NHL Predictions – Expert Picks on Tuesday, December 10:
It’s an 11-game NHL card tonight as Sheldon Keefe and the Devils take on the Maple Leafs for the second time this season. The Leafs cruised to a 4-2 win in October. The Kings visit the Islanders looking to avoid what six other teams have done — lose their next game after knocking off the Minnesota Wild. The night concludes in Vancouver with the Canucks welcoming back goalie Thatcher Demko. Enjoy the night on ice. Here are my NHL predictions.
Toronto Maple Leafs (-130, 6) at New Jersey Devils
7 p.m. ET
The Devils have a second chance to get head coach Sheldon Keefe a win against his former team when they host the Maple Leafs at the Prudential Center. Toronto erupted for three first-period goals in just over six minutes and never looked back in a 4-2 win in their first meeting in early October. After the game, I was getting texts from my friends who are Leafs fans asking me if the Devils “hate their coach.” It was all good fun, and I firmly believe the Devils will play tonight like it’s a “must win” game, but the Devils have struggled on home ice with just seven wins in 14 games.
A couple of trends come into play tonight that I have far greater confidence in than playing either side. The Devils are coming off a shutout loss for the fifth time this season, and teams coming off a shutout have cashed the first-period Over 1.5 goals in 32 of 50 games this season. New Jersey has gone Over the total in the first period in 11 of 14 home games. One other trend that has been a money maker after a shutout is a goal scored in the first 10 minutes of the game. That trend is 35-15 for the season, and New Jersey has cashed that prop play in all four games after getting blanked. The Devils’ Timo Meier has six goals in 12 games against Toronto goalie Anthony Stolarz.
NHL Predictions: Toronto Maple Leafs/New Jersey Devils Over 1.5 (-140) — 2 units
Toronto Maple Leafs/New Jersey Devils Goal in the first 10 mins (-160) — 2 units
Timo Meier anytime goal (+215) — ¼ unit
Colorado Avalanche (-165, 6.5) at Pittsburgh Penguins
7 p.m. ET
The Avalanche hope they have solved their goaltending issues by acquiring Mackenzie Blackwood from the Sharks for goalie Alexandar Georgiev in a four-player deal that also involved draft picks. The Avalanche have completely revamped their goalie tandem over the past 10 days, previously acquiring Scott Wedgewood from the Predators. Both Blackwood and Wedgwood are former Devils goalies and join another ex-Devil in Miles Wood, who is in his second season with the Avalanche.
Tonight will be the final stop for Colorado on its five-game road trip. The Avs have won back-to-back games, giving up just one goal, and look to make it four wins in five games on the trip. The Avalanche are a perfect 7-0 as a road favorite this season and have won all seven in regulation. The first-period Over 1.5 has also been very profitable over the past couple of weeks in Colorado games, going 14-3.
After losing 14 of 18 games, the Penguins have won five of their last six, including wins over the Maple Leafs and Panthers. Their recent success coincides with the fact that the Pens, who were 0-7 as a home underdog, have improved to 3-7, winning three straight in that role. I am still not fully buying the Penguins’ recent success. They were badly outshot in the Florida game, blowing a 4-1 third-period lead before winning in overtime. They knocked off a Canucks team with Arturs Silovs in goal, a Flames team that stinks on the road and a Maple Leafs team that was playing four games in six nights.
NHL Predictions: Colorado Avalanche in Regulation (-105) — 1 unit
Colorado Avalanche/Pittsburgh Penguins first-period Over 1.5 (-140) — 1 unit
Ross Colton anytime goal (+260) — ¼ unit
Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets (-115, 6.5)
7 p.m. ET
The Flyers visit Nationwide Arena looking to snap a three-game losing streak that includes squandering third-period leads to Boston and Florida in back-to-back games.
Rookie sensation Matvei Michkov is riding a four-game point streak (3 goals, 5 assists) and leads all rookies in scoring with 11 goals and 25 points. Seven of his 11 goals have come on the road.
Tonight will be the Jackets’ first home game after five straight on a trip that concluded Sunday with a 4-1 win over the Winnipeg Jets. Columbus is 4-1 in its last five home games. Seven of the Blue Jackets’ wins on home ice have been as the underdog. Nine of the last 12 games at home have featured two or more goals in the opening 20 minutes.
Overtime has been a common theme for these teams. Three of their seven meetings needed extra time. Five of the Flyers’ last eight games have been decided in overtime. Three of Columbus’ last four home games have gone past regulation.
NHL Predictions: Regulation Draw (+310) — ¼ unit
Philadelphia Flyers/Columbus Blue Jackets first-period Over 1.5 (-145) — 1 unit
Matvei Michkov anytime goal (+225) — ½ unit
Matvei Michkov over ½ assist (+145) — ½ unit
Los Angeles Kings (-130, 5.5) at New York Islanders
7:30 p.m ET
The Kings are taking their show on the road as they kick off a seven-game trip with a game against the Islanders. L.A. has won five straight and given up two or fewer goals in eight of their last nine games but has dropped three of its last four on the road (6-6-2 for the season). The Kings’ lone victory was a 2-1 win at Anaheim where they were outshot 31-18. Of L.A.’s six road victories, five are against teams with records below .500
The Kings have won five of their last six games versus the Islanders, but the teams have split the last four in New York. L.A. last played on Saturday, defeating the Minnesota Wild 4-1 at Crypto.com arena. The downside to the victory is that teams are 1-7 in their next game after a victory over Minnesota this season. One of the seven losses belongs to the Kings, who fell to Vancouver (Nov. 7) in their game after defeating the Wild.
The Islanders are coming off back-to-back wins over the Carolina Hurricanes and Ottawa Senators and have won consecutive games for just the second time this season. New York is seeking its first three-game winning streak of the season. New York’s best chance at a win is to limit the Kings to fewer than three goals. The Kings have won five of six games when scoring exactly three goals and 14-2 when scoring three or more goals. You could play the Kings’ team total Under 2.5 (+115) as another option, but the slightly better price than the Islanders’ money line is not enough for me.
NHL Predictions: New York Islanders ML (+110) — 1 unit
Regulation Draw (+295) — ¼ unit
Minnesota Wild at Utah HC (-110, 5.5)
9 p.m. ET
The Wild will look to avoid back-to-back losses for just the third time this season as they play for the first time at the Delta Center. They face a Utah team that is seeking its first three-game winning streak since opening the season with three in a row. From VSIN’s Josh Applebaum, NHL road favorites coming off a loss facing a team off a win are 20-7 this season, so advantage Minnesota. The Wild are also 6-2 this season after a loss. A concern for me in jumping on the road favorite is that Minnesota opened as a (-125) favorite and we are seeing a line move to the home team as the Wild are now down to (-110). Minnesota looks to be getting public support taking in 76% of the bets and 65% of the money and yet this line is moving to Utah.
I do have a couple of Minnesota prop plays. The Wild’s Matt Boldy has had at least four shots on goal in 11 of his last 16 games while his linemate, Marco Rossi who was held off the scoresheet in Minnesota’s loss at L.A. has gone without a point in consecutive games only once this season.
NHL Predictions: Matt Boldy Over 3.5 SOG (-120) — 1 unit
Marco Rossi Over ½ point (-130) — 1 unit
Utah HC (-110) — ½ unit
Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers (-155, 6.5)
9 p.m. ET
I can’t wait for puck drop tonight with Nikita Kucherov, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl all on display. The Lightning have won three of their last four games after a 4-2-win Sunday at Vancouver. The victory may have come at a price as defenseman Erik Cernak and forward Anthony Cirelli left the game with injuries and neither practiced on Monday. Their status is questionable, and I will update their availability later today on my Twitter (X) feed.
The Oilers are playing some of their best hockey of the season with five wins in their past six games, with the only loss being 1-0 to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Oilers have scored four or more goals in all five wins and have been led up front by their dynamic duo of McDavid and Draisaitl. McDavid has 12 points over the last six games and Draisaitl has eight (four multi-point games). Edmonton goalie Stuart Skinner hasn’t let the disappointment of being left off Canada’s team for the upcoming Four Nations Tournament bother him. Skinner has won three of his last four starts, posting a 1.52 GAA and a .945 save percentage.
NHL Predictions: Edmonton Oilers ML (-155) — 2 units
Tampa Bay Lightning/Edmonton Oilers first-period Over 1.5 (-160) — 1 unit
St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks (-170, 5.5)
10 p.m. ET
Barring last-minute complications, the Canucks will have Thatcher Demko between the pipes for the first time since Game 1 of the opening round of last season’s Stanley Cup playoffs. Demko, who has been rehabbing a lower-body injury, will face a St. Louis team that he has three wins against in seven career starts. For Vancouver, this is Game 3 of a six-game homestand and the Canucks have a win and loss in the first two. Home has not been so sweet for Vancouver with just four wins in 13 games at Rogers Arena. Compare that with 10 wins in 13 games on the road.
All four Canucks wins have come with them as the betting home favorite, a spot they find themselves in tonight. They opened as a -195 favorite and are getting 84% of bets but just 51% of the money (per our VSIN Betting Splits page) dropping this line to Vancouver (-170). It must have been my six-figure bet on the Blues (just kidding) that is responsible for the line move. St. Louis has won four of six games under new head coach Jim Montgomery. The Blues also have dominated the recent meetings, taking three of the last four and seven of the last 10 against the Canucks. Three of the last five have gone to overtime.
Some goal props offer great value. The Blues’ Dylan Holloway has been on a heater since Montgomery took over behind the bench with five goals and nine points. Sportsbooks have gotten wise to Holloway’s recent run, so his goal prop has dropped from (+500) to (+360). Vancouver’s Quinn Hughes has five goals in eight games against Blues starting goalie Jordan Binnington.
NHL Predictions: Dylan Holloway anytime goal (+360) — ¼ unit
Quinn Hughes anytime goal (+450) — ¼ unit
St. Louis Blues ML (+140) — 1 unit
Best of the rest:
Boston Bruins/Winnipeg Jets first-period Over 1.5 (-115) — 1 unit
Florida Panthers/Seattle Kraken first-period Over 1.5 (-125) — 1 unit
Jonathan Huberdeau anytime goal (+340) — ¼ unit
David Pastrnak anytime goal (+155) — ¼ unit
Vince Dunn Over ½ point (+100) — ½ unit
Brandon Montour Over ½ assist (+225) — ¼ unit
Brandon Montour anytime goal (+650) — ¼ unit
