NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Thursday, March 20:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions:
Colorado Avalanche (-125, 5.5) at Ottawa Senators
7 p.m. ET
Colorado played last night in Toronto, dropping a 2-1 game to the Maple Leafs. Now, they make the short flight to Canada’s capital to face the Senators. The last seven meetings between the two teams have flown over the total (9,11,10,9,7,11,12). Six of the Avs nine games on the second half of back-to-backs have had a combined six goals or more. Ottawa has gone Over the full game total in three of their last four and 14 of their last 17 games. I will pass on playing either side but will play the Over 5.5 and a slew of player props with my expectations of a high-scoring game.
NHL Predictions: Over 5.5 (-140) – 1.5 units
Val Nichushkin anytime goal (+200) – ¼ unit
Brock Nelson anytime goal (+320) – ¼ unit
Martin Necas Over ½ assist (+106) – ¼ unit
Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal (+140) – ¼ unit
Claude Giroux Over ½ point (+116) – ¼ unit
Dylan Cozens Over ½ point (+106) – ¼ unit
Ridly Greig anytime goal (+430) – ¼ unit
Shane Pinto anytime goal (+380) – ¼ unit
Toronto Maple Leafs at NY Rangers (-130, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
Toronto is coming off an impressive 2-1 win on Wednesday on home ice against the Colorado Avalanche. They get right back at it tonight at MSG against a Rangers team that has scored just two goals in their last two games. Tuesday, the Blueshirts generated just 13 shots on goal in their loss to a Flames team that was on the second half of a back-to-back. Tonight, they get a Maple Leafs team in that same spot, having played last night. I am anticipating a far better effort tonight from the home team. With Joseph Woll starting for Toronto on Wednesday, it should be Anthony Stolarz in goal for the Leafs and the Rangers to counter with Igor Shesterkin. Toronto’s Auston Matthews has regained his scoring touch with four goals in the last three games. Yes, he did have a little help last night as his shot toward the net deflected off Avs defenseman Devon Toews, but they all count. When Matthews gets on a heater, I am inclined to ride the run. Matthews scored seven goals in 11 games versus New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin. Bobby McMann and Nic Robertson are two of six Maple Leafs players with double-digit road goals. Ten of Robertson’s 12 goals this season have come on the road.
A couple of Rangers props on my card for tonight: a Mika Zibanejad anytime goal. Zibanejad has four goals in the six games he has faced Leafs netminder Anthony Stolarz (one this season), and Will Cuylle plays on the top line and second powerplay unit. His Over half a point prop is at plus money.
As scary as it sounds, I do like this spot for the Rangers. Toronto is coming off a big win against one of the top teams in the league who beat them 10 days prior. The Rangers are a pissed-off bunch and a point out of a playoff spot. I would expect one of their better efforts of the season tonight. I also feel like the regulation draw is live in this game tonight.
NHL Predictions: Rangers ML (-130) – ½ unit
Regulation Draw (+320) – ¼ unit
Auston Matthews anytime goal (+120) – ¼ unit
Bobby McMann anytime goal (+430) – ¼ unit
Nic Robertson anytime goal (+600) – ¼ unit
Mika Zibanejad anytime goal (+220) – ¼ unit
Will Cuylle Over ½ point (+134) – ¼ unit
Philadelphia Flyers at Washington Capitals (-250, 5.5)
7 p.m. ET
First and foremost, the Alexander Ovechkin watch continues as he remains eight goals shy of breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record (894 goals). He is on pace to break the record in the Capitals in game number 80 (April 13 vs. Columbus). The “Great 8” did not score on Tuesday versus Detroit and had just one shot on goal. Only once since play resumed from the 4 Nations tournament pause has Ovi gone back-to-back games without a goal. There is no question that opposing teams are doing their best to limit his shots that make it to the goalie. In three of the Capitals’ last six games, he has been held to one shot on goal or less. In his following two games after having the clamps put on him, he has had four and six shots on goal, respectively. For the season, Ovi has had four or more shots on goal in nine of the 12 games after being held to less than three shots on goal.
Ovechkin has scored goals in two of three games this season against the Flyers (one empty net) and has 51 goals in 77 career games versus their division rivals. Washington’s Connor McMichael leads the team in points (three goals, two assists) versus the Flyers this season. Flyers rookie and fellow Russian, Matvei Michkov has scored three goals against the Caps this season.
Not to be forgotten, the Flyers are once again coming off a shutout. In fact, they have been blanked in consecutive games. That once again triggers our system play, wagering on a goal to be scored in the opening 10 minutes of the game by either team. For the season, the system is 81-44. The Capitals have also been the best first period Over teams this season (44-24). They have gone 10-3 to the first period Over in their last 13 games.
NHL Predictions: Alex Ovechkin anytime goal (+105) – ¼ unit
Alex Ovechkin 3rd period goal (+290) – ¼ unit
Alex Ovechkin last goal (+650) – ¼ unit
Goal in 1st 10 minutes/Yes (-150) – 1 unit
1st period Over 1.5 goals (-120) – 1 unit
Matvei Michkov anytime goal (+290) – ¼ unit
John Carlson Over ½ assist (+120) – ¼ unit
Connor McMichael anytime goal (+260) – ¼ unit
Connor McMichael Over ½ assist (+210) – ¼ unit
Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights (-295, 5.5)
10 p.m. ET
The Golden Knights return from an East Coast road trip that ended in a couple of disappointing losses. Last Saturday, it was a 4-3 shootout loss to Buffalo. On Sunday, the Golden Knights looked like a tired bunch, losing 3-0 at Detroit. With Vegas being blanked in their previous game, we have our system play in effect at T-Mobile Arena tonight. What was interesting in the loss to Detroit was the in-game interview Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy did with Jody Shelley from TNT, saying his team looked tired. Cassidy wasn’t making excuses for his team; he was just stating facts—a pair of 9:30 am PT starts for Vegas on the East Coast, and the coach had the pulse of his team. Now they get back to business after a few days off to recharge and in comes Cassidy’s former team, the Boston Bruins. This is the second meeting of the season between the two teams, Vegas rallying from 3-2 down in the third period and beating Boston 4-3. Based on Wednesday’s Vegas practice, William Karlsson will return from injury tonight and be reunited with Reilly Smith and Nick Roy on his right side. Karlsson has been out since late January with a lower-body injury.
Though I do like Vegas to win the game tonight, Boston has won four of the last five at T-Mobile. Adin Hill, who gets the start tonight, is 0-3 with a goals against average of 5.05 lifetime against the Bs. Boston has dropped three straight overall and given up six goals in two of three games. I could be persuaded to play the Vegas Team Total of Over 3.5. Stay tuned, nothing for now.
There are some player props I do like. Mark Stone has 24 points in 24 games against the Bruins and 24 points in 29 games overall at home this season. Ivan Barbashev is back on the top line with Stone and Eichel. His 14 goals at home is only second to Tomas Hertl (17).
One Bruins player on my card for today is Marat Khusnutdinov, who plays on the third line and second power play unit.
NHL Predictions: Goal 1st 10/Yes (-150) – 1 unit
Mark Stone Over ½ assist (+105) – ¼ unit
Tomas Hertl anytime goal (+180) – ¼ unit
William Karlsson anytime goal (+380) – ¼ unit
Ivan Barbashev anytime goal (+240) – ¼ unit
Marat Khusnutdinov anytime goal (+850) – ¼ unit
