NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Saturday, April 19:
Here are Saturday’s NHL predictions for the opening round’s first games:
St. Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets
Series Price:
Winnipeg Jets -225
St. Louis Blues +184
Game One odds: Jets -185, 5.5
The Winnipeg Jets have led the league in points virtually from start to finish. The Jets won their first eight games and fifteen of sixteen to start the season, cruising to not only the top spot in the Central Division but also the winners of the Presidents’ Trophy. Winnipeg won three of the four meetings this season against St. Louis, and they have a combined record of 15-9 against the seven other Western Conference playoff teams. But the regular season success won’t matter to the Jets and their fans if they can’t win when it matters most – in the playoffs. Winnipeg has had back-to-back seasons of first round playoff exits, each time winning Game One of the series before dropping the next four games.
Two intriguing storylines for this series immediately come to mind. First off, it’s a rematch of the goaltenders that led the USA and Canada at the 4 Nations Tournament, with Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg and Team USA) and Jordan Binnington (St. Louis and Team Canada). Each goalie owned a victory over the other, but Binnington’s victory came in the all-important championship game to secure the win for Team Canada. It will also be a battle of the Schenn brothers, with Luke for Winnipeg and Brayden for St. Louis. It will be the first time that they have faced off against each other in the postseason.
The Jets boast the NHL’s fourth-best offense with 12 players scoring 10 goals or more, though they will be without Nikolaj Ehlers and his 24 goals to start the playoffs. The status of Gabe Vilardi (upper body) and his 27 goals remains uncertain for game one. Vilardi was second on the team with 11 power play goals, just one fewer than Mark Scheifele. Scheifele’s 21 playoff goals are the most by any Winnipeg Jet in franchise history.
Kyle Connor, who led the Jets this season in goals (41) and points (97), has six goals and 10 points in the last eight Jets home playoff games. Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck owns every Jets playoff win in franchise history. Cole Perfetti led the Jets in scoring this season against the Blues with five points (all assists).
The St. Louis Blues enter the playoffs with a league-best record of 19-4-3 since play resumed from the 4 Nations tournament. Included in that run was a 12-game winning streak. It was an impressive turnaround for the Blues, who were eight points back of the second wild card spot when they headed into the break for the 4 Nations Tournament. For the Blues to stay competitive in this series, they are going to have to stay out of the box. The Jets had the number one power play in the regular season (28.9%), and the Blues finished with the 28th-ranked penalty kill. That being said, St. Louis did do a good job of holding the Jets’ power play in check during the regular season, giving up just one goal in the seven times they were a man short.
Jordan Kyrou led the Blues in the regular season with 36 goals. Robert Thomas, who closed the regular season on a 12-game point streak (four goals, 25 points), led the team with 81 points. Thomas paced the Blues with three goals and seven points this season against Winnipeg. The Blues will be without Dylan Holloway (lower-body injury), second on the team with 26 goals. St. Louis head coach Jim Montgomery said that Holloway, who is listed as week-to-week, is not close to returning.
Game One NHL Predictions:
St. Louis Blues ML +184 – .25 units
Robert Thomas Over 1.5 assists +350 – .25 units
Cole Perfetti Over ½ assist +195 – .25 units
Series Predictions:
St. Louis Blues to win the series +185 – .10 units
Series to go six games: +200 – .25 units
Series to go seven games +200 – .25 units
Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche
Series Price:
Colorado Avalanche -170Â
Dallas Stars +140
Game 1 odds: Colorado -135, 5.5
The Dallas Stars already without their best defenseman, Miro Heiskanen (missed the final 32 games of the regular season) for the opening round due to a lower-body injury, on Friday announced that second leading scorer Jason Robertson (35 goals, 80 points) is out week-to-week after suffering a lower-body injury in the final regular season game on Wednesday at Nashville.
The Stars, who finished second in the Central Division, have gone from a small series favorite (-120) to a +140 underdog. The Stars come into the playoffs having lost seven straight and given up a combined 34 goals in the seven losses. The loss of Robertson is easier for the Stars to overcome with their forward depth. This is a great opportunity for former Avalanche player Mikko Rantanen to step up in Robertson’s absence.
Here is an interesting statistic courtesy of the NHL. Rantanen will become the fourth player in the past 30 years to face a team in the playoffs with whom he had tallied 100-plus career playoff points. For his career, he has 34 goals and 101 points in 81 career playoff games. Look for Rantanen to be on a line with Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn. Johnston’s 10 playoff goals last season led all Dallas players.
One bit of good news for Dallas on the injury front was the return of Tyler Seguin, who has been out since December 1 following hip surgery. Seguin will be back with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene. The trio was the Stars’ best line before Seguin was injured on December 1. With the injuries to Heiskanen and Robertson, goalie Jake Oettinger is going to need to be the best or second-best player in this series for Dallas. Oettinger has made 45 consecutive playoff starts for Dallas.
The Colorado Avalanche rebuilt their team on the fly this season. It started with a complete overhaul between the pipes, trading goalies Alexander Georgiev and Justus Annunen and bringing in Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood. The Avs are the third team in NHL history to use six different goalies in the same season and make the playoffs. But it didn’t stop there. On trade deadline day, Colorado added centers Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle and Jack Drury. Nelson was arguably the most sought-after center at the deadline. Then they bolstered their blueline, bringing back veteran Erik Johnson, who won the Stanley Cup with the Avalanche in 2022, and Ryan Lindgren from the Rangers.
Nathan MacKinnon’s 1.30 points per game in the playoffs (fifth best in playoff history) and Cale Makar’s 1.11 points per game (second among blueliners in playoff history) lead the Avalanche’s attack from both the front and back end. But don’t sleep on Val Nichushkin. His nine goals in eight playoff games last season led the team before he was suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy for the second consecutive year. The team welcomed him back, and he scored 21 goals in 43 games, putting him on pace for what would have been a team-leading 40 goals over an 82-game season.
Game 1 NHL Predictions:
Colorado Avalanche Team Total Over 3.5 +134Â -1 unit
Val Nichushkin anytime goal +230 – .25 units
Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 SOG (-120) – .25 units
Series Predictions:
Colorado Avalanche to win in five games +460 – .50 units
Colorado Avalanche win in six games +380 – .50 units
Val Nichushkin 3+ goals (-110) – .50 units
