UFC Vegas 119 Predictions:
After Sunday’s Freedom 250 card at the White House, we return to the modest Meta APEX facility in Las Vegas for this week’s competition. Twelve fights populate this slate with talent that ranges from debuting journeymen to talented flyweights in a title eliminator.
APEX productions mean smaller bodies waging war, as evidenced by the fact that only two of the 12 take place at welterweight (170 pounds) and above. Also, only three of these bouts have lines with the favorite under a -200 chalk.
Last week, this column dropped 1 unit with my Stevie Garcia straight wager, but the win/win parlay scenario discussed on VSiN by the Books, as well as on several VSiN shows last week, won and netted 1.70u.
Digital results to Date: 10-12-1 -2.75u
Manel Kape -155 vs. Kyoji Horiguchi +155
Flyweight (125 pounds) main event
This fight is a rematch of a 2017 fight won by the then-more mature 26-year-old Horiguchi, who submitted the 23-year-old neophyte striker in the third round.
Kape was young, green, and learning, while Horiguchi was three years older but evolutionally ahead of Kape when it came to MMA intelligence, weaponry, and tactics.
Now the tables turn. Horiguchi, a decorated A-Class Shootist with a 2nd degree black belt in Shotokan Karate, returns to take on this old rival as a rejuvenated 35-year-old.
Horiguchi, fifth-ranked in the division, held great experience advantage in that first fight. Now, Kape, 32 and in his prime fighting years, will own the advantages.
Youth, speed, power, athleticism, and arm length all provide the division’s second-ranked Kape edges against the Japanese fighter, while in this rematch, he gives away nothing in level of adversary faced or UFC experience.
This will be a competitive fight for a couple of rounds until the unorthodox striking acumen and freakish athleticism of Kape begin to expose the proud Japanese warrior, who I believe will struggle to close the distance on a fighter in Manel Kape, who is the division’s most dangerous fighter.
UFC Vegas 119 Best Bet: Manel Kape -155
Total in this fight: 4.5 Rds. Over -135
Christian Rodriguez -170 vs. Hyder Amil +150
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Unranked but talented featherweights scrap in this fine matchup of fighting styles.
CRod hit the UFC quickly, realizing a 4-1 record out of the gate. However, once the organization stepped up his level of competition, CRod struggled, going 1-3 in his last four bouts. Those fights were all against mid-level unranked opponents, save for his last two fights, both losses against talent ranked just outside the division’s top eight.
CRod is athletic, has great footwork, and is equipped in boxing and wrestling, but his power is non-apparent, and he can seem to fade as his bouts transpire.
In Hyder Amil, we have a pint-sized power puncher.
Unusually, Amil will be the taller athlete in the cage Saturday, and he’ll immediately look to engage CRod and force him against the cage, where the battering is best. Amil will not try to wrestle or grapple, but he will try to injure and maim with his strikes and kicks.
CRod’s youth advantage is real in this fight. He is eight years younger in this one and will look to use his wrestling chops to gain the upper hand.
Amil returns from some form of injury/malady that affected him in his last couple of fights, both losses to very competent UFC talent, and he has vowed to make this fight look much different than his last two.
It’s my opinion that the pricing on this fight is based on CRod’s last couple of off performances and against what I regard as more stringent competition than Amil has faced.
That stated, Amil’s pressure, his power, and his bounce post injury may be just the combination he needs to enter this fight and get his hand raised against a fighter in Rodriguez that will struggle to maintain equilibrium on the feet and will try to turn this into a wrestling match.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Over -175
Vinicius Oliveira -245 vs. Andre Fili +210
Featherweight (145 pounds)
Fili is a decade-long UFC talent who holds a 13-12-1 record in the organization.
At 35, many think Fili to be past his prime. However, based on the performance he put on in his last fight, I would have to say that Fili’s talent and fight game are not waning, and in fact, I find him to be most dangerous in this spot.
He’ll be the more experienced fighter, as well as one who is comfortable vying with fighters weighing up to 160 pounds come fight night, as most featherweights do.
Fili’s experience, who he has been in against, and his well-rounded fight arsenal are more than enough to protect a chin that has been compromised over the course of his duration the UFC.
In Brazil’s Oliveira, we have a basic bully. He’s wildly athletic, but that does not translate to precision striking and dedication to a plan. Rather, he is explosive but wild, and when challenged, like in his last fight, he can crumple under the pressure.
Oliveira is stepping up from 135-pound bantamweight into the larger featherweight division. Despite the difference in physique and athleticism, this has the perfect makings to be a great ‘welcome to the featherweight division’ greeting from Andre ‘Touchy’ Fili.
UFC Vegas 119 Best Bet: Andre Fili +210
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds Pick ’em
Fili Decision for those looking to maximize opportunity. That line is not yet posted.
Friday, the ‘Bout Business Podcast drops across all podcast platforms. We’re white hot after a huge night last week at UFC Freedom 250, so give a listen!
