Welcome to the daily NHL betting market report, your source for comprehensive and dynamic hockey betting analysis. This page will be updated throughout the day as needed. Be on the lookout for player prop bets. All recommended bets are tracked as one unit (bet to win one unit on favorite and risk one unit on underdog) unless stated otherwise. If you want, you can use the model projection to bet in proportion to its perceived edge.
All game lines via VSiN’s NHL Odds Page. All stats courtesy of Evolving Hockey. Follow me on Twitter.
Record: 112-110, %plussign% -6.65 units, -2.9 percent ROI
Market Report Recap for Monday, June 5th
Just one small bet on the Colorado Avalanche (-130), who completed the sweep of the Edmonton Oilers on Monday.
Market Report for Tuesday, June 6th
Let’s look at Game 4 of the Eastern Conference final from a betting perspective.
New York Rangers (%plussign% 155) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-175)
Heading into the series, it was unclear whether the Lightning would look rested or rusty, as they’d been off for more than a week while the series between New York and Carolina was still ongoing. After two games, it seemed like rust had triumphed with New York leading the series 2-0, but the Lightning’s dominant performance in Game 3 has left everyone wondering if they’ve found their legs. If this series becomes a best-of-three, all the rest that the Lightning had following their sweep of the Florida Panthers will help them. However, they’re going to have to use some of that saved energy to replicate their performance on Sunday, otherwise, it’ll be tough to take down Igor Shesterkin.
Despite carrying the play for the entire game, Tampa Bay trailed 2-0 after the Rangers scored two goals in a little over two minutes at the midway through the second period. Of course, the Lightning did come back, but it took a perfectly executed play in the final minute of the game to get the win. The Rangers are a dangerous team, and even though they were badly outplayed, things could’ve gone their way and the Lightning could be facing elimination. The Lightning finished Game 3 with 86 shot attempts (51 on goal) and still only beat Shesterkin three times. New York had as many shot attempted (51) as the Lightning had shots on goal and expected goals were heavily in favor (4.7-3.1) in their favor.
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Prior to Game 3, the Lightning had only generated more than 60 shot attempts in five out of 13 playoff games, but now we know they can ramp it up. The question is, can they do it again? I would assume that the Rangers will have cleaned some things up on their end, which means it might be easier said than done, but New York has given up a lot of shots in these playoffs (37 per 60 minutes) and the Lightning are a smart team. So, while I do expect the Rangers to be better, I expect the Lightning to play the percentages and generate somewhere around 40 shots on goal in Game 4. The more they attack the Rangers in the offensive zone, the better chance they have of beating Shesterkin. And we can’t forget about Andrei Vasilevskiy. Don’t be surprised if the Big Cat reminds everybody that he’s still the best.
From a betting perspective, things are sort of dull, at least as far as I’m concerned. My model is roughly in line with the market, so I won’t have a pregame bet in Game 4, and I’m still waiting to see what Shesterkin’s total saves prop looks like. It started at 28.5 (-105) in Game 1, which was an easy winner. Then moved to 29.5 (-150) in Game 2, which I avoided. In Game 3, it was 30.5 (-105) and I was back on the train knowing that the Lightning were wise enough to know that they would have to generate a large quantity of shot attempts. Shesterkin has allowed two or fewer goals in eight out of his last 10 games. In the meantime, I did bet that both Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov will register at least four shots on Tuesday at %plussign% 115. They have put the team on their back in Brayden Point’s absence. Stamkos has 15 shots on goal in two games and Kucherov has 14. They have both gone over 3.5 shots in two out of the three games.
Player Prop Picks via DraftKings Sportsbook:
Steven Stamkos Over 3.5 Shots %plussign% 115
Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 Shots %plussign% 120
Bet Summary:
There are no recommended bets currently.
Player Prop Bets:
Steven Stamkos Over 3.5 Shots %plussign% 115
Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 Shots %plussign% 120
Record: 123-125, -14.75 units, -5.08 percent ROI
