NHL Pacific Division Previews
A surprise changing of the guard was the headline in the Pacific Division last season. The Canucks took down a division crown for the first time in 11 years. The Oilers finished second, but got incredibly hot in the postseason to roll all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals before losing in a Game 7 heartbreaker. The reigning Cup champion Golden Knights finished fourth and bowed out in the first round for just the second time in franchise history out of six playoff appearances.
The Oilers (-105) are the only odds-on favorite around the league, but my belief is that there are some good betting opportunities on the other teams. The Canucks (+400) have the longest odds of any division champ looking to run it back. The Golden Knights (+450) had to make some tough roster decisions, so they’ll look different.
Maybe the Kings (+650) are the team after going 21-12-1 under interim head coach Jim Hiller, who was hired as the full-time guy. The long shots are the Kraken (+1800), Flames (+3500), Ducks (+10000), and Sharks (+25000). The playoff teams in this division feel like a foregone conclusion, as this is the weakest one top to bottom.
This originally appeared in our 2024-25 NHL Betting Guide released on Sept. 24.
Anaheim Ducks
Stanley Cup: +20000
Division: +10000
Points: 70.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes +1400; No -4000
The Ducks have fallen on some really hard times. They’ve finished sixth or worse in the Pacific Division each of the last six seasons. First-year head coach Greg Cronin didn’t find much success with a 27-50-5 debut, with 50 losses setting a new franchise record, topping the one that was set the previous year with 47 under Dallas Eakins.
As you would expect with that record, the Ducks were awful at 5-v-5, getting outscored by 46 goals. They only scored 127, better than only the Blackhawks and Sharks. They were on the higher end of goals allowed, but it wasn’t egregious like San Jose and Chicago, who allowed 226 and 202 goals, respectively. The Ducks actually deserved a little bit better of a fate by expected goals, both for and against.
The big discrepancy in high-danger chances was the culprit, but the Ducks may be more dangerous moving forward. The one advantage to being bad is that you get a high draft pick. The Ducks have gotten a lot of high draft picks. They took RW Beckett Sennecke this season and he could play right away, just like Leo Carlsson did last season after being taken second overall. Carlsson had 29 points in 55 games. The Ducks also played Pavel Mintyukov in 63 games after taking him 10th overall in 2022.
It may also be near breakout time for Mason McTavish, the team’s top pick in 2021. So, it is all about development for the Ducks and they have a lot invested in their recent top selections. Veterans like Frank Vatrano, Troy Terry, and free agent signings Robby Fabbri and Brian Dumoulin set the example and also eat up some important minutes.
The one area the Ducks have neglected in the draft, like so many teams in recent years, is goaltending. Six-foot-6 netminder Darian Clara will play in the Swedish league again this season after being a second-round pick last year. He’s probably the best hope moving forward, as aging John Gibson is coming off of an atrocious season as the 96th-ranked goalie in GSAA out of 98 tracked by Natural Stat Trick, and Lukas Dostal graded below average as well.
Calgary Flames
Stanley Cup: +7500
Division: +3500
Points: 81.5 (-105/-125)
Playoffs: Yes +300; No -400
The last 15 seasons have been tough for Flames fans. Five playoff appearances are spread across that span and the Flames have only made it past the first round twice. Their 81-point showing last season for first-year head coach Ryan Huska was the lowest in a full 82-game season since 2015-16. That was the last season of the Bob Hartley era and the Flames have had six different full-time head coaches since.
Expectations are not high for this season either. One of the many problems for Calgary is that they’ve been bad, but not quite bad enough to draft high. Even last season, the Flames were only bad enough to pick ninth and they took Zayne Parekh in hopes of helping the defense. Other than that, the Flames have picked 16th, 59th, 13th, 24th, and 26th over the last five Entry Drafts.
That’s not to say that this team lacks talent. It just doesn’t have enough of it. Nazem Kadri led the team with 75 points, but he’s 33 now. Yegor Sharangovich enters his age-26 season after leading the team with 31 goals, but 32-year-old Blake Coleman was second and just had his first 30-goal season.
One youthful bright spot may be goaltender Dustin Wolf. Wolf was terrific for the AHL Calgary Wranglers last season with a 2.45 GAA and a .922 SV%. He was the best goalie in the league during the 2022-23 season with a 2.09 GAA and a .932 SV%. He will get the first crack at replacing Jacob Markstrom, who ranked 35th in GSAA. Wolf finished his first NHL stint 7-7-1 with a 3.16 GAA and an .893 SV%, so there is still some growing to do.
Wolf is the last line of defense for a team that finished -14 in 5-v-5 goal differential and finished in the bottom 25% of the league in power play percentage. That puts a lot of pressure on the youngster because there probably won’t be much margin for error.
Edmonton Oilers
Stanley Cup: +800
Division: -105
Points: 108.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -1400; No +800
The Stanley Cup favorites boast the heaviest chalk to make the playoffs and the highest point total line at DraftKings. Edmonton was one win away from making history, not only as the team to end Canada’s long-standing Stanley Cup drought, but also becoming the first team to erase a 3-0 series deficit in the Finals. The Panthers were able to right the ship and won a dramatic 2-1 Game 7, but the Oilers finally met and even exceeded expectations.
It certainly helps to have the best player in the world, but it turns out that hiring said player’s juniors coach was the key to unlocking it all. Connor McDavid played for the Erie Otters under head coach Kris Knoblauch. Knoblauch had a couple seasons as an assistant with the Flyers and was the Hartford Wolf Pack head coach when the Oilers came calling.
Edmonton started the season 3-9-1 under Jay Woodcroft. They would finish it 46-18-5 under Knoblauch and beat the Kings, Canucks, and Stars to get to the Finals for the first time since 2006. While Canada’s Stanley Cup drought extended another year, the Oilers further established themselves as one of the Western Conference’s best.
The Cup run seemed to obscure the fact that this was a good team to begin with. The Oilers have finished second in the Pacific Division in five straight seasons and made the playoffs in all of them. Goaltending has always been the issue, as an offense with McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is always going to do its part. The Oilers did that last season with 193 goals at 5-v-5, the third-most in the league.
But, they also were +40 in goal differential because Stuart Skinner stopped a lot of pucks. He had a 2.62 GAA with a .905 SV%, but he did not play well in the postseason for long stretches, posting a -2.44 GSAA. The Oilers are running it back with Skinner and most of the rest of last season’s key players, hence the very high benchmarks in the betting market.
Los Angeles Kings
Stanley Cup: +2200
Division: +650
Points: 96.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -240; No +195
Defense doesn’t always win championships, but it can get you into the playoffs. That was the case for the Kings, who had a pedestrian offense, but a stout defense. LA allowed the fifth-fewest goals at 5-v-5 and scored the 12th-fewest, but that was good enough for a +22 goal differential and a solid regular season record.
The Kings did make a midseason change and swapped out head coach Todd McClellan for Jim Hiller and won 21 of their 34 games after going 23-15-10 to open the year. Special teams were another huge key to the season for the Kings, as they had the second-best PK% and made up for some of their even-strength offensive troubles by finishing 11th in PP%.
Hiller has been in charge of the power play throughout his career as an assistant coach, so we could see a modest bump from that unit this season with full control. We could also see a bump because guys like Quinton Byfield and Arthur Kaliyev are a year older. Byfield had 55 points in 80 games and Kaliyev, a pure scorer coming up the ranks, had 15 points in 51 games.
The Kings still have some franchise fixtures like Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty to show the younger players the way. Unlike some other aging veterans, Kopitar and Doughty are still producing at very high levels. The Kings only had five 20-goal scorers, but they had tremendous balance in terms of point production, as eight guys had at least 40 points, including Doughty, the only defenseman.
The main question for LA this season is how David Rittich and Darcy Kuemper perform in net. Cam Talbot was a top-10 goaltender by GSAA, but Rittich, who played 30 fewer games, ranked 15th in GSAA. Kuemper was awful for the Capitals and finished 91st of 98 tracked goalies at Natural Stat Trick in GSAA at -12.19. I guess we’ll see if it’s just a “system” thing in LA.
San Jose Sharks
Stanley Cup: +40000
Division: +25000
Points: 64.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes +2200; No -8000
The Stanley Cup favorites and the longest long shot both reside in the Pacific Division. It is the Sharks who are the latter. San Jose’s 47-point season wasn’t even the worst in franchise history. Far from it, actually, as the Sharks’ first two seasons as a franchise featured 39 and 24 points, with the 24-point season coming over 84 games in 1992-93.
Nevertheless, they were awful and their prize at the end of a very long tunnel was Macklin Celebrini, who was going first overall in the 2024 NHL Draft several years ago. Celebrini was the youngest Hobey Baker Award winner in history during his freshman season at Boston University and a superstar at both Shattuck St. Mary’s and with the Chicago Steel in the USHL. Adam Fantilli, Jack Eichel, and Paul Kariya are the only players to win the Hobey Baker as freshmen. That’s decent company.
The cupboard is not entirely bare for the Sharks up front. Celebrini will play from Day 1, but he has a little bit of help, including recently-signed Tyler Toffoli. Most of last season’s top scorers are back in the fold, including 2021 first-round pick William Eklund, who had 45 points in 80 games.
This will likely be a team that puts the puck in the net, but also digs it out of the cage under the red, circling light as well. The Sharks project to be awful on defense yet again. They took Sam Dickinson 11th overall this past June, but time will tell if he plays right away or even has an impact. San Jose gave up 226 goals at 5-v-5 last season, 24 more than any other team. They were the only team to give up over 900 high-danger chances.
If Yaroslav Askarov, who is missing the start of training camp with an injury, is a truly special netminder, the situation looks a little less bleak. He was acquired from the Predators this offseason. Vitek Vanacek was among the worst goalies in the league and Mackenzie Blackwood was well below average as well. Sharks goalies faced the most shots in the league by a significant margin, so this group will be under duress again.
Seattle Kraken
Stanley Cup: +5500
Division: +1800
Points: 87.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes +170; No -210
It is hard to believe that the Kraken were released three seasons ago already. This is the start of Year 4 and it is a year with new beginnings, as former Penguins head coach Dan Bylsma takes over for Dave Hakstol. Hakstol led the Kraken to a playoff berth in Year 2 and had two losing seasons otherwise before getting fired.
Bylsma is well-versed in the organizational goals, as he coached the AHL affiliate in Coachella Valley to the Calder Cup Finals last season. In fact, it was the second season in a row that his team made the finals. Now Bylsma gets another shot at the NHL level and he has a good, but not great, roster at his disposal.
Matty Beniers is probably about ready to take a leap after having 37 points in 77 games in his third NHL season. He actually had 57 points in 80 games in 2022-23, but that was a much better overall team. Shane Wright, the team’s 2022 first-round pick, had seven points in 16 games at the NHL level and 47 points in 59 games for Coachella Valley. He had 14 points in 13 playoff games. Berkly Catton was drafted from the nearby Spokane Chiefs in the WHL and could make his debut in October.
As much as there are some promising players up front and some decent players on defense, last season was all about goaltender Joey Daccord. Daccord was stellar to say the least, as he ranked fourth in GSAA in all situations at 16.65. But, to illustrate what Seattle’s main issue was, they were seventh in goals allowed at 5-v-5 and still finished with a negative goal differential in that split.
Special teams were a problem both ways, as the Kraken ranked 17th on the PP and 19th on the PK. Seattle is a very analytically-driven organization and many believe that they overpaid free agents Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour, but the problems on special teams and the problems with generating offense overall need to be solved in some way. Maybe spending is the way to do it.
Vancouver Canucks
Stanley Cup: +1800
Division: +400
Points: 99.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -320; No +250
Are the reigning Pacific Division champions being disrespected? It all depends on your view with the goaltending situation. Thatcher Demko, who was spectacular last season when he was out there with a 20.76 GSAA to rank second behind Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, suffered a knee injury in the playoffs and it seems to have been a rather severe one.
Full details have never really been shared, but some NHL insiders have hinted that Demko may never be 100% again and it could be an issue of pain tolerance throughout his career. Demko was also hurt during the season and returning may have exacerbated an ongoing issue or created another one, so the Canucks go into this season not knowing when he’ll be able to return or to what degree he can shoulder an NHL workload.
Contingency plans include Jiri Patera and Arturs Silovs, as it was Silovs who took over for the remainder of the series against the Oilers. Silovs only played four regular season games and was slightly below average by GSAA. It was Casey DeSmith who primarily filled in during the season, but he was not retained. With Demko’s uncertainty, looking at the 2023-24 numbers seems a little bit inconsequential, but the Canucks were +51 in goal differential at 5-v-5 and scored the fifth-most goals.
The burden on the offense will increase with the Demko situation, but the offense is really good and should continue to be. Quinn Hughes had 92 points as the best offensive defenseman not named Cale Makar in the league and J.T. Miller had 103 points. Brock Boeser had 40 goals. The offensive numbers are even more impressive when you consider that the Canucks ranked 12th in PP success.
Vancouver finished 17th on the PK and with the old adage that “the goalie is your best penalty killer”, that’s cause for concern. Head coach Rick Tocchet will have a lot to figure out and navigate as the season goes along, but league average goalie play will help Vancouver reach their goals.
Vegas Golden Knights
Stanley Cup: +1800
Division: +450
Points: 97.5 (-115/-115)
Playoffs: Yes -300; No +235
Living in Las Vegas, I can tell you that the Golden Knights have as rabid of a fan base as it gets. Unfortunately, a lot of those who own jerseys are having to consider a new number and nameplate on the back. Teams that sustain long stretches of good play ultimately wind up with major salary cap concerns. The Golden Knights, who are the best in the business at circumventing the cap until it no longer matters come playoff time, have had to make some tough choices.
Marc-Andre Fleury was the first one, but now the team doesn’t have Jonathan Marchessault, William Carrier, Chandler Stephenson, or Alec Martinez. Goalie Logan Thompson was traded mere minutes before signing autographs at a fan event. It is a bummer for a city that has embraced this team wholeheartedly and even feels personal connections with a lot of the players, but the silver lining is that the current roster is still more than capable of making noise.
The Knights still have Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and William Karlsson. Except for the loss of Martinez, the defensive core remains intact, including Trade Deadline acquisition Noah Hanifin. Ilya Samsonov and Adin Hill could share goaltending duties. Samsonov was awful for the Maple Leafs last season with a -14.98 GSAA, but Hill was a top-25 goalie by that metric. It remains to be seen if Robin Lehner will be with the club this season.
We saw some of the roster attrition and the impact of injury last season. The Knights were only +13 in 5-v-5 goal differential and only +10 in scoring chances, as well as +12 in high-danger chances. This was previously a team that posted dominant metrics at 5-v-5. The special teams were also very pedestrian.
It may all come down to health. Eichel played 63 games last season. Stone played 56. Shea Theodore played 47. The lineup never seemed to be at full strength, except, ironically, Marchessault, who played all 82 games. This is still a team with a very high floor, but the ceiling is debatable.
