NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Friday, April 25:
Here are Friday’s NHL predictions.
Washington Capitals (-120, 5.5) at Montreal Canadiens
Game Three
7 p.m. ET
The Bell Centre in Montreal is one of the best atmospheres in the NHL to watch a hockey game. They take up a few notches when it comes to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Canadiens will look to feed off their fans tonight, much like the St. Louis Blues did on Thursday against the Winnipeg Jets, as the Habs look to avoid going down 3-0 in the series.
Goals have been at a premium in this series, with just nine goals scored in the series and eight past a goalie (Capitals had one into an empty net). Even with goals at a premium, sportsbooks aren’t willing to post a total of five for tonight and are leaning to this game going over the total, as you must pay a 25 percent “tax” to play the Over. For me, the play is Under or pass, and I will pass on the total.
What I won’t pass on is the Canadiens scoring the first goal of the game. I grabbed at FanDuel, the Canadiens to score the first goal in regulation at (-105). Not all Sportsbooks offer this prop play. I wouldn’t be opposed to playing Montreal first period Over ½ goal (-150). If the juice is a little much for you, then you can always wait for a few minutes and get a better “live” price, but I would invest half your bet “pre-flop” and then invest the rest on the better “live” price.
My favorite play in this game is to ladder Habs forward, Juraj Slafkovsky, shots on goal prop. Slafkovsky has nine shots on goal (five and four) in the first two games of the series. He has had two or more shots on goal in 20 of his last 28 games and 14 times he has had at least three shots on goal. FanDuel offers a better price on its shots on goal prop, with the catch that it does not include overtime. I will pay for the extra juice to include overtime. I am also on an Alexander Ovechkin anytime goal. It was as high as (+155) last night, but that price is gone.
Game Three Predictions:
Montreal Canadiens to score the 1st goal of the game in regulation (-105) – ½ unit
Juraj Slafkovsky Over 1.5 shots on goal (-175) – 3 units
Juraj Slafkovsky Over 2.5 shots on goal (+180) – .25 units
Alexander Ovechkin anytime goal (+130) – .10 units
Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers (-145, 5.5)
Game Three
10 p.m. ET
The Edmonton Oilers are in unfamiliar territory when it comes to playing the Los Angeles Kings in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. After taking out the Kings in seven, six and five games over the past three seasons, the Oilers are down 2-0 as the series shifts back to Edmonton. Last year, when Edmonton eliminated Los Angeles, the Oilers killed all 12 power play opportunities that the Kings had. Through two games, the Kings have scored five times on their 10 opportunities. The Oilers have come up empty on all five of their opportunities with the man advantage.
The Oilers opened as a (-135) favorite, and they have been taking money as we are seeing a “10 cent” move in their direction (as of 1 p.m. Eastern). While I don’t agree with the line move, I do understand it. The Oilers are in a virtual “must win.” the Kings have not been a good road team, and Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl.
The counter to that is the Kings are deeper than the Oilers this year. That depth so far has been enough to overcome the two Edmonton superstars. I am staying away from “the side” in tonight’s contest but will be on the Over 5.5 (-140). Shop around on the total as 6 and 6.5 are out there. Sixteen of the last 20 times these two teams have met in the playoffs, we have had six combined goals or more. If you like Edmonton to win tonight, then I would target the Kings’ team total Under 2.5 goals (+110). This season (regular season and playoffs), the Kings are 41-0-2 when scoring three goals or more.
It’s never great for a goalie when his goals against average and save percentage numbers are very similar, and that is the case with Oilers goalie, Stuart Skinner. Through two games, he has 6.11 goals against average and an .810 save percentage. Those numbers have forced the hand of Oilers coach Chris Knoblauch to make a goaltending change, and Calvin Pickard will get the start tonight.
The Oilers have also decided to stack their top line tonight, putting Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman together. I will play all three in a parlay to each record one point tonight. On the Kings’ side, it’s all about Adrian Kempe and Andrei Kuzmenko. Kempe leads the Kings with three goals in the series and has 12 goals in his last 13 playoff games against the Oilers. Kempe has also been a shot-on-goal machine. He had eight shots on goal in game two and three in game one. He has had three shots on goal or more in 12 of the last 13 playoff games against Edmonton, four shots on goal or more in nine of 13, and at least five and six shots on goal in six of the 13 games.
Game Three Predictions:
McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman Over ½ pt each parlay (+100) – 1 unit
Los Angeles Kings/Edmonton Oilers Over 5.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Adrian Kempe anytime goal (+180)- .20 units
Adrian Kempe Over 2.5 shots on goal in regulation (-130) – 1.5 units
Adrian Kempe Over 3.5 shots on goal (includes OT) +140 – .25 units
Adrian Kempe Over 4.5 shots on goal (includes OT) +300 – .10 units
Andrei Kuzmenko anytime goal +340 – .20 units
Andrei Kuzmenko Over ½ assist +164 – .20 units
