Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers (-145, 6.5)
Florida leads series 3-2
8 p.m. ET
For the first time in the Stanley Cup Final, the Cup will be in the house with the Florida Panthers having the opportunity to raise Lord Stanley for the second consecutive season, and both times on home ice. The Panthers would join six other teams to win their first two Stanley Cups on home ice (last done by the LA Kings, 2012 and 2014).
Florida was surgical in their Game Five win (5-2) over Edmonton on Saturday night and has now scored two goals or more in the opening 20 minutes in all five games of the Cup Final. Six times in NHL history, teams have won Game Six on the road to force Game Seven. Four times, the team that forced a Game Seven went on to win the Cup. An Edmonton win in Game Six would make them the second team in NHL history to force a Game Seven in consecutive Stanley Cup Finals.
Florida has scored four or more goals in four of the five games against the Oilers in the Final. Brad Marchand leads the Panthers with six goals in the Final. Sam Bennett is second with five. Bennett also has a point in every game of the series. Leon Draisaitl leads all players with eight points. Expect Stuart Skinner to return to the starter’s net for Edmonton in Game Six. Calvin Pickard was solid in Game Five but not spectacular. I am anticipating the Oilers going to Skinner, who has had a great ability to bounce back after losing the crease. Skinner has won his last four Game Six starts, giving up just one goal in three of the four games. The Panthers are 3-2 in their last five Game Six appearances.
On to the best bets for Game Six. Both the first period Over (1.5 goals) and full game Over (6.5) are a perfect 5-0 in the Final. Corey Perry has had at least two shots on goal in all five games and three or more shots on goal in four of the five games. Evan Bouchard has been held to three shots on goal in each of the last two games after having seven or more in each of the first three games. Bouchard’s shot prop of Over 2.5 (-250) is way too pricey on its own, but I will parlay it with his Over 1.5 blocked shots that have hit in all five games of the Cup Final. Mattias Ekholm has cashed his blocked shots and shots on goal prop (both Over 1.5) in four of the five games in the Final.
Game Six Predictions:
Corey Perry Over 1.5 shots on goal (-140) – ½ unit
Corey Perry Over 2.5 shots on goal (+220) – ¼ unit
Evan Bouchard Over 1.5 blocks (-150) – ½ unit
Evan Bouchard Over 1.5 blocks/Over 2.5 shots on goal (+132) – ½ unit
Mattias Ekholm Over 1.5 blocks (-180) – ½ unit
Mattias Ekholm Over 1.5 shots on goal – ½ unit
Corey Perry anytime goal (+310) – .20 units
Corey Perry to score Oilers 1st goal of the game (10/1) – .10 units
Leon Draisaitl to score Oilers 1st road goal of the game (+400) – .10 units
Sam Bennett anytime goal (+180) – .20 units
Sam Bennett Over ½ assist (+196) – .20 units
Brad Marchand anytime goal (+230) – .20 units
Brad Marchand Over ½ assist (+210) – .20 units
1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-150) – .50 units
Florida Panthers -1.5 goals (+158) – .20 units
Florida Panthers empty-net goal (+250) -.10 units
Edmonton Oilers – 1.5 goals (+260) – .20 units
Edmonton Oilers empty-net goal (+400) – 10 units
