one of the most dynamic offenses in the entire league, but what impressed me the most in the early going was their goaltender, Alexandar Georgiev.
Georgiev is 3-0-0 with a .958 save percentage and a 1.30 goals against average with a +5.4 goals saved above expected. Chicago’s goaltending hasn’t been all that bad either, as Arvid Soderblom is currently leading the NHL, boasting a +6.6 goals saved above expected. Soderblom is coming off of an impressive performance on the road in Toronto, but considering that this is Colorado’s home opener, the energy in Ball Arena will be absolutely wild.
The Avalanche are led by Mikko Rantanen (three goals, two assists), Nathan MacKinnon (one goal, two assists) and Cale Makar (two goals, two assists), who are all off to pretty strong starts this season. I’m not sure if the Blackhawks will be able to contain them. Chicago is giving up the third most shots on goal against per game, allowing 36.5 against per contest, as the Avalanche are averaging the most shots on goal per game, generating 39 each night.
The only chance Chicago has in this game is if Soderblom completely stands on his head, which I don’t see him doing in back-to-back games. I think the Avalanche dominate from start to finish tonight.
Bet: Colorado Avalanche to win in regulation -230 (play to -260 | last leg of the parlay)
Parlay odds: +1122 for 1 unit.
2023-24 record: 14-13-0 (-1.78 units)
