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NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Monday, December 5th
Monday’s Bets: Washington Capitals +135 (see write up for details)
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
Wins: 35 Losses: 40 Units Won: -5.64 units ROI: -11.9 percent
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Washington Capitals (+135) at Edmonton Oilers (-155)
Bet: Washington Capitals +135 Risk: 0.85 units To Win: 1.15 units
Even if Capitals’ starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper can’t play on Monday, Washington’s chances of beating the Oilers in Edmonton are better than the odds suggest. Kuemper was hurt in Saturday’s loss to the Calgary Flames, but he is still being evaluated and hasn’t been ruled out for this game. Regardless, I’m going with the assumption that backup Charlie Lindgren will get the start. Washington closed around +105 in Seattle last week, and the Oilers aren’t as good as the Kraken right now, so that’s a good indication that the market is already accounting for the possibility that Kuemper will remain out. If that wasn’t the case, this game would be lined closer to a pick ‘em because these two teams, in their current form, are very similar.
Edmonton is better on offense, but that’s about it, and my model estimates that the Capitals should be priced no worse than +125. There’s a chance the market might feel differently if Lindgren is confirmed as the starting goaltender, but I’m comfortable making a smaller than average bet at +135 given that my model sees it as a +EV bet and there’s still a small chance Kuemper will play. Edmonton is a bad defensive team, and Jack Campbell starts in goal, they’ll be worse off at the position than their opponents. Even if Stuart Skinner starts, I’m not all that worried. Skinner is a good goaltender, and he’s the Oilers No. 1 guy, but the Oilers rank among the bottom-10 teams in expected goals against and most of his starts have been underwhelming as of late. Skinner allowed roughly two goals above expected in the month of November.
I’m betting 0.85 units on the Capitals at +135 to win 1.15 units. It’s a good bet, regardless of which goaltender starts for the road team, but it’ll be a banger if Kuemper is healthy enough to start. So much so, that I’ll regret not getting a lot more down. I can’t overexpose myself to Charlie Lindgren, though, so, for now, let’s call it a decent bet with potential.
Notes: Capitals’ defender Dmitry Orlov is nearing a return. The team has not disclosed if he will play on Monday, but defenseman Martin Fehervary will miss the game. Oilers’ forwards Kailer Yamamoto, Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod could play on Monday, but they are still regarded as day-to-day.
Colorado Avalanche (-210) at Philadelphia Flyers (+195)
Thanks to injuries, the Colorado Avalanche are a shell of the team that won the Stanley Cup in 2021-22. Gabriel Landeskog, Val Nichushkin, Bowen Byram and Evan Rodrigues all suffered injuries in November and are still out of the lineup, and Josh Manson and Arturri Lehkonen were both banged up in Saturday’s loss to the Boston Bruins.
Here’s how the Avalanche lineup looks heading into Monday’s game against the Flyers, according to Daily Faceoff:
Forwards
