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NHL Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Saturday, November 19th
Saturday’s Bets: Carolina Hurricanes -120
Wins: 29 Losses: 30 Units Won: -0.09 units ROI: -0.2 percent
I’m tracking all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games start. I keep my own personal records as well and they may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
All game lines via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I will sometimes use the consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it is a better price and widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by recommended stake size. All stats via Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick.
Carolina Hurricanes (-120) at Minnesota Wild (EVEN)
Bet: Carolina Hurricanes (-120) to win one unit.
Based on head coach Dean Evason’s comments on Thursday, it doesn’t sound like Marc-Andre Fleury will be guarding the cage on Saturday when the Wild host the Hurricanes, but there hasn’t been much of an update. That means there’s a good chance will see Filip Gustavsson in goal for Minnesota. However, figuring out Carolina’s starter is tougher, given that Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov have been splitting games since Frederik Andersen was sidelined with an injury. The latter is 2-0 with a .959 save percentage. He was picked 36th overall in 2019, so he has pedigree.
Carolina has been underperforming expected goals, and it doesn’t help that Teuvo Teravainen is out of the lineup, but their peripherals are looking stronger than ever. They’re generating more expected goals per game than they were last season, yet they’re scoring goals at a lower rate. Carolina ranks second in shots for and first in shots against. Regardless of who starts in goal for the Hurricanes, -120 is a short price.
Notes: Teuvo Teravainen is not expected to play and is not close to returning according to the latest reports.
New York Rangers (-155) at San Jose Sharks (+135)
New York has a lot of catching up to do, and since they’re scheduled to play three games in four days against the Sharks, Kings and Ducks, there’s no better time than now. San Jose already upset the Rangers in New York earlier this season, and the Rangers haven’t been winning games (two wins in last seven games), but assuming Igor Shesterkin is in goal, the road team should have much better odds of winning the game. New York is the fifth-best team by expected goals in all situations, and only seven teams generate more expected goals on per 60-minute basis, but somehow, they 22nd in goals. They’re a pretty good defensive team, too, ranking sixth in shot attempts against and seventh in expected goals against. San Jose has scored three or more goals in each of their last 10 games, but they were facing off against some of the worst defensive teams in the league and that must be considered. The team did not score more than three goals in any of their first nine games. The Sharks aren’t a bad defensive team, but they do have the second-worst even strength save percentage in the NHL and the Rangers could use some help scoring goals. If Igor Shesterkin is in goal, the Rangers are a value bet at -160 or better. However, I’m not going to act until the team makes an announcement.
Calgary Flames (+115) at Florida Panthers (-135)
There are some big questions that must be answered before I can bet on Calgary. First, will Aleksander Barkov play? The Panthers’ star forward missed Thursday’s game against Dallas due to an illness. I’m going with the assumption that he will play, but it hasn’t been announced yet and the market typically reacts to news like that. Secondly, who will the starting goaltenders be? Even if I assume Jacob Markstrom is going to start for the Flames, it matters whether Sergei Bobrovsky or Spencer Knight starts for the Panthers. The former hasn’t been good for a while, and the latter has been playing well, albeit in a small sample. The Panthers will be in Columbus to take on the Blue Jackets on Sunday and they have yet to announce a starting goaltender. Once things shake out, and the market settles, there might be some value on the road team. Follow me on Twitter for updates.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-125) at Winnipeg Jets (+105)
This is another game where knowing the starting goaltenders is important. Connor Hellebuyck is the current front runner to win the Vezina Trophy, but there is little doubt about whether the Jets will start him on Saturday. He’s only played one game since November 12th and has started every home game so far this season. Predicting Pittsburgh’s starter is tougher. The Penguins will travel to Chicago for a game on Sunday, so it’s unclear whether Tristan Jarry or Casey DeSmith will start against the Jets. Neither goaltender has been great, but DeSmith has been good, and he’s been the better option. Jarry’s -4.88 goals saved above expected is the seventh-worst mark in the league. My NHL betting model prices the game at around -115 in favor of the Penguins assuming the starting goaltenders are DeSmith and Hellebuyck.
Vegas Golden Knights (-115) at Edmonton Oilers (-105)
Edmonton came into the season as the co-favorite to win the Pacific Division, but they’ve barely looked like a playoff team. The Oilers rank 22nd in expected goals at even strength and are among the bottom-10 teams in goal differential. They’re a top-10 team offensively, but only seven teams have scored fewer goals at even strength. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights rank third in expected goals and only four teams have scored more goals at even strength. This isn’t a good matchup for the Oilers, but a lot of their struggles can be attributed to the poor play of goaltender Jack Campbell, and he won’t be a factor on Saturday as Stuart Skinner will be guarding the cage. Skinner’s +7.68 goals saved above expected is the fifth-best mark in the league. He’s overtaken Vegas’ rookie Logan Thompson (+4.5 goals saved above expected) in that category, and his odds of winning the Calder Trophy have increased significantly. However, it’s not enough to give the Oilers an edge over the Golden Knights, as my NHL betting model suggests that Vegas will win the game approximately 53.5 percent (-115) of the time.
Starting goaltenders: Logan Thompson is expected to start for the Golden Knights. Stuart Skinner will start for Edmonton.
Notes: Oilers’ forward Evander Kane is out long term with a wrist injury. Golden Knights’ forward Nicolas Roy (11 points in 18 games) is out with a lower-body injury.
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