NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Friday, May 9
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers (-230, 5.5)
Game Three: Toronto leads series 2-0
7 p.m. ET
This series now shifts to South Florida with the Panthers finding themselves in a 2-0 hole. I realize the Panthers are the defending Stanley Cup Champions, and this is kind of a “must-win” game tonight. But “must-win” doesn’t mean will win, and there is no way Florida should be a (-230) favorite. I am not saying the Panthers will lose, but for me, it’s betting on Toronto or pass on the side entirely.
Toronto will once again turn to Joseph Woll between the pipes as number one goalie, Anthony Stolarz still dealing with the effects of a puck and elbow to the noggin and did not make the trip. While Woll is the number two goalie on the Leafs depth chart, he could be number one for many teams around the league.
Goaltending has been the issue with the Panthers, as Sergei Bobrovsky, who was stellar in the opening round versus Tampa, has struggled in the first two games against Toronto. Both games in this series have flown Over the total of 5.5. Toronto team total Over 2.5 at plus money is on my bingo card. The Maple Leafs have scored three or more goals in seven of their playoff games. While both these games have been decided by one goal of the 22 games in this year’s playoffs won by the underdog, 15 times they have won by two or more goals.
Lots of players props to jump on for both sides for tonight’s game. Toronto forward William Nylander has three goals in the series, six goals in this year’s playoffs and nine goals in his last 10 playoff games overall. Max Pacioretty has a goal and four points in the series and two goals and six points in his last three games. Matthew Knies scored in game one of this series and is second on the team in the playoffs with four goals. He is available at (+300) to score a goal. I will grab that price for a player on the number one line and top power play unit.
On the Florida side, the Panthers have been powered by their third line in the first two games. The trio of Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen: each have a goal and an assist. Marchand’s 11 goals and 21 assists in the playoffs has him fourth all-time in playoff scoring against Toronto.
One final prop for tonight is for the Panthers to score the first goal of the game. Teams coming off a loss scored the first goal in the next game 28 out of 42 times. Below is my Cheesecake Factory menu of plays.
Game Three NHL Predictions:
Florida Panthers to score 1st goal (-170) – 1 unit
Toronto Maple Leafs Team Total Over 2.5 (+105) – 2 units
Toronto Maple Leafs ML (+195) – .10 units
Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 goals (+430) – .10 units
Florida Panthers empty net goal (+200) – .10 units
Toronto Maple Leafs empty net goal (+575) – .10 units
Max Pacioretty anytime goal (+550) – .05 units
Max Pacioretty Over ½ assist (+250) – .05 units
William Nylander anytime goal (+195) – .10 units
Matthew Knies anytime goal (+300) – .10 units
Brad Marchand anytime goal (+280) – .05 units
Brad Marchand Over ½ assist (+190) – .05 units
Anton Lundell anytime goal (+400) – .05 units
Anton Lundell Over ½ assist (+265) – .05 units
Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets (-135, 5.5)
Game Two (Stars lead series 1-0)
9:30 p.m. ET
The Jets got Mark Scheifele back for game one and are expected to get their number one defenseman Josh Morrissey back tonight. Still, Morrissey to me is not worth a “20 cent” line move as the Jets opened at (-115) and have been bet up to (-135). The Stars’ Mikko Rantanen is treating the Stanley Cup Playoffs like a video game. Rantanen has factored in on a Stanley Cup Playoffs record 12 consecutive goals (seven goals, five assists), has hat tricks in back-to-back games, eight goals and 14 points in his last four games and five goals and seven assists in six career playoff games versus the Jets. While Connor Hellebuyck can hardly be faulted for any of Rantanen’s three goals in Game One, it did mark the seventh time in eight playoff games that he has given up three goals or more. Stars defenseman Thomas Harley picked up an assist in game one and is third on the team in scoring with six points.
With the Jets coming off a loss in Game One, I am on Winnipeg to score the first goal of the game tonight. The team coming off a loss has scored the first goal in the next game 28 out of 42 times, and they have scored a first period goal in 29 of those games. Mark Scheifele scored in Game One of the series and increased his playoff goal total to a franchise best 24. Adam Lowry thrives at playoff time and is always worth a shot at a big plus price for a goal.
Game Two Predictions:
Winnipeg Jets to score 1st goal of the game (-115) – 1units
Dallas Stars Team Total Over 2.5 (-150) – 2 units
Thomas Harley Over ½ Assist (+150) – .20 units
Mark Scheifele anytime goal (+170) – .10 units
Adam Lowry anytime goal (+600) – .10 units
Mikko Rantanen anytime goal (+175) – .20 units
Mikko Rantanen 2+ goals (+1200) – .10 units
Mikko Rantanen 3+ goals (+7500) – .05 units
Dallas Stars empty net goal (+340) – .10 units
Winnipeg Jets empty net goal (+180) – .10 units
Dallas Stars -1.5 goals (+280) – .10 units
Stanley Cup Playoffs by the Numbers
| Series – Round 1 | 1st Period BTTS | 1st Period Over/Under | 2nd Period Over/Under | 3rd Period Over/Under | Full Game Over/Under |
| Canes/ Devils | 0-5 | 2-3 | 4-1 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Bolts/ Panthers | 3-2 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Canadiens/ Capitals | 1-4 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Leafs/ Senators | 2-4 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 3-3 |
| Avalanche/ Stars | 1-6 | 4-3 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Blues/ Jets | 4-3 | 6-1 | 4-3 | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Wild/ Knights | 4-2 | 6-0 | 2-4 | 5-1 | 4-2 |
| Kings/ Oilers | 2-4 | 2-4 | 5-1 | 5-1 | 5-1 |
| Series – Round 2 | 1st Period BTTS | 1st Period Over/Under | 2nd Period Over/Under | 3rd Period Over/Under | Full Game Over/Under |
| Florida/ Toronto | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Carolina/ Washington | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Edmonton/ Vegas | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Dallas/ Winnipeg | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
• Teams who lost the previous game have scored a first period goal in the next game: 29-13
• Teams who lost the previous game have scored the first goal of the next game: 28-14
• Teams who lost the previous game scored the first goal of the first period in the next game: 23-19
• Home Teams are 35-19 overall, 3-4 in Round Two
• Favorites are 31-23 overall,1-6 in Round Two
• 34 of the 54 games have been decided by two or more goals, but only two of the five second round games have been decided by two or more goals
• Only 19 of the 31 wins by the favorite have been by two or more goals, and none in Round Two
• 15 of the 23 wins by the underdog have been by two or more goals, but 2-4 in Round Two
| Teams | Total number of players with goals | Total number of players with points |
| St. Louis | 16 | 20 |
| Edmonton | 15 | 18 |
| Vegas | 13 | 18 |
| Florida | 12 | 16 |
| Colorado | 12 | 17 |
| Winnipeg | 11 | 20 |
| Toronto | 11 | 18 |
| Carolina | 11 | 16 |
| Los Angeles | 11 | 16 |
| Ottawa | 11 | 14 |
| Washington | 10 | 18 |
| Dallas | 10 | 17 |
| Tampa | 8 | 15 |
| Montreal | 7 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 7 | 15 |
| New Jersey | 6 | 11 |
