NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Friday, May 16
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers (-230, 5.5)
Florida leads series 3-2
8 p.m. ET
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a chance to rewrite their narrative. The Maple Leafs’ performance in Game Five on home ice, getting blasted 6-1, was truly embarrassing. The home crowd booed the Leafs off the ice; they tossed jerseys onto the ice. How can you blame them when you’re dropping upwards of $500 a ticket?
Good thing the Stanley Cup Playoffs don’t involve aggregate scoring because Toronto would have a very tall hill to climb. Instead, a win tonight for Toronto and they force a winner-takes-all Game Seven on Sunday. Here’s the problem. They are facing the defending Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers, who have been getting better as the series has gone on, outscoring the Leafs 12-2 since trailing 3-1 in Game Three.
It’s simple for Toronto; their best players, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, must wake up. The two have combined for one goal and six assists. It is likely that Matthews is dealing with some type of injury to his hand that many feel occurred when he took a shot off his hand in the Ottawa series. Nic Robertson, who was inserted into the lineup in Game Five and scored the only Leafs goal, has more goals than Matthews in the series. All that earned Robertson was a return to the press box for tonight’s Game Six.
Tonight is the 15th game of the postseason that we have the potential to have handshakes at the end of the game. Eleven of the previous 14 games have been decided by two or more goals. In all four games won by the team needing to extend the series, they have won by two goals or more. Based on those numbers, the Maple Leafs are worth sprinkling some money on the reverse puck line (play Toronto -1.5 goals +425). There are two ways to attack Florida tonight. You can play them on the puck line or their team total (Over 3.5 and/or Over 4). The Panthers have scored four or more goals in four of their six wins in this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, and Toronto has given up four or more goals in four of their five losses in the playoffs.
On to the player props for tonight. I will target Auston Matthews and Florida’s Sam Reinhart each to record three shots on goal in regulation. Reinhart has 19 shots on goal in the last three games (7,6,6), and Matthews has gone eight straight and 10 of the 11 playoff games this year with at least three shots on goal. Brad Marchand and Aaron Ekblad have feasted on the Leafs in the playoffs. Marchand has five points in five games in the series and now has 33 points in 32 games for his career against Toronto in the postseason. Ekblad, who scored in Game Four, now has five points in four games in the series and 10 points in nine career playoff games against Toronto.
Game Six Predictions:
Brad Marchand anytime goal (+270) – .20 units
Brad Marchand Over ½ assist (+215)- .20 units
Aaron Ekblad Over ½ assist (+142) – .20 units
Aaron Ekblad anytime goal (+675) – .20 units
Auston Matthews/Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 SOG parlay – in regulation (+141) – 1.5 units
Florida Panthers TT Over 3.5 (-110) – 1.5 units
Florida Panthers TT Over 4 (+145) – .50 units
Matthew Knies anytime goal (+300) – .10 units
Jesper Boqvist anytime goal (+450) – .10 units
