NHL betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 6/11

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Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.

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All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. Follow me on Twitter.

Record: 114-111, -5.15 units, -2.2 percent ROI

Market Report Recap for Thursday, June 9th

The Lightning cashed on the moneyline in Game 5 at -125. It was the first time a road team has won in the series.

Market Report for Saturday, June 11th

Let’s look at Game 6 of the Eastern Conference final from a betting perspective.

New York Rangers (%plussign% 160) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-180)

By now, everyone knows that Andrei Vasilevskiy is the best closer in all of hockey, as he has six shutouts in his last 10 elimination games. Igor Shesterkin has been great, but the Rangers can’t defend like the Lightning can. In the first two games, the Rangers generated 21 high danger chances and scored eight goals at even strength, but in the three games since, the Lightning have outscored the Rangers 8-1 at even strength and held them to just 17 high danger chances. Tampa Bay’s shot attempt percentage hasn’t changed much through the series, but their share of high danger chances went from 56 percent in Games 1 and 2 to 72 percent in Games 3, 4 and 5.

Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn and Brandon Hagel have done a great job of shutting down the Rangers’ top line, especially on home ice, and you can guarantee that they will see a lot of time against Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider in Game 6. The teams haven’t combined for more than five goals in a game since eight goals were scored in Game 1, and that’s not likely to change. Especially since the Lightning have been so good defensively in elimination games. The market has accounted for that, though, and while I do have a tiny edge on under 5.5 goals, it’s not big enough to justify making a bet. If I’m looking for action, I might look to jump in live and bet on the exact score at big odds.

Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat have been carrying the load offensively, and that must continue in Game 6. Kucherov has registered at least four shots on goal in eight of his 16 playoff games and has done so three times in this series. He has 20 shots on goal in five games, and I recommend betting that he will go over 3.5 shots at %plussign% 130. I also recommend betting that Andrei Vasilevskiy will not allow more than two goals at -150. The Rangers were the first team to defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning in back-to-back games since they were swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets back in 2019, but after losing three games in a row, New York must break another streak in order to force a Game 7. My model estimates that the Lightning will win Game 6 around 65 percent of the time, which is in line with the market.

Player Prop Picks via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 Shots %plussign% 130

Andrei Vasilevskiy Goals Against Under 2.5, -150

Bet Summary:

There are no recommended bets currently.

Player Prop Bets:

Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 Shots %plussign% 130

Andrei Vasilevskiy Goals Against Under 2.5, -150

Record: 124-126, -14.55 units, -4.97 percent ROI