Stanley Cup Odds:
The 2025 NHL free agency period, which opened yesterday, saw a flurry of signings, trades, and re-signings across the league. With many of the top free agents re-upping and staying with their original team, we didn’t see a great deal of movement. The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers arguably “won” NHL free agency with their ability to keep all three of their unrestricted free agents, Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, and Aaron Ekblad. Florida’s odds of winning the Cup prior to signing the trio were (+750), but that has since dropped to (+600) after GM Bill Zito made good on his promise to sign all three free agents.
The biggest free agent splash was made by the Vegas Golden Knights on Monday when they orchestrated a sign and trade deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs and acquired Mitch Marner, who was set to become an unrestricted free agent on Tuesday. Toronto received center Nick Roy from the Golden Knights in return. Marner came off a career-high 102 points last season in Toronto and should find himself on Vegas’ top line with Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev. This move significantly boosts the Knights’ scoring depth, a critical need after their second-round playoff exit to the Edmonton Oilers.
Vegas still needed to shed salary. In advance of the Marner deal, they moved defenseman Nic Hague to Nashville for defenseman Jeremy Lauzon and Colton Sissons (Predators are paying half his salary). This trade, along with placing Alex Pietrangelo on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) due to multiple major surgeries, freed up roughly $11 million in effective cap space. Vegas re-signed forward Reilly Smith, a key depth player and clutch performer, to a $2 million contract. Smith, who returned to Vegas mid-season in 2024-25 via trade from the New York Rangers, provides defensive reliability and bottom-six scoring. Vegas was (12/1) prior to the Marner acquisition and has since dropped to (9/1)
The Rangers signed former LA Kings defenseman, Vladislav Gavrikov to a seven-year, $49 million contract. Gavrikov was arguably the best shutdown free agent defenseman available. Look for him to be paired with Adam Fox on the Rangers’ top pair. The Gavrikov addition allowed the Rangers to move on from defenseman K’Andre Miller. The Rangers engineered a sign-and-trade deal that sent Miller to the Carolina Hurricanes, with New York receiving promising defenseman Scott Morrow along with a first and second round draft pick.
After a great deal of speculation that restricted free agent Will Cuylle (20 goals, 45 points last season) was going to be offer sheeted, the Blue Shirts were able to lock him up on a two-year deal ($3.9 million AAV).
Let’s not forget that New York will have a new head coach this season as long-time Penguins bench boss, Mike Sullivan, takes over the head coaching duties. The Rangers saw their odds to win Lord Stanley go from (33/1) just days ago to (28/1) following the opening of Free Agent Frenzy on Tuesday.
Some teams fell short to start Free Agent Frenzy. By losing defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov to the New York Rangers, the Los Angeles Kings created a significant gap in their blue line. Their signings of Cody Ceci (four years, $4.5 million AAV) and Brian Dumoulin (three years, $4 million AAV) would be considered great signings 10 years ago, but both are over 30 and are not fleet of foot. Ceci, a reliable defensive defenseman, was signed to strengthen the blue line after Gavrikov’s departure to the Rangers. His $4.5M cap hit is steep for a player who primarily plays a shutdown role with limited offensive upside (eight points in 2024-25).
While Ceci brings stability and experience, the contract’s value is questionable given the Kings’ cap constraints and need for a more dynamic defenseman. Dumoulin, a two-time Stanley Cup winner with Pittsburgh, adds veteran presence to the blue line. His $4 million cap hit is high for a player whose performance has waned in recent years (six points in 2024-25 with Anaheim). He’s a steady, defensive-minded defenseman who can log minutes on the penalty kill, but like Ceci, he doesn’t address the Kings’ need for offensive production from the back end. This signing feels like a stopgap rather than a long-term solution.
Up front, the Kings added Joel Armia (two years, $2.5 million AAV) and 40-year-old Corey Perry ($3.5 million). It will be interesting to see how Perry is received by Kings fans who booed Perry mercilessly, especially from his days playing for Anaheim and Edmonton. Perry is coming off a 19-goal regular season and added 10 goals in the playoffs last year, but that was playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Neither of those players will suit up for the Kings anytime soon.
Armia, a versatile forward, adds depth to the bottom-six with the ability to slide into a middle-six role. His size (6’3”) and defensive reliability make him a solid fit for the Kings’ system. While Perry and Armia are upgrades over Trevor Lewis and Alex Turcotte, neither put the Kings in a better position to make a significant playoff run. One other addition was in goal. Anton Forsberg takes over from David Rittich as the backup goalie to Darcy Kuemper. The Kings were (20/1) to make the playoffs before Tuesday, and remain at the same odds after the four free agent signings.
The Boston Bruins overpaid for Tanner Jeannot with a five-year, $3.4 million AAV contract, a move widely criticized as excessive for a depth forward with limited offensive upside. They also missed out on bigger names, and their signings, such as Sean Kuraly (two years, $1.85 million AAV) and Mikey Eyssimont, were seen as depth additions rather than game-changers. With a need for significant roster upgrades after a disappointing 2024-25 season, their free agency moves were underwhelming.
Give Oilers General Manager Stan Bowman credit for being able to move both Evander Kane and Viktor Arvidsson without having to take back any salary in either trade, but that’s where it ends. The Oilers could not keep Connor Brown or Corey Perry. As of July 2, the only addition of note is Andrew Mangiapane, who the Oilers are hoping will fit in alongside Leon Draisaitl on Edmonton’s second line. Mangiapane’s best season came in 2021-22 playing alongside Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, when he scored 35 goals. In his five other full seasons, Mangiapane has never scored more than 18 goals.
The Oilers did their best work around the trade deadline last season. It won’t surprise me to see a similar approach once again. Edmonton did lock up Evan Bouchard on a four-year deal. I would anticipate a Connor McDavid deal to be announced closer to the start of the season. All the talk of moving on from Stuart Skinner did not happen. Anaheim’s John Gibson was believed to be on their radar, but Edmonton was not in a position to absorb his entire contract ($6.4 million) like the Red Wings, who acquired Gibson. Skinner is in the final year of his deal (2.6 million), and being tight to the salary cap, it was almost impossible to find a better goalie at that price. The Oilers were (7/1) before the free agency period began and now find themselves at (+850).
Here are some future bets that have caught my eye:
Vegas Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup +900
NY Rangers to win the Eastern Conference +1400
Los Angeles Kings to miss the playoffs +300
