Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers (-130, 6)
Game One
8 p.m. ET
We are just hours away from Game One of the Stanley Cup Final. There is a great deal of anticipation that the sequel will be even better than last year’s Final that saw the Panthers defeat the Oilers in seven games. For the Panthers, this will be their third consecutive trip to the Cup Final and the sixth consecutive season a team from the state of Florida will have a chance to raise Lord Stanley’s Cup.
As for the Oilers, they were like kids in a candy store, caught up in the moment of what was ahead. Edmonton captain, Connor McDavid, describes the journey back to the finals like this. “You know, there’s steps to everything,” McDavid began on Media Day at the Cup Final. “When you’re a kid, you just want to play in the NHL. Then you want to be successful and do all these great things. And then there comes a point where it’s only about winning… and we’re looking to finish the job.”
Tonight is the next step in the process for both teams, who now know that at most they have seven games remaining in their season. Both teams have faced adversity in the playoffs. The Oilers lost the first two games of their opening-round series to the Los Angeles Kings before winning the next four games. The Panthers dropped the first two games of their series to the Toronto Maple Leafs in round two before taking that series in seven games.
I can guarantee the Oilers don’t need a history lesson about last year’s Final when they lost the first three games to Florida before rallying to force a Game Seven, only to lose a heartbreaker, 2-1. The Cup Final will be the first time in this year’s playoffs that the Oilers will have home ice advantage. Edmonton is 6-1 in the 2025 postseason, outscoring the opposition, 33-17.
The Panthers won’t be intimidated by having to start on the road. They have not had home ice advantage in any of the three previous series. Florida’s a league best, 8-2 on the road, outscoring the opposition, 48-21. Home teams are 49-31 and favorites are 50-30 in this year’s playoffs.
Other numbers to consider. For those who immediately say that the Panthers have the goaltending edge, keep in mind that Stuart Skinner’s .916 save percentage in the Cup Final last year was better than the .896 posted by Bobrovsky. Both teams have had 19 different goal scorers in the postseason. All seven Florida defensemen have found the back of the net. Five of the nine Oilers blueliners who have played in the playoffs have a goal. With Zach Hyman out for the Final, the Oilers now have seven players with five goals or more. The Panthers have five players with five goals or more, including Sam Bennett, whose 10 goals lead the postseason. Both teams have 10 different players who have scored a game-winning goal.
There are many ways to approach tonight’s Game One. I will continue to ride the trend of 11 consecutive games having been decided by two goals or more and will play both teams on the puck line (-1.5 goals). With games being decided by two goals or more, the empty net goal prop has been profitable, cashing in four straight and six of the last 11 playoff games. As I do with playing both teams to cover the puck line, I will also wager on both teams to score an empty net goal. If you wager on only an empty net goal to be scored, you get a small plus price (+110). Conversely, if you play the teams individually – Edmonton (+280) and Florida (+375), you will get a greater return on your investment if either team scores into the empty cage (available at BetMGM). Overall, 56 of the 80 playoff games have been decided by two or more goals. The favorite has covered the puck line in 36 of the 50 wins, and the underdog has covered the alternate puck line (-1.t5 goals) in 20 of the 30 victories.
On to the goal props for Game One. Instead of just playing an anytime goal, I will target players to score the first and last goal of the game as well. In some cases, I will isolate those players to score the first goal by the home and road team. For example, the Panthers’ Seth Jones has scored the first goal of the game once in the playoffs, but he has scored the first Panthers road team goal (not the first goal of the game) twice. Teammate Carter Verhaeghe has twice scored the first goal of the game, and both times it occurred on the road. Corey Perry and Adam Henrique have both scored the first home goal for Edmonton two times in the playoffs (First goal home/road props available at FanDuel.)
It also never hurts to be last. Edmonton’s Connor Brown, who missed the final two games of the series versus Dallas, has scored the final goal of the game four times in the postseason (leads the Oilers), with two of these being empty-net goals. Leon Draisaitl is second on the team, scoring the final goal twice, both coming in overtime. On the Florida side, Sam Bennett has also scored the final goal of the game four times (two empty-netters). I reference the empty-netters because they tell us that these players are out in the late stages of games to protect a lead.
Game One Predictions:
Connor Brown anytime goal (+575) – .10 units
Connor Brown last goal of the game (+3300) – .10 units
Corey Perry anytime goal (+260) – .10 units
Corey Perry first Oilers goal of the game (+900) – .10 units
Adam Henrique anytime goal (+480) – .10 units
Adam Henrique first Oilers goal of the game (+1600) – .10 units
Sam Bennett anytime goal (+280) – .10 units
Sam Bennett last goal of the game (+850) – .10 units
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals (+184) – .25 units
Florida Panthers -1.5 goals (+260) – .25 units
Edmonton Oilers empty net goal (+280) – .25 units
Florida Panthers empty net goal (+375) – .25 units
Series Plays:
Connor McDavid Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+100) – 1 unit
Leon Draisaitl Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+1500) – .20 units
Sergei Bobrovsky Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+850) – .20 units
Sam Bennett Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (+3900) – .50 units
Edmonton Oilers Series Spread -1.5 games (+176) – .50 units
Connor McDavid to lead the series in points (+170) – .20 units
Corey Perry, at least two goals in the series (-125) – .20 units
Edmonton Oilers to win Game One and win series (+160) – .25 units
Florida Panthers to win Game One and Edmonton to win the series (+420) – .25 units
