NHL Metropolitan Division Previews
The Rangers won the Presidents Trophy for the most regular season points with 114. They would go on to blow a 2-1 series lead to the Panthers in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it was a thoroughly impressive showing over the first 82 games to get to that point. They held off the Hurricanes by three points, as Carolina was 17 points clear of the Islanders.
To call the Metro top-heavy last season is an understatement. Will it be the same way again? The Rangers (+250) are not even the division favorite and neither are the Hurricanes (+250). The Devils (+230), who finished with just 81 points last season, hold that distinction. While we know that betting odds are not wholly trustworthy predictors of future outcomes, it is staggering to see a team that finished 33 points behind the champ as the favorite.
But, that is the reality and the implication is that the division will be top-heavy again, with the Islanders (+1200), Penguins (+1400), Capitals (+1800), Flyers (+2000), and Blue Jackets (+15000) varying levels of long shots.
This originally appeared in our 2024-25 NHL Betting Guide released on Sept. 24.
Carolina Hurricanes
Stanley Cup: +1300
Division: +250
Points: 100.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -350; No +270
While they aren’t the division favorite, the Hurricanes have one of the heaviest “Yes” prices to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. Rod Brind’Amour’s team has been as consistent as they come over the last three seasons with 111, 113, and 116 points. However, they haven’t gotten over the playoff hump, with their last Stanley Cup Finals appearance coming back in 2006.
The departures are more noteworthy than the arrivals, as the Canes bid adieu to Jake Guentzel, Teuvo Teravainen, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Antti Raanta, among others. The newcomers maybe aren’t household names all the same, but William Carrier, Jack Roslovic, and Tyson Jost are all good players.
Frederik Andersen only played 16 games for Carolina, but he was +11.61 GSAA, so he was outstanding while he was out there. He had a 1.84 GAA and a .932 SV% to go with his 13-2 record. Pyotr Kochetkov had a 2.33 GAA and a .911 SV% in 42 games and ranked 20th in GSAA. As long as both guys stay healthy and can handle the workload, this looks like a top-tier tandem. It isn’t quite Jeremy Swayman-Linus Ullmark in Boston, but Brind’Amour should be able to spread out the playing time.
Carolina actually underperformed at 5-v-5 relative to the expected stats. They were +23 in goal differential, but their expected metrics projected more like +48 in that split, as they were second in 5-v-5 scoring chances for and allowed the fewest against. Only Minnesota allowed fewer high-danger chances and the Canes were one of five teams with at least 800 such scoring chances.
This team also had the league’s top PK and second-best PP. Even with a reshuffling of the lineup, I see no reason to believe Carolina drops off much, if at all.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Stanley Cup: +20000
Division: +15000
Points: 67.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes +1700; No -5000
The futures odds are missing zeroes for the Blue Jackets, who are destined for another year at or near the bottom in the Metropolitan Division. This season has nothing to do with wins and losses for Columbus. This is all about letting the kids play for new head coach Dean Evason. Those kids, specifically, are Adam Fantilli and Cayden Lindstrom, as the Blue Jackets took Fantilli third in the 2023 NHL Draft and Lindstrom fourth this past summer.
Fantilli only had 27 points and was -21 in 49 games last season, as injury robbed him of everything after January 28. Gavin Brindley, the team’s second-round pick in 2023, is another name to watch this season. And that’s precisely what this season will be. Names to watch to see if Columbus can put together a robust young core that can bring the team back to being a playoff contender.
Kirill Marchenko led the team with just 23 goals and was one of two 20-goal scorers along with captain Boone Jenner. Others showed flashes, but the Blue Jackets just don’t have enough finishers and traded one in Patrik Laine, who was limited to 18 games due to mental health issues.
Daniil Tarasov and Jet Greaves seem like the top options between the pipes. Greaves helped lead the Cleveland Monsters to a deep AHL playoff run and played nine games at the NHL level. Tarasov was just 8-11-3 with a 3.18 GAA and a .908 SV%, but his GSAA of 4.00 in all situations ranked 28th among 98 goalies to play this past season.
Sadly, the Blue Jackets will play this season without Johnny Gaudreau, who was tragically killed when he and his brother, Matthew, were hit by a drunk driver while riding bikes on the night before their sister’s wedding. Gaudreau led the team with 60 points, but led the team more with his infectious personality. His leadership will be sorely missed in the Blue Jackets locker room, but his spirit will be missed around the league.
New Jersey Devils
Stanley Cup: +1300
Division: +230
Points: 100.5 (-125/-105)
Playoffs: Yes -400; No +300
The Devils only have three playoff appearances since the 2009-10 season. One of them happened two years ago when they finished second in the Metro Division with 112 points and bowed out in the second round. Last season, Lindy Ruff got fired and the team limped to an 8-12-1 finish under interim head coach Travis Green.
When Sheldon Keefe was fired by the Maple Leafs, the Devils pounced and made him the 31st head coach in franchise history. Keefe’s Leafs were terrific in the regular season, posting a 212-97-40 record. Unfortunately, they were 16-21 in the playoffs and that’s how you keep your job.
Toronto’s loss may very well be New Jersey’s gain, though the season is off to a rough start with Luke Hughes out for the start of the regular season with a shoulder injury suffered over the offseason. Luke, and brother Jack, are two of the building blocks for this Devils squad. Jack had 27 goals and 47 assists last season, while Luke had nine tucks and 38 apples from his defensive position. Unfortunately Quinn, their other brother, is with the Canucks and he may be the best one of the bunch.
In any event, two Hughes are better than none and the Devils have them to construct the roster around. Nico Hischier should be due for a bounce back after missing 11 games. Jack actually missed 20, which is why he finished second to Jesper Bratt in points.
Obviously a bounce back is expected, and the talent is clearly there. However, it may very well come down to the masked men, as newcomer Jacob Markstrom and holdover Jake Allen are in the spotlight. To say that the Devils got bad goaltending last season is an understatement. New Jersey had a collective 3.43 GAA and an .896 SV%. Enter Markstrom, who was 35th among goalies with a 2.23 GSAA last season. None of the Devils’ tendies finished in the positive last season and Vitek Vanecek, who led the team with 32 games played, was among the worst.
New York Islanders
Stanley Cup: +4500
Division: +1200
Points: 91.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -105; No -125
Patrick Roy spent his NHL career being a stopper and not a starter, but he seemed to spark something for the Islanders last season. The Hall of Fame goaltender went 20-12-5 with New York over the final 37 games of the season, leading to a playoff berth. While the Isles were not even close to a match for the heavily-favored Hurricanes, they still gave themselves a chance and made the postseason for the fifth time in six years.
“Exciting” is not really a word used to describe Islanders hockey. They finished 22nd in goals scored and 19th in goals allowed, due in large part to the worst penalty kill in the league. The power play graded just below average, despite three 30-goal scorers on the roster in Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat, and Kyle Palmieri. There were only two other 20-goal scorers, though, as the Islanders struggled to find secondary scoring all season long.
This is also one of the oldest rosters in the NHL, so there aren’t a lot of flashy speedsters in the lineup. Coming into the season, this looks like a decent team to pick against in the Metropolitan Division. New York got 16 loser points for falling short in overtime and actually finished 39-43 on the season over 82 games. They went 8-1-1 at the end of the year to make everything look better.
There are plenty of reasons to sell the team, but what makes that easier said than done is the goaltending tandem of Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin. By GSAA in all situations, Varlamov was 12th and Sorokin was 18th out of 98 goaltenders. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Islanders allowed 165 more scoring chances at 5-v-5 than they generated and allowed the fifth-most shots on goal.
But, Varlamov and Sorokin were a formidable last line of defense. Any drop-off in performance would be a bad sign for the Isles and that is certainly possible, though Sorokin was the runner-up for the Vezina Trophy in 2023 and actually regressed badly last season, as the Isles still made the postseason.
New York Rangers
Stanley Cup: +1300
Division: +250
Points: 100.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -350; No +270
The NHL’s top regular season team looks pretty similar to what we saw last year. Veteran winger Reilly Smith is the only notable addition for a Rangers crew that kept the core intact and looks poised to be at or near the top of the division once again. Artemi Panarin had 120 points during a record-setting season for him and his passing skills rubbed off on four other players with at least 25 goals, including 39 from Chris Kreider.
The Rangers are a tough handicap for the 2024-25 season, though. They were extremely pedestrian at 5-v-5 to be the team that had the most regular season points with 114. In fact, they were just +1 in goal differential at the most common game state by a large margin. By their expected metrics, they actually should have been about -6. They only generated 29 more scoring chances and actually had 16 fewer high-danger chances than their opponents.
But, the Rangers were third in PP% and PK%, so that made up for their mediocre play at 5-v-5. Goaltender Igor Shesterkin is also the great equalizer, as he was ninth in GSAA in all situations at 14.25. Backup Jonathan Quick was also terrific in his somewhat limited role. Shesterkin had a 2.58 GAA and a .913 SV%, with Quick nearly identical at 2.62 and .911.
Panarin had 44 of his points on the power play. Kreider had 18 of his goals. Mika Zibanejad had 31 of his 72 points on the PP. New York’s 5-v-5 play is going to turn some people off heading into the season, even though their top guys all recorded very good plus/minus numbers. Shesterkin as the last line of defense is a great safety net.
I do think some bettors will look at the Rangers as a regression candidate, though. With the Hurricanes as consistent as they come and a bounce back expected from the Devils, my guess is that data-driven hockey bettors will look at the Rangers as third on that list of teams.
Philadelphia Flyers
Stanley Cup: +6000
Division: +2000
Points: 85.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes +200; No -250
Having no affiliation or ties to the Flyers, I don’t really care if they win or lose. However, winning would make head coach John Tortorella’s postgame pressers a whole lot less interesting. The 66-year-old bench boss is starting his third season in a suit and tie for the Flyers and they are 69-71-24 in his two seasons. He’s inarguably the most colorful of the 32 head coaches.
It is really hard to know what the Flyers are or where they are going. It will help to have 2023 first-round pick Matvei Michkov in the lineup this season, but the Flyers still need more than him. He did have 41 points in 47 games in the KHL last season playing against professionals at just 19 years of age. Given that Travis Konecny led the team in points with just 68 and only three players had at least 50 points, his impact could be significant.
This was far and away the worst power play in the league with a 12.2% success rate. That was nearly 3% worse than anybody else and nearly 9% below league average. Ironically, the Flyers led the league in shorthanded goals with 16, more than half (31) of what they had on the man advantage.
On the positive side for the Flyers, three of their four 20-goal scorers are 25 or under. Unfortunately, the Flyers also had only one defenseman with more than 30 points, an example of how atrocious the power play truly was. This is a rebuild for all intents and purposes, but the Flyers are going to need some guys to overperform relative to expectation to get some stars.
Carter Hart played well between the pipes, but his alleged involvement in a 2018 sexual assault led to his release from the team. Samuel Ersson was one of the worst regular goaltenders in the league last season with -15.58 GSAA, so the Flyers have major concerns in net entering the season.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Stanley Cup: +4500
Division: +1400
Points: 90.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes +120; No -150
The Penguins seem to have a couple more kicks at the can with their current core, especially with Sidney Crosby agreeing to a two-year extension about a week before the start of preseason games. Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are still extremely valuable players. Outside of Kris Letang, the supporting cast has been a carousel of sorts around Sid and Geno, but the Penguins still manage to be more than relevant.
Pittsburgh did fall short of the playoffs by a few points last season, but had a better goal differential than both the Islanders and Capitals. In fact, the Penguins, Red Wings, and Sabres were the only teams to miss the postseason with a positive goal differential. They were a good team at 5-v-5 with a +7 goal differential, but 241 more shots on goal than their opponents and also the third-most high-danger chances at that game state.
The power play suffered from a season-long power outage, cashing in just 15.3% of the time, better than the lowly Blue Jackets and the Flyers. Struggling on the PP with Erik Karlsson and Letang healthy for 82 games each seems rather insane, though Letang only had five power play points and zero power play goals, so that explains that.
While the forward and defense groups don’t stand out a ton, this is still a team with enough talent to get by. The problem is that the netminders provided little help. Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic were both below average by GSAA and that is one area of the team that will only improve if Joel Blomqvist improves it. Blomqvist was the primary goalie for Wilkes-Barre in the AHL and had a 2.16 GAA with a .921 SV% over 45 games.
As long as the Core Four – Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson, Letang – stays healthy, Pittsburgh has a high floor, but the ceiling is pretty capped in a tough division.
Washington Capitals
Stanley Cup: +6000
Division: +1800
Points: 89.5 (-120/-110)
Playoffs: Yes +155; No -190
The Capitals are unlikely to be a bad team, but this season is all about “Wayne Watch”. Alex Ovechkin needs 42 goals to pass Wayne Gretzky’s all-time record of 894. This will be The Great 8’s 20th NHL season and he had 31 goals last season, the fewest of his career outside of the 2020-21 COVID season when he was limited to 45 games. Fifteen of Ovechkin’s goals came on the power play, the most he’s had since 2013-14.
This was not a very good team last season. The Capitals made the playoffs, but finished -37 in goal differential. That set a record for the lowest goal differential in the salary cap era (2005-06) and the lowest since the 1990-91 season. Washington was a pathetic -32 at 5-v-5 in the goal-scoring department and while the expected metrics say they got unlucky with a projected goal diff of -17, only the Ducks had fewer 5-v-5 shots on goal.
Washington only had three 20-goal scorers and traded one of them in Anthony Mantha at the Trade Deadline. Dylan Strome led the team with 67 points. Alex was second with 65. No other forward had more than 35 points. Defenseman John Carlson had 52, with over a third of them on the power play.
The Capitals were in the bottom half of the league in both special teams areas. The play of Charlie Lindgren was a huge reason why they made the playoffs and even had a winning record. By GSAA in all situations, Lindgren was a top-15 netminder. Head coach Spencer Carbery may not have to rely as much on Lindgren, as the Capitals have a much better backup in Logan Thompson now, but he’ll still be reliant on the goalies to bail out the rest of the team.
The Capitals did bring in a little upside in Jakob Chychrun on the back end and Pierre-Luc Dubois up front, but roster turnover has really taken a toll on the talent level of this team.
