NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
The NHL season resumes tonight with 28 of the 32 teams in action. If last season is any indication, we could see many high-scoring games this evening. Last season, coming out of the 4 Nations Face-Off, 10 of the 14 games on the first day back had a combined six goals or more, and eight of those games had a combined seven or more goals. The home and road teams split the14 games. Dogs were barking on day one, with nine of the 14 games decided by two goals or more. Underdogs won nine of the fourteen games. Home dogs were 4-1. Utah, Vancouver and Anaheim are all home underdogs tonight. Below are my best bets on today’s eight-game slate. In the chart below, I have a breakdown of the best and worst teams when it comes to Puck Line wagers, as well as a team-by-team breakdown of which players lead their respective teams in scoring their team’s first goal of the game. Here are tonight’s NHL predictions.
Buffalo Sabres (32-19-6) at New Jersey Devils (28-27-2)
Buffalo Sabres (-110) at New Jersey Devils (-110) – Total 6 (Over, -120)
7 p.m. ET
The Sabres return to action sitting in the first wild card position in the Eastern Conference, just two points back of Montreal and Detroit for one of the top three seeds in the Atlantic Division. The Devils are 11 points out of a playoff spot, essentially playing out the remainder of the season and expected to be sellers as the trade deadline approaches on March 6.
As with all games tonight, there are questions about players’ availability after the Olympics. Those questions about this game were answered after each team’s morning practice. Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin are in for the Sabres, and though Jack Hughes did not skate this morning, New Jersey head coach Sheldon Keefe confirmed he will play tonight. Both teams stumbled into the Olympic break with the Sabres losing three of four and Jersey dropping five of six.
This will be the third meeting between the two teams this season, with the road team winning the previous two matchups. Give me Buffalo tonight, and I will take them on the Puck Line (-1.5 goals). The Sabres have covered the Puck Line in 25 of their 32 wins (78%) this season. They have the greatest percentage of Puck Line wins of any other NHL team this season. Meanwhile, of New Jersey’s 29 losses this season, 22 have been by two goals or more (76%). The Devils are tied with Florida for the greatest percentage of Puck Line losses this season.
Jacob Markstrom gets the start for New Jersey, and I expect it will be Alex Lyon for the Sabres. The Devils’ Paul Cotter has six goals in eight games against the Sabres, including a pair of goals against Alex Lyon. Betano Sportsbook in Canada is the only place that I have seen currently offering his assist prop (+420). Arseny Gritsyuk scored a pair of goals against Lyon earlier this season, and Nick Bjugstad has two goals in two games against Lyon.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Buffalo Sabres -1.5 goals (+225) – .50 units
Buffalo Sabres Money Line (-104) – 1 unit
Josh Norris anytime goal (+275) – .05 units
Josh Norris Over 1.5 shots on goal (+120) – .20 units
Josh Doan anytime goal (+290) – .05 units
Rasmus Dahlin Over ½ assist (-135) – .10 units
Paul Cotter anytime goal (+850) – .05 units
Arseny Grtitsyuk anytime goal (+475) – .05 units
Nick Bjugstad anytime goal (+700) – .05 units
Philadelphia Flyers (25-20-11) at Washington Capitals (29-23-7)
Philadelphia Flyers (+125) at Washington Capitals (-150) – Total 5.5 (-122)
7 p.m. ET
I am going to sprinkle on the road underdog Flyers, who already beat the Capitals earlier this season. A couple of player props for me. Going back with the Trevor Zegras/Travis Konecny point parlay. Zegras has eight points in six games against the Flyers. Owen Tippett has two goals in three games versus Caps starting goalie Logan Thompson, including the first goal of the game in their lone meeting this season. Tippett has opened the scoring for the Flyers eight times this season (second behind Konecny with nine).
I will be playing Tippett for the first Flyers goal, not the first goal of the game. Alexander Ovechkin has torched the Flyers throughout his career with 52 goals in 79 games (three goals in six games vs Dan Vladar). Anthony Beauvillier has two goals in two games versus Flyers starting goalie, Dan Vladar. Washington will be without Tom Wilson tonight.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Philadelphia Flyers (+125) – .15 units
Zegras/Konecny point parlay (+126) – .50 units
Alexander Ovechkin anytime goal (+140) – .20 units
Owen Tippett anytime goal (+290) – .10 units
Owen Tippett first Flyers goal (+800) – .05 units
Anthony Beauvillier anytime goal (+380) – .05 units
Colorado Avalanche (37-9-9) at Utah Mammoth (30-23-4)
Colorado Avalanche (-125) at Utah Mammoth (+105) – Total 5.5 (Over, -135)
9 p.m. ET
There is still some uncertainty about who is in and who is out for the Avalanche for tonight’s contest. Things are much clearer on the Utah side, where Logan Cooley will make his return to the lineup having been out since December 5 with a lower-body injury. Cooley will play on the line tonight with Dylan Guenther and Jack McBain.
Clayton Keller, who had limited ice time with Team USA at the Olympics, will suit up tonight and stay on the top line with Nick Schmaltz and Lawson Crouse. Guenther has had a great deal of success against Colorado, entering his fourth season in the NHL with four goals in seven games against the Avs. He has four goals in five games against Scott Wedgewood, including two this season, one of which opened the scoring for Utah. Guenther has scored Utah’s first goal seven times this season.
We are going back to the Mikhail Sergachev shots on goal prop. The Mammoth defenseman has had at least two shots on goal in all three games versus Colorado this season. I will likely add a couple of Colorado player props later today, following confirmation of who is playing and who is not. I think this is a flat spot for Colorado who had eight players at the Olympics. I am going to grab Utah to win the game and on the first period money line. The Avalanche have lost only 18 times this season, but 11 have come on the road. Tonight could also be a look-ahead game to Minnesota on Thursday.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Utah Mammoth Money Line (+105) – .50 units
Utah Mammoth 1st period Money Line (-102) – .50 units
Dylan Guenther anytime goal (+220) – .15 units
Dylan Guenther 1st Utah goal (+700) – .05 units
Nick Schmaltz anytime goal (+250) -.05 units
Nick Schmaltz 1st Utah goal (+750) – .05 units
Mikhail Sergachev Over 1.5 shots on goal (-122) – .50 units
Vegas Golden Knights (27-16-14) at Los Angeles Kings (23-19-14)
Golden Knights (+125) at LA Kings (-150) – Total 5.5 (-110)
10 p.m. ET
At first glance, I would be running to bet on the Golden Knights at this price, but then, when you learn that Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin are out and Mark Stone, Mitch Marner and Shea Theodore may also be given the night off (Vegas is at Anaheim tomorrow), it all makes sense. From the LA side, tonight will mark the debut of Artemi Panarin, who will play alongside Adrian Kempe and Alex Laferriere. Tuesday at practice, Panarin was also playing on both power play groups.
I can’t think of the last time I wagered on the Kings to win a game, but tonight will be one of those nights. I am not interested in laying (-150) but instead will grab the Puck Line. With a depleted Vegas lineup, I will isolate Pavel Dorofeyev props. Both his shots on goal and anytime goal props work for me. He has also scored the Knights’ first goal 10 times this season.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
LA Kings -1.5 goals (+180) – 1 unit
Artemi Panarin anytime goal (+160) – .10 units
Artemi Panarin Over 2.5 shots on goal (-155) – 1 unit
Artemi Panarin Over 3.5 shots on goal (+170) – .25 unitsPavel Dorofeyev anytime goal (+230) – .10 units
Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas 1st goal (+650) – .05 unitsPavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 shots on goal (-110) – 1 unit
Pavel Dorofeyev Over 3.5 shots on goal (+210) – .25 units
| Team | Puck Line W’s/Total Wins | % of Wins by Puck Line | Puck Line L’s/Total Losses | % of Losses by Puck Line | Teams’ 1st goal Leader/total number 1st goals |
| Anaheim | 14/30 | 47% | 19/26 | 73% | LaCombe (5), Gauthier (5), Sennecke (4), Carlsson (4) |
| Boston | 18/32 | 56% | 14/25 | 56% | Geekie (12) |
| Buffalo | 25/32 | 78% | 17/25 | 68% | Zucker (9), Doan (7) |
| Calgary | 14/23 | 61% | 22/33 | 67% | Sharongovich (7), Frost (6) |
| Carolina | 19/36 | 53% | 13/21 | 62% | Ehlers (7), Blake (6) |
| Chicago | 13/22 | 59% | 19/35 | 54% | Bertuzzi (12) |
| Colorado | 28/37 | 76% | 7/18 | 39% | MacKinnon (7), Necas (7), Lehkonen (7) |
| Columbus | 16/29 | 55% | 13/27 | 48% | Werenski 96), Coyle (6), Fantilli (5) |
| Dallas | 15/34 | 44% | 10/23 | 43% | Robertson (9), Johnston (7), Bourque (6) |
| Detroit | 16/33 | 48% | 17/25 | 68% | Larkin (9), DeBrincat (8), Raymond (7) |
| Edmonton | 18/28 | 64% | 14/30 | 47% | McDavid (9), Hyman (7), Draisaitl (7), RNH (7) |
| Florida | 13/29 | 45% | 22/28 | 76% | Marchand (10), Reinhart (7) |
| Los Angeles | 8/23 | 35% | 14/33 | 42% | Kempe (11) |
| Minnesota | 19/34 | 56% | 12/24 | 50% | Boldy (12) |
| Montreal | 17/32 | 53% | 12/25 | 48% | Caufield (8), Kapanen (6), Slafkovsky (6) |
| Nashville | 10/26 | 38% | 21/31 | 68% | O’Reilly (10), Forsberg (9) |
| New Jersey | 11/28 | 39% | 22/29 | 76% | Meier (8), Hischier (7) |
| NY Islanders | 13/32 | 41% | 16/26 | 62% | Horvat (8), Heinneman (7), DuClair (6) |
| New York Rangers | 12/22 | 55% | 21/35 | 60% | Zibanejad (14) |
| Ottawa | 15/28 | 54% | 13/29 | 45% | Batherson (8) |
| Philadelphia | 17/25 | 68% | 16/31 | 52% | Konecny (9), Tippett (8) |
| Pittsburgh | 21/29 | 72% | 9/27 | 33% | Crosby (10) |
| San Jose | 12/27 | 44% | 19/28 | 68% | Celebrini (8), W. Smith (8), Graf (6) |
| Seattle | 17/27 | 63% | 16/29 | 55% | Eberle (9) |
| St. Louis | 7/20 | 35% | 22/37 | 59% | Neighbours (7), Kyrou (5), Holloway (5) |
| Tampa | 25/37 | 68% | 7/18 | 39% | Hagel (9), Guentzel (7) |
| Toronto | 15/27 | 56% | 18/30 | 60% | Nylander (7), Matthews (5) |
| Utah | 18/30 | 60% | 13/27 | 48% | Schmaltz (8), Guenther (7), Peterka (6) |
| Vancouver | 7/18 | 39% | 25/39 | 64% | Linus Karlsson (6), Elias Pettersson (6) |
| Vegas | 15/27 | 56% | 9/30 | 30% | Dorofeyev (10), Eichel (8) |
| Washington | 21/29 | 72% | 16/30 | 53% | Tom Wilson (9) |
| Winnipeg | 14/22 | 64% | 15/34 | 44% | Connor (10), Vilardi (7), Scheifele (6) |
