NHL Predictions – Sunday, October 13:
It has been a very unpredictable start to the 2024-25 NHL season with favorites just 18-16. When you take a bit of a deeper dive inside the numbers, betting favorites (-175+) are 7-7 (-9.7 units). Saturday, the underdogs were 6-6, highlighted by huge road wins by the Chicago Blackhawks (+280), the Columbus Blue Jackets (+260) and the Utah Hockey Club (+175). The Sunday card has two of the four favorites north of (-200).
Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets (-166, 6)
6 p.m. ET
There has been no love loss when these two cross-border rivals face off against each other. The past two seasons a Jets defenseman has injured Minnesota Wild superstar, Kirill Kaprizov. Last season it was a Brendan Dillion cross check that put Kaprizov on the injured list. Dillon though, is now a member of the New Jersey Devils. Two seasons ago it was Logan Stanley who is currently injured and not available for this game. It will be interesting to see if the Wild target one of the Jets top players to send a message. When Kaprizov has been able to avoid being a target of Jets players he has recorded 19 points in 11 games.
The Wild come into this contest having lost five straight to the Jets. Minnesota finds themselves in the unenviable situation of not only having to play on back-to-back days, but also three games in four nights. With Marc-Andre Fleury getting the start on Saturday, a 6-5 shootout loss to the Seattle Kraken, expect Filp Gustavsson to be between the pipes versus the Jets. Gustavsson has a 4-1 lifetime mark versus Winnipeg with a 1.71 GAA and a .943 save percentage.
The Jets are coming off a 2-1 overtime win on Friday at Chicago. Mark Scheifele scored the tying goal with just over a minute to play and then scored the game winner just 38 seconds into the extra session to complete the comeback.
Winnipeg’s Nino Niederreiter has scored six goals in 13 games versus the Wild and three goals in two games against Minnesota starting goalie Filip Gustavssson.
A couple of other betting notes for this game courtesy of our Betting Splits page. Minnesota is getting only 26% of bets but 58% of the money, yet we are seeing the line move in favor of Winnipeg. The Over six goals is taking in 54% of the bets, but just 29% of the money. Only one time in the last seven meetings have these two teams combined for more than six goals.
Plays: Nino Niederreiter anytime goal +400 – 1/2 unit
Jets/Wild under 6 (-120) – 1 unit
Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars (-180, 6)
8 p.m. ET
Both the Seattle Kraken and Dallas Stars are on the back end of a back-to-back but for the Stars they have the advantage of both games being on home ice. Dallas has won seven of the last nine meetings between the two teams. Phillip Grubauer is expected to start in goal for Seattle and enters the game having lost seven straight decisions to the Stars. With Jake Oettinger shutting out the Islanders on Saturday, Casey DeSmith will make his Dallas Stars debut today. In DeSmith’s two career starts versus Seattle (as a member of the Pittsburgh Penguins) he is 1-1, giving up just three goals.
Dallas opened as a (-195) favorite, and we are seeing that line tick down to (-185). The underdog Kraken who have split their first two games are receiving just 21% of the bets but 38% of the money.
There are a couple of player props that intrigue me in this game. The Stars Matt Duchene has six goals in 9 career games against Seattle and four goals in eight games against Kraken goalie, Phillip Grubauer. Roope Hintz has 5 goals in 9 games versus Seattle with four of those goals against Grubauer. Tyler Seguin, who has scored two goals this season on his only two shots on goal has averaged over 3.5 shots on goal per game when facing Grubauer.
One player from Seattle that intrigues me is Oliver Bjorkstrand. He has had four shots on goal in each of Kraken’s two games.
Plays: Matt Duchene anytime goal +300 – ½ unit
Roope Hintz anytime goal +200 – ½ unit
Tyler Seguin over 2.5 SOG +110 – 1 unit
Oliver Bjorkstrand over 2.5 SOG +145 – 1 unit
Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights (-298, 6.5)
10 p.m. ET
The Vegas Golden Knights are rolling to start the season with a pair of wins, having scored 12 goals in two games. Their top line of Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev has accounted for 6 goals and 17 points.
Tonight, Vegas hosts the Anaheim Ducks fresh off blanking the Sharks 2-0 in San Jose. T-Mobile arena has been a house of horrors for the visiting Ducks. Anaheim has lost 13 of the 16 trips to Sin City and tonight they face Vegas on the back end of a back-to-back. Anaheim is just 3-18 over the past two seasons when playing the second half of the back to backs. They have lost 15 of the 18 by two or more goals while surrendering at least 4 goals in 12 of their 18 losses. In their 13 setbacks at T-Mobile Arena, Vegas has scored four goals or more, 10 times.
With Vegas being close to or even at some spots a -300 favorite, I will attack some of the prop markets when approaching this game. Shea Theodore has 19 career points and 14 points in his last 14 games versus his former team. There is also good value on Victor Olofsson who has a pair of goals to start the season and who is part of the Knights top powerplay unit. Olofsson has three goals in his five career games versus Anaheim.
Plays: Shea Theodore over ½ point (-125) – ½ unit
Victor Olofsson anytime goal +245 – ½ unit
Vegas first to 4 goals (-115) – 1 unit
