NHL Best Bets

I hope everyone enjoyed their Super Bowl Sunday!  For those following the Lazzy Lay, it’s been a successful past two days. The record might not show it, but last night, we hit a two-leg parlay at +255 without having to sweat a drop – a bettor’s dream. The NHL is back in full swing tonight with 11 games and some intriguing storylines. The St. Louis Blues have won seven out of their last eight games, and the Colorado Avalanche are looking for their first win post-All-Star break. Looks like a good game for an NHL best bet.

St. Louis at Toronto (-205, +170)

The Toronto Maple Leafs are incredibly overvalued tonight against the St. Louis Blues. They have no business being -205. The Leafs have lost two out of their last three contests, while the Blues have been heating up lately. 

 

St. Louis has only played in two games since the break, but they have looked incredibly dominant in those contests. In those games, they have averaged 5.00 goals per game and have only allowed 1.50 goals against while their special teams are even more impressive. Their man-advantage unit is clicking at 57.1%, as they have converted on four of six attempts, and their penalty kill is at a perfect 100%, going six for six. 

The Blues goaltending over their last 10 games has been impressive. They haven’t announced their starter for tonight at the time of writing this, but Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have both had a strong recent stretch. In his last six starts, Binnington is 4-2-0 with a 2.17 goals against average and a .923 save percentage. In Hofer’s last four starts, he is 3-1-0 with a 2.47 goals against average and a .929 save percentage. 

Everything has been clicking for the Blues, while the Leafs have had some distractions. Toronto will be without their number one defenseman, Morgan Rielly, who has an in-person hearing today to learn how many games he will be suspended for his cross-check to the face on Ridly Greig. 

Rielly’s absence will certainly be felt on the Leafs’ blue line. 

There is incredible value on the Blues tonight. I like them to go into Toronto and take two points. 

NHL Best Bet: St. Louis Blues ML +170 (play to +140)

Colorado at Washington (+142, 6)

The Colorado Avalanche are on a very surprising and rare four-game skid. Tonight is a great opportunity for them to get going in a positive direction as they’re taking on a Washington Capitals team that they’re much better than. 

Even though the Avalanche haven’t been at their best since the break, the Capitals have played mediocre hockey all season. 

I don’t think that the Capitals offense will be able to get much going against this Colorado team that is much faster. The Caps have the 30th-ranked offense in the NHL, only averaging 2.37 goals per game, while also skating to the league’s sixth-worst expected goals-for percentage, 46.14% at even strength. 

Not only does this Capitals team struggle at 5-on-5, but their power play hasn’t been at its best. They have the fifth-worst power-play conversion in the NHL, only clicking at 14.8% on the season. 

Charlie Lindgren will most likely get the nod in goal for the Caps, and his recent stretch of games has not been his best. Lindgren is 2-3-1 in his last six starts with a 3.62 goals against average and a .866 save percentage. 

The Avalanche’s offense should be too much to handle for the Capitals. These two teams have played one another once this season, and the Avalanche got the best of the Capitals 6-2 in Colorado on January 24th. 

At 5-on-5, the Avalanche are generating the fifth-most high-danger chances per 60 minutes (12.11), and I expect tonight’s outcome to be somewhat similar to the first meeting between the two. 

NHL Best Bet: Colorado Avalanche to win in regulation -120 (play to -135)

February Record: 4-5 (-1.88 units)

2023-24 record: 84–98 (-36.66 units)

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