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Well, folks, it’s finally here. This is a day that hockey fans, especially me, have waited for a long time. Today is the first-ever “Frozen Frenzy” which features all 32 teams in action and the chance to watch one channel that shows you every hit, goal, and highlight from the games across the board. This is the NHL’s version of an “NFL RedZone,” and tonight is its debut on ESPN+ and ESPN2.
As I said, all 32 teams are in action, so there are 16 games throughout the evening, so let’s not waste any time. Let’s get into the games I’ll pay extra attention to.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals (+142, 6.5)
The Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs kick off the Frozen Frenzy with a 6 p.m. puck drop. The Capitals have had a very ugly start to the 2023-24 campaign. They are currently sitting in last in the entire Eastern Conference as they are 1-2-1 in their first four games of the year. One of their biggest issues in the early going is their blue line. The Capitals are allowing 33 shots against per game. Tonight, they will face the team that generates the most shots on goal each night, the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Toronto has a ton of offensive weapons, but Mitch Marner is certainly one that stands out amongst this strong forward group. Marner currently had one goal and three assists in five games this season, but with how he has played, those numbers should be higher. He was held pointless in the team’s most recent game on Saturday against the Tampa Bay Lightning, but Marner put up seven shots on goal in that contest. In his last three games, Marner has posted 14 shots, so he is hungrier to find the net.
Since the Capitals aren’t very sound in their own end, I imagine that Marner, Auston Matthews and Calle Jarnkrok, along with the rest of the Leafs will have no problems generating scoring chances.
I like that Marner is coming off of a strong game in which he did not score. It makes me think he’ll be even hungrier to find the back of the net tonight.
Bet: Mitch Marner Over 2.5 Shots On Goal -110 (Play to -130)
Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators (-155, 7)
The Buffalo Sabres are one of the two teams in the Frozen Frenzy playing the second half of a back-to-back. The Sabres had a tough loss last night on home ice to Montreal. This was a game that Buffalo probably should have won after outshooting Montreal, but most of those shots didn’t find their way into the net, and the Sabres lost 3-1.
The Ottawa Senators have had a few rest days after losing their most recent game on home ice to the Detroit Red Wings. Similar to Buffalo’s game last night, I thought the Senators were the better team, but they didn’t get the result they wanted.
Ottawa has been one of the best offensive teams in the league here early on. They are the fourth highest-scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 4.20 goals per game, and they are skating to a 22.7% success rate on the man-advantage. The Sabres, however, after having an incredible offensive season in 2022-23, have looked like a completely different team out of the gate. Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch only have one point each in the team’s first six games, and Buffalo’s power play has a horrendous 9.5% conversion rate. Buffalo is only generating 9.62 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, the fourth worst in the league. The Sabres offense hasn’t woken up yet.
Ottawa’s best players have been doing their job, as Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson, Tim Stutzle, and Vladimir Tarasenko each have six points in the team’s first five games.
Given that Buffalo played last night and had to travel, I expect them to be a little sluggish compared to the offensive firepower of Ottawa. I like the Senators to take care of this battle in 60 minutes.
Bet: Ottawa Senators to win in regulation +100 (play to -120)
Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders (+120, 6)
The Colorado Avalanche are looking to keep their undefeated record as they head to Long Island to take on the New York Islanders. The Islanders have lost two straight games, but the odds are not in their favor as they look to end that streak. A ton of talented players will take the ice, but this one is all about the goaltending.
Ilya Sorokin is off to a strong start, as was expected, but he is 2-0-1 on the year with a .914 save percentage and a 2.31 goals-against average, including a +0.3 goals saved above expected. Believe it or not, Alexandar Georgiev has been the better goalie of the two, as he is skating to a record of 5-0-0 with a .943 save percentage and a 1.58 goals-against average. He also has the league’s best goals saved above expected with a +9.4 rating.
The Avalanche and Islanders are top 10 defensive teams in the league right now, but the Islanders have struggled way more offensively.
With both goalies looking strong, the Under in the first period thus far for the Islanders has hit in 50% of their games. It has hit in 60% of the Avalanche’s games. This feels like a good opportunity to lean toward the Under in the opening frame, knowing that Sorokin will have to bring out his best performance to try and beat the Avalanche on home ice. I’m not as concerned about Georgiev because the Islanders have a hard time scoring as is.
I expect a low-scoring affair between these two tonight.
Bet: Under 1.5 in the First Period +100 (play to -115)
Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings (-142, 6.5)
The Detroit Red Wings have been arguably the biggest surprise of the young NHL season. Entering tonight, Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin are leading the NHL in scoring. DeBrincat has eight goals and four assists in just six games, while Larkin has three goals and eight assists in six games. These two have looked unstoppable.
Conversely, the Seattle Kraken has been a massive disappointment as they’re struggling mightily to get their offense going. Seattle is the third-worst offensive team in the league, scoring 1.83 goals per game and only converting at 16.7% on the power play. The Red Wings are scoring at will, averaging a league-best 5.00 goals per game while skating to the second-best power play at 39.1%.
Philipp Grubauer is the likely starter in goal for the Kraken. He has yet to win a game, skating to a 0-4-0 record with a .896 save percentage and a 3.04 goals-against average.
As a team, the Kraken are 1-4-1 and haven’t won a game on the road yet. The Red Wings are 3-0-0 on home ice and have won their last five games overall.
This story is simple. The Red Wings are one of the hottest teams in the NHL, and the Kraken are one of, if not the coldest. This game should be all Detroit.
Bet: Detroit Red Wings to win in regulation +115 (play to -105)
New York Rangers at Calgary Flames (+105, 6)
The New York Rangers and Calgary Flames had some heated battles in the 2022-23 season; both games needed extra time to decide a winner. Tonight, they will meet for the first time this season, and for the Flames, they’re finally returning home after a long five-game road trip.
Calgary’s road trip was not pretty, as they skated to a 1-3-1 record, but they’re coming into this matchup with the Rangers on a two-game losing streak. In those two games, the Flames only scored three goals, which should give the Rangers confidence.
The Rangers are currently the sixth-best defensive team in the NHL, only allowing 2.40 goals against per game while also allowing the fewest shots against per contest (23.8). Igor Shesterkin should be getting the start in this one, and he is the perfect bounce-back candidate after he was yanked in his last start at home against the Nashville Predators. In that game, Shesterkin allowed four goals on just 18 shots faced, so I’d have to imagine that he is fired up to get back into the blue paint.
The Calgary Flames haven’t been as strong in their own end as the Rangers. They’re allowing 3.67 goals against per game, but a strong area of theirs has been their penalty kill. The Flames are tied for the second-best penalty kill in the league, skating to a 95.5% success rate, so they should be able to test the Rangers’ first unit that has been very successful. With that said, Jacob Markstrom is the likely starter in goal for the Flames. He is 1-2-1 to start the year with a .905 save percentage and a 2.75 goals against average. Even though Shesterkin’s numbers aren’t as good, the Rangers have looked much better collectively in their own end.
New York had a complete 60-minute effort in their most recent game at Seattle, defeating the Kraken by the score of 4-1, and I think that will give them an extra boost going into tonight’s game with the Flames. The Rangers are 0-4 in their last four trips to Calgary, so they’re due for a win in the Saddledome.
Bet: New York Rangers ML -125 (play to -140)
Arizona Coyotes at Los Angeles Kings (-205, 6.5)
The Arizona Coyotes have been a nice little surprise in their first five games of the NHL season. In fact, there hasn’t been a more profitable team than the ‘Yotes in regards to the first period Under bet. The first-period Under has hit in all five of the Coyotes games thus far, and they’ve only allowed one goal in those five periods.
Karel Vejmelka has been incredible in his three starts this season, with a 2-1-0 record, while boasting a .951 save percentage and a 1.65 goals-against average. He also has the fifth-best +4.7 goals saved above expected.
The Los Angeles Kings have had somewhat of a rocky start. Their goaltending doesn’t appear very trustworthy early on, but the first period under has hit in 60% of their games thus far. Cam Talbot is the expected starter for the Kings tonight, and he is 2-2-0 on the year with a .900 save percentage and a 3.03 goals-against average. The Kings have the league’s eighth-best penalty kill right now at 89.5%, which helps with the concern of the Coyotes’ successful man-advantage unit.
This is a get-right game for the Los Angeles Kings since they have yet to win a game on home ice. No discredit to the Coyotes, but the Kings should be the much better team. I expect Los Angeles to have the early jump, but they’ll be challenged against Vejmelka. This should be another low-scoring first period for the ‘Yotes.
Bet: Under 1.5 in the first period +120 (play to -105)
2023-24 record: 18-15-0 (+2.10 units)
