NHL Predictions – Saturday, November 23:
With Thanksgiving just five days away, the NHL has loaded up the schedule with two 15-game days before the holiday break starting today. While there are some marquee matchups with the Stars and Lightning, Devils and Capitals, and the Rangers at Edmonton to close out the day, I have targeted seven games where I feel there is better value along with some very profitable betting trends. Enjoy the day on ice. Here are today’s NHL predictions.
Seattle Kraken at Los Angeles Kings (-165; 5.5)
4:00 p.m. ET
The Seattle Kraken come to Crypto.com as winners of five of their last six games and begin a stretch of five consecutive games against the California teams (LA, Anaheim-2, San Jose-2). Seattle has struggled on the road this season, with just three wins in eight games. The Kraken are 1-5 as a road dog but 2-0 as a road favorite.
The LA Kings have lost four of their past six games, and most recently, on Wednesday, they were blanked 1-0 by the Buffalo Sabres. That shutout loss triggers our first-period systems plays. Let’s hope that we get two first-period goals, and then both offenses quiet down for the final 40 minutes. These two teams have trended to the Under for most of the season. The Kraken have gone under in four straight games and 12 of their 20 for the season. The Kings have gone under in three of their last four contests and 10 of their 20 games this season. Five of the last seven meetings between the two teams have seen the teams combine for five goals or less.
NHL Predictions: Seattle Kraken/LA Kings Goal in the 1st 10 – Yes (-135) – 1 unit
Seattle Kraken/LA Kings 1st period over 1.5 (-115) – 1 unit
Seattle Kraken/LA Kings Under 5.5 (-115)
Carolina Hurricanes (-250; 6.5) at Columbus Blue Jackets
7:00 p.m. ET
The Carolina Hurricanes have been vulnerable on the road this season, with four of their five losses coming away from the Lenovo Center, including their most recent setback, a 4-2 loss in New Jersey. But tonight’s opposition, the Columbus Blue Jackets, are a team that the Canes have dominated over the years. The Hurricanes have won seven of the last 10 matchups and given up two goals or less in six of the last eight versus Columbus.
The Jackets have scored two goals or less in seven of their last 10 games. For their part, Carolina have given up two goals or less in 14 of their 19 games. The Canes are 6-3 as the road betting favorite and 5-1 as a (-200+) favorite overall to start the season. The Hurricanes have yet to lose back-to-back games this season.
The Blue Jackets are coming off a wild 7-6 overtime win at home over Tampa making readers of this column a winner as I gave out Columbus as one of three “barking dogs” on Thursday. The Jackets are 6-3 this season as the home underdog as compared to 2-6 as a road dog. Columbus benefited early on as their first four wins at home in the underdog role had them facing teams on the back end of a back-to-back. Win number five came against a terrible Penguins team, and in Thursday’s win over Tampa, they faced backup goalie Jonas Johansson. Two of the Jackets’ three losses as a home underdog have come against the Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild, who have the top two records in the NHL. Carolina ranks third. The other loss came against the ninth-ranked Florida Panthers.
Carolina has scored four or more goals in 13 of their 14 wins. Columbus has given up four or more goals in eight of their 11 losses.
NHL Prediction: Carolina TT over 3.5 (-145) – 1 unit
Columbus TT under 2.5 (-135) – 1.5 units
Carolina in Regulation (-150) – 2 units
Vegas Golden Knights (-165; 6.5) at Montreal Canadiens
7:00 p.m. ET
The Golden Knights are making stop number three on their five-game road trip as they visit the Bell Center in Montreal. The Knights have won six straight and seven of the last 10 over the Canadiens. Five of the ten meetings have gone past regulation. Montreal ranks 30th out of 32 teams in the standings and has won five of their seven games on home ice, including shutouts over both Toronto and Edmonton. The win over the Oilers gave the Habs three wins in their past four games.
Vegas has had their way with teams in the bottom half of the standings, winning eight of nine games against teams currently not in a playoff spot. But the road has been a struggle for the Knights to start the season. Their win on Thursday at Ottawa put them at NHL .500 (4-4-2), and it was just their fourth win in ten games away from T-Mobile Arena. Despite the overall struggles on the road, I am on the Golden Knights.
NHL Predictions: Vegas Golden Knights ML (-165) – 1 unit
Regulation Draw (+320) – ¼ unit
Nick Roy 3+ SOG (+175) – ¼ unit
Utah HC at Pittsburgh Penguins (-135; 6.5)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Utah HC have been spiraling in the wrong direction losing 10 of their last 13 games, shut out four times, including their most recent game at Boston, 1-0. Since Utah is coming off a shutout in its previous game, this triggers our system plays of the first period total Over 1.5 goals (26-13 for the season) and a goal to be scored in the first 10 minutes of the game (28-11 for the season). This game opened with both teams at (-110), but the Utah HC is now a (-135) road favorite despite taking 45% bets and 38% money, indicating sharp money on the visitors. Utah is (1-1) this season as a road favorite, while the Penguins are 0-6 as a home underdog.
It’s been a brutal start to the season for the Penguins. Pittsburgh is 14th in the Eastern Conference standings and 26th overall. The Pens have just three wins in ten games in November and just one win in four games that were decided in overtime. Pittsburgh has now played seven games this season that have been settled in overtime or a shootout. Six of Utah’s 19 games have gone past 60 minutes this season.
NHL Predictions: Utah HC/Pittsburgh Penguins Goal 1st 10 – Yes (-160) – 1 unit
Utah HC/Pittsburgh Penguins 1st period over 1.5 (-145) – 1 unit
Utah ML (-135) – 1 unit
Regulation Draw (+320) – ¼ unit
Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators (-125; 6)
7:00 p.m. ET
The Jets will be playing the second half of a back-to-back tonight when they visit Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Eric Comrie will be in the starter’s net for Winnipeg as Connor Hellebuyck got the start and win on Friday in Pittsburgh. Comrie is 3-1 on the season and coming off a 4-1 loss against the Lightning in Tampa. In three of Comrie’s four starts this season the opposition has scored at least three goals. All three Jets losses this season have come with Winnipeg as the betting underdog.
Nashville returns home after losing four of five on the road. The Predators are last overall in the standings with just six wins in 20 games. Their win earlier in the season over Colorado was their only victory against a team that is currently in a playoff spot. Despite Nashville having a record of (6-11-3) and Winnipeg (17-3-0), the hometown Predators are the (-125) favorite. The line opened at (-110) both sides, but it moved toward Nashville when it was learned that the Jets’ number one goalie, Connor Hellebuyck, would not be starting on Saturday.
It is not the greatest spot for Winnipeg on the back end of a back-to-back, and they could be looking ahead to their next opponent, the Minnesota Wild. What is surprising about the line move, even with everything that I have laid out for why it has moved in the direction of Nashville, the Predators are only receiving 22% of the bets and 26% of the money, according to our VSIN Betting Splits page. I will and you should continue to monitor the line on this game as it approaches game time. If Nashville holds as the favorite, I will consider a small wager on the Preds.
I feel more comfortable with the Predators going over their team total of 2.5 goals. We also have one of our systems plays in effect as Nashville was blanked 3-0 by Seattle in their previous game.
NHL Predictions: Winnipeg Jets/Nashville Predators goal 1st 10 – Yes (-160) – 1 unit
Winnipeg Jets/Nashville Predators 1st period over 1.5 (-130) – 1unit
Nashville Predators TT over 2.5 (-170) – 1unit
Nashville Predators ML (-125) – ¼ unit
St. Louis Blues at New York Islanders (-165; 5.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
When it comes to games involving the NY Islanders, it’s all about playing the Regulation Draw. Of the Islanders’ 20 games this season, eight have gone past 60 minutes. That puts them on pace to surpass last season’s 26 overtime/shootout games.
If you bet to win one hundred dollars on every Islanders game this season when they were a favorite and wagered one hundred dollars on games when they were an underdog, you would be down 13.3 units. Conversely, if you wagered that same one hundred dollars on every Islanders game to end in a regulation draw, you would be up 13 units.
The St. Louis Blues are coming off an overtime win over the San Jose Sharks on Thursday, one of five Blues games that needed extra time this season. This is the second meeting between the two teams, and the first contest ended 1-0 overtime. Four of the last 10 contests between the two teams have needed to be settled in three-on-three fashion.
NHL Prediction: Regulation Draw (+310) – ¼ unit
Buffalo Sabres (-155; 6) at San Jose Sharks
8:00 p.m ET
The Sabres enter San Jose after taking the first two games of their three-game California road trip. Last night in Anaheim, Buffalo outlasted the Ducks, 3-2 in overtime. Not only are the Sabres playing the second half of a back-to-back, but it’s their third game in four days. Granted with all three games in the state of California, travel has been minimal, but Buffalo did have to grind out the two victories versus Los Angeles and Anaheim along the way.
Take note of the earlier start time of 5 p.m. local time. That’s two to two and half hours earlier than games usually start in San Jose, and with the Sabres game ending around 10 p.m. PT last night, we may see some tired legs. Buffalo has also struggled in back-to-back situations this season. Last night in Anaheim was the Sabres’ first win in six tries combined when they have games on consecutive days.
Yes, the Sharks have just six wins in sixteen games to start the season and rank 29th overall in league standings, but after losing their first nine games of the season, San Jose has bounced back, having won six of their last 13 games.
The Sabres have gotten the better of the Sharks in recent years, winning four straight and seven of the last 10 meetings, but as NHL predictions go, I feel this is a bad spot for Buffalo. Look for James Reimer to make his Sabres debut in goal tonight.
NHL Predictions: San Jose Sharks in Regulation (+190) – 1 unit
Macklin Celebrini 3+ SOG (-140) – 1 unit
Macklin Celebrini anytime goal (+195) – ½ unit
