NHL Predictions – Tuesday, November 19:
They say it’s not how you start but how you finish. After getting beat up pretty good in the early games Monday night, we swept the board in the last game of the night as Macklin Celebrini and the Sharks cashed all three of our plays, including the regulation draw. We are now 3-for-3 on our regulation draw plays and we have one more for tonight, so let’s hope we can stay perfect.
Edmonton Oilers (-140; 6.5) at Ottawa Senators
7 p.m. ET
Both teams come to Ottawa on a two-game losing streak. The visiting Oilers were shut out 3-0 on Monday night in Montreal, scoring fewer than three goals in a game for the ninth time this season. However, Edmonton hasn’t had a problem scoring goals against the Senators. The Oilers have scored three goals or more in nine of the last 10 meetings and scored four or more goals six times. This is not only the second half of a back-to-back but the Oilers’ third game in four days. Edmonton has lost its previous three games in the second half of a back-to-back and has been outscored 13-2.
Like Edmonton, Ottawa was blanked in its previous game, losing 4-0 to Carolina. This will be the first NHL game this season pitting teams that did not score a goal in their last game.
What does this all mean from a betting perspective? Teams coming off a shutout have been a great bet this season to cash the first period Over 1.5 goals (23-11), a goal to be scored in the first 10 minutes of the game (25-9) as well as the game total going Over (20-12-2). The final piece of the system is when the first period total does not cash, then double down on the second period going over 1.5 goals. Nine of the 11 games featuring this scenario have gone Over the total.
The full game going Over the total is a bet that I am struggling with. The Oilers are 11-6-2 to the Under this season and have gone Under in two of the three games in the second half of a back-to-back. Ottawa is 6-9-2 this season to the Under, including three of their last four games finishing with a combined five goals or less.
This game opened with Edmonton as a -140 favorite, and we are seeing this line move toward Ottawa with the Oilers now a -120 road favorite. I am not surprised by the line move and did grab a piece of the Senators on Monday night at +120. Edmonton’s lack of depth on the blue line has been further complicated with the Darnell Nurse injury, which is something Ottawa can take advantage of tonight.
NHL Predictions: Edmonton Oilers/Ottawa Senators 1st period Over 1.5 goals (-135) – 1 unit
Edmonton/Ottawa goal 1st 10 Yes (-154) – 1 unit
Ottawa ML (+105) – 1 unit
Tampa Bay Lightning (-145; 6.5) at Pittsburgh Penguins
7 p.m. ET
The Lightning have begun to look like the team we have been accustomed to for the past decade. Tampa followed a 2-1 shootout loss to the Flyers on home ice with a pair of impressive wins over the Winnipeg Jets and New Jersey Devils, outscoring the two by a combined 8-1. The Bolts have scored four or more goals and covered the puck line in seven of their nine wins this season.
Tampa had lost four straight games before their current two-game winning streak and coach Jon Cooper had a simple explanation for why the Lighting were losing games. “I think the big issue with us was we were overcomplicating an uncomplicated game,” he said.” I think we’re a bottom-five team in the league for shots on goal. It’s been the extra pass, the extra play, there’s something better out there. It has kind of sucked the life out of us and what does it do? It fuels the other team.” Like all teams with a championship pedigree, the Lightning have corrected their problems.
The Penguins snapped a three-game losing streak on Saturday with a 4-3 shootout win over the San Jose Sharks in a game they led 3-0 five minutes into the second period. The Penguins have just one regulation win since Oct. 14 and just four regulation wins this season. Only San Jose with three has fewer regulation wins.
Tampa opened as a -145 road favorite and has been bet up to -155. The Penguins are 4-1 this season as a home favorite but 0-4 as a home underdog. Pittsburgh has also given up four or more goals in 12 of its 13 losses this season.
The Penguins have given up four or more goals in 12 of their 13 losses this season. One other interesting trend that popped up: Pittsburgh is 4-1 as a home favorite but 0-4 as the home dog.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning ML (-155) – 1 unit
Tampa Bay race to 4 goals (+180) – ½ unit
Florida Panthers at Winnipeg Jets
8 p.m. ET
It is Round 2 between the Panthers and Jets. Florida blanked Winnipeg 5-0 Saturday night on “Hockey Night in Canada” as the hometown Florida crowd chanted, “Overrated” at the Jets. Winnipeg has now lost back-to-back games for the first time this season, getting outscored 9-1. Now the scene shifts to Winnipeg, where Jets fans hope it’s their turn to lay a verbal assault on Florida. Jets fans have been very creative this season. When Dallas came to town, they chanted, “backup goalie” to the Stars’ Jake Oettinger. Oettinger and Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck will likely be the two goalies for Team USA at the 4 Nations tournament in February.
The first order of business when wagering on this game is we have a “live” system play in effect. This will be Winnipeg’s first game since being shut out by the Panthers on Saturday night. Teams coming off a game in which they have been blanked have seen the first period Over 1.5 cash in 23 of 34 games. The goal-in-first-10 minutes prop has also been a money-maker, going 25-9. If the first period Over 1.5 goals does not cash, then double down and play the second period Over 1.5. In the 11 games that have gone Under 1.5 in the first period, the Over has cashed nine times in the second period. The full game Over is 20-12-2 on the season.
NHL Predictions: Florida Panthers/Winnipeg Jets Goal 1st 10 Yes (-145) – 1 unit
Florida/Winnipeg 1st period Over 1.5 (-125) – 1 unit
Florida/Winnipeg Over 6 (-105) – 1 unit
Minnesota Wild (-145; 6) at St. Louis Blues
8 p.m. ET
This will be the second meeting between these Central Division rivals after the Wild earned a 4-1 victory on Oct. 15. The Wild have enjoyed success on the road to start the season, winning seven of 10 games and earning 16 of a possible 20 points. Minnesota is coming off a hard-fought 2-1 loss to the Dallas Stars and has lost consecutive games just once this season. The Wild have held the opposition to less than three goals in nine of their 11 wins this season. Kirill Kaprizov, who trails Nathan MacKinnon by just three points in the scoring race, is on a five-game point streak, scoring four goals and adding six assists. Kaprizov’s streak of eight multi-point games on the road ended in the Wild’s last road game at Chicago. He did record a pair of assists in the first meeting on Oct. 15. The Wild have covered the puck line in five of their last six wins this season.
The Blues have lost five of their past six games and have been held to two goals or fewer in four of those games and 10 of 19 overall.
NHL Predictions: Minnesota Wild -1.5 (+154) – 1 unit
St. Louis Blues TT Under 2.5 (-115) – 1 unit
Kirill Kaprizov over 1.5 points (+105) – 1 unit
Anaheim Ducks at Chicago Blackhawks (-185; 6.5)
8:30 p.m. ET
Anaheim is coming off a huge win Monday night at Dallas, cashing as a +350 road underdog and now faces a Blackhawks team that is last overall in the NHL. The oddsmakers and the betting community are not scared off by Chicago having the league’s worst record as they opened as a heavy (-175) home favorite and have been bet up to -185. Two factors immediately come to mind as to why there is all this love for Chicago. First, a letdown game for Anaheim after beating one of the league’s best teams on its home ice. Dallas had just one home loss in eight games before Monday night’s loss to Anaheim. Secondly, it’s the second half of a back-to-back for the Ducks, who have lost their previous two games in this spot, 3-1 and 6-2. Last season Anaheim was 2-8 on the back end of back-to-backs.
I also like the total Under 6.5 goals. These teams are a combined 20-10-4 to the Under this season. Seven of their last eight meetings have had six goals or fewer.
NHL Predictions: Chicago Blackhawks in Regulation (+100) – 1 unit
Anaheim/Chicago Under 6.5 (-120) – 1 unit
New York Islanders at Calgary Flames (-112; 5.5)
9 p.m. ET
There is no deep-dive analysis into this game between the Islanders and the Flames other than to say I like this game to go to overtime. The Islanders have had seven games go past 60 minutes this season, and the Flames have needed extra time to settle six of their games this season. Both teams have gone to overtime in three of their last six games. Oddsmakers are hot to this play with the regulation draw at the lowest number I have seen this season (+300). A typical line for a regulation draw is +330.
NHL Prediction: New York Islanders/Calgary Flames Regulation Draw (+300) – ¼ unit
