NHL Predictions – Wednesday, November 20:
Tuesday was a very profitable day (+9.84 units), going 12-5 on our NHL predictions, including a pair of live wagers that I posted on X. I will continue to add plays through the course of the day as well as during games when appropriate. Toda, we have a lighter schedule with just five games on the card. I am prop bet heavy today including one of my favorite systems plays that has already cashed in a previous meeting this season between the teams involved. Let’s have another great day. Here are tonight’s NHL predictions.
Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs (-135; 6)
7:30 p.m. ET
The Maple Leafs continue life without captain Auston Matthews as the Golden Knights make the only stop of the season in Toronto. On Tuesday, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman broke the news that Matthews was seeking treatment in Germany for his upper body injury that has forced him to miss the last six games. Toronto has gone 5-1-0 without Matthews and since he came into the league, they are 40-19-2 in games that he has not played. The Leafs will also be without Max Domi who was placed on Injured Reserve earlier today. With Matthews out of the lineup, Mitch Marner has stepped up with four goals and 10 points in the six games. Joseph Woll gets the start for Toronto and his first career start against the Golden Knights.
Tonight will be the first of five on the road for Vegas, who has just three wins in eight games away from T-Mobile Arena. The Golden Knights have won three of the last four meetings with Toronto. Jack Eichel has tormented the Leafs, scoring 15 goals in 19 career games against Toronto. Knights’ defenseman Shea Theodore has also thrived against Toronto, setting up 12 goals in his 12 games versus the Leafs. If the Golden Knights are in action, it also means an auto play on Pavel Dorofeyev’s shots on goal prop. Dorofeyev has had 3+ shots on goal in nine of his last 12 games.
NHL Predictions: Pavel Dorofeyev 3+ SOG (-125) – 1.5 units
Jack Eichel anytime goal/over ½ assist (+288) – ½ unit
Shea Theodore over ½ assist (+120) – ¾ unit
Carolina Hurricanes (-200; 6.5) at Philadelphia Flyers
7:30 p.m. ET
The Carolina Hurricanes simply own the Philadelphia Flyers. The Canes have won 11 of the last 12 meetings, including a 6-4 win back in early October. After the Flyers tied the game at 4, Carolina scored two goals in the final 31 seconds to dash the Flyers’ hopes and making a winner of all who joined me in playing Carolina on the Puck Line. The Hurricanes come into tonight’s contest as winners of three of their last four games, outscoring the opposition 13-4 in the three victories and scoring four or more goals in each win. For the season, Carolina has scored four or more goals in 12 of their 13 wins and covered the Puck Line in 11 of the 13 victories. The Flyers have given up four goals or more in eight of their 11 losses this season. Carolina’s Martin Necas is coming off a four-point game against the St. Louis Blues and has 27 points on his current 13-game point streak. Necas has picked up an assist in 14 of the last 16 games. Those of you who have been frequent readers of the column would be familiar with me targeting Jack Roslovic’s shots on goal prop. Roslovic has struggled the past two games with just one shot on goal but has had three or more shots on goal in nine of his last 12 games. I have to apologize for not paying close enough attention to the Canes Jordan Martinook. Martinook is on a run of eight consecutive games of two or more shots on goal.
In Philadelphia, the Flyers came up one goal short in their 3-2 loss to Colorado on Monday. Forward Travis Konecny continued his hot streak, picking up an assist on one of the two Flyers goals. Konecny has seven assists in his last seven games and has registered an assist in six of his last seven games. He has also registered three shots on goal or more in five straight.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes TT over 3.5 (-145) – 1.5 units
Martin Necas over ½ assist (-145) – 2 units
Jordan Martinook 2+ SOG (-145) – 1 unit
Jack Roslovic 3+ SOG (+170) – ½ unit
Travis Konecny over ½ assist (+126) – 1 unit
Travis Konecny 3+ SOG (-145) – ½ unit
San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars (-450; 6)
8:00 p.m. ET
For the second consecutive game, the Dallas Stars find themselves as a (-400+) favorite. On Monday, the Stars were upset by the Anaheim Ducks, 4-2, losing for just the second time in nine home games. The Stars were just the third home team in 23 games that were a (-200+) favorite coming off a win that lost their next game. Dallas’ previous win came against the Minnesota Wild. From the world of crazy trends. Five of the six teams who have beaten the Wild this season have lost their next game.
This will be the second meeting between the Sharks and Stars. Dallas outlasted San Jose, 3-2 in a shootout back on October 15. Dallas is 6-1 this season as home favorites and have held the opposition to two goals or less in all six wins. The Sharks have scored two goals or less in 11 of their 20 games this season.
San Jose is coming off a thrilling 5-4 overtime win Monday versus the Red Wings. Macklin Celebrini scored the game-winner for San Jose, who needed overtime to decide the outcome for the third time in four games and for the seventh time this season. Three of the last four meetings between San Jose and Dallas have needed extra time, and two of the three overtime games had a final score of 3-2. Five of the Sharks’ 20 games this season have ended 3-2, but only their game against Dallas went past 60 minutes.
In my opinion, prop plays provide our best value for tonight’s matchup. The Sharks Macklin Celebrini and the Stars Logan Stankoven each have had 3+ shots on goal in six of their last seven games. The Sharks Tyler Toffoli has been subscribing of late to the theory that every shot is a good shot. Toffoli has registered 4+ SOG in three of his last four games and seven times this season, including the lone meeting against the Sharks last month.
NHL Predictions: Regulation Draw +475 – ¼ unit
Exact Score in Regulation 2-2 (+1700) – ¼ unit
Macklin Celebrini 3+ SOG (-115) – 1 unit
Logan Stankoven 3+ SOG (-125) – 1 unit
Tyler Toffoli 3+ SOG (+110) – ½ unit
Tyler Toffoli 4+ SOG (+285) – ½ unit
Nashville Predators (-130; 5.5) at Seattle Kraken
10:00 p.m. ET
For the second time this season, the Nashville Predators and Seattle Kraken will meet with our first period Over 1.5 goals, goal in the first 10 minutes and full game going Over the total system play in effect. When the two teams met on October 15, both Seattle and Nashville were coming off being shut out. Tonight, it’s only the Kraken. Seattle was blanked 2-0 by Jonathan Quick and the Rangers on Sunday.
Looking back at their first meeting, a 7-3 win by Seattle, the teams combined for five goals in the opening 20 minutes, with the first goal coming less than four minutes into the contest. It was 79 seconds into the third period when the full game Over of 6 was a winner. For the season, the 1st period Over 1.5 in this scenario is 25-11, goal in the first 10 is 26-10, the full game Over is 22-12-2. If there are less than two goals scored in the first period in our system play, then I strongly suggest doubling your wager and play the second period Over 1.5. Of the 11 games where the first period Over 1.5 has not cashed, the second period has gone over the total nine times.
When it comes to betting the side, I was expecting to see the Kraken as the favorite but that is not the case. Nashville has been holding steady as a (-130) favorite despite the Kraken being at home, having a better record than the Predators who have just two road wins in nine games. Both of Nashville’s wins have come as a road favorite (2-2). The Kraken are 1-3 as a home underdog as compared to 4-1 as a home favorite.
This game opened with a total of six and has been bet down to 5.5 in most spots. Seven of the 10 meetings between these two teams have had six or more goals.
Nashville’s Roman Josi has an assist in five of his last six games and leads the Preds with 12 on the season. The Kraken’s Brandon Montour has had 3+ shots on goal in 3 of his last four games, six of his last nine, as well as hitting the mark in the game against Nashville earlier this season. Teammate Jared McCann is on a roll as well, scoring four goals in the last six games. McCann scored in the first meeting against goalie Juuse Saros and now has six goals in 12 games against the Predators netminder.
NHL Predictions: Seattle Kraken/Nashville Predators goal 1st 10 mins (-140) – 2 units
Seattle Kraken/Nashville Predators 1st period over 1.5 (-115) – 2 units
Seattle Kraken//Nashville Predators over 5.5 (-118) – 2 units
Nashville Predators ML (-130) – 1 unit
Roman Josi over ½ assist (-120) – 1 unit
Brandon Montour 3+ SOG (-130) – 1 unit
Jared McCann anytime goal (+195) – ½ unit
