Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers (-125, 6.5)
Series tied 2-2
8 p.m. ET
I didn’t play a single minute in Game Four of the Stanley Cup Final, and yet I am still exhausted after the Oilers miraculous 5-4 Overtime win. Edmonton became the first team in over 100 years to win a road game in the Cup Final after trailing by three goals. It was just the second time in their last 23 playoff games that the Panthers lost a game when leading after the first period. (Both losses coming to the Oilers in this year’s Cup Final.)
Seven of the last nine meetings between the two teams have had seven or more goals. Game Four was also the 100th Overtime game in Stanley Cup Playoff history. Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl (+230) became the first player in Stanley Cup history to score four overtime goals in a single postseason and has now overtaken Connor McDavid (+270) as the betting favorite to win the Conn Smythe if the Oilers win the Stanley Cup. I don’t envision a scenario this time where a player from the losing team is named the Playoffs MVP.
The other big story from game four is the Oilers switch to Calvin Pickard in goal after Stuart Skinner was touched for three goals in the opening 20 minutes of Game Four. Edmonton once again got themselves into early penalty trouble, leading to a pair of Florida power play goals (one of them a five-on-three) by Matthew Tkachuk and a goal in the final minute by Anton Lundell.
If not for Skinner’s play, this game could have been 5-0 after the first period. The move to Skinner was both a mercy pulling by head coach Kris Knoblauch, as well as trying to get his team refocused. Knoblauch once again pushed the right buttons as the Oilers would score four unanswered goals, only to have the Panthers tie the game with 20 seconds left in regulation before the Draisaitl overtime winner.
With the win, Calvin Pickard improved his record to 7-0 in this year’s postseason. One other note from Game Four was that Edmonton’s first four goals (Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse, Podkolzin and Walman) of the game were all scored by players who had yet to find the back of the net in the Cup Final. Both the Oilers and Panthers have had 10 different players score a goal in the Final.
Now, to my best bets for Game Five. The books are tired of getting hammered by bettors on Evan Bouchard’s shots on goal prop (Over 2.5) and are making you pay a heavy tax (-235). After going three straight games with seven or more shots on goal, Bouchard had only three hit the target in game four and had five others either miss the net or were blocked (one being a breakaway where he shot wide). I still like Bouchard to register four or more shots in Game Five.
Corey Perry has had two or more shots on goal in six games. Mattias Ekholm has had two or more blocked shots in 10 of his last 11 games. Edmonton’s Connor McDavid has been able to take advantage of the fast Edmonton ice and better matchups at home with the Oilers having the last line change. As a result, his shots on goal numbers at home (7,4,3,2,5,5,5,7,4) are far better than they are on the road.
Florida’s Sam Bennett, who was just a crossbar away in overtime from giving the Panthers a commanding three games to one lead in the series, has scored 12 of his 14 goals on the road. He is being offered at a juicy (+210) at Bet365. Brad Marchand’s 14 road points are second on the team.
Game Five Predictions:
Mattias Ekholm Over 1.5 blocked shots (-155) – 1 unit
Evan Bouchard Over 3.5 shots on goal (+115) – .50 units
Connor McDavid Over 4.5 shots on goal (+210) – .50 units
McDavid/Bouchard Over 2.5 shots on goal parlay (-104) – 1 unit
Corey Perry Over 1.5 shots on goal (-110) -.50 units
Sam Bennett anytime goal (+210) – .20 units
Brad Marchand Over ½ point (+104) – .20 units
