NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Here are tonight’s NHL predictions and best bets
Dallas Stars (-119) vs Minnesota Wild (+107)
Total 5.5 (Over, -120)
Game 1 – 5:30 p.m. ET
The Minnesota Wild made big news on Friday when it was announced that they were going with Jesper Wallstedt between the pipes in Game 1 and not veteran Filip Gustavsson, who started all games in the regular season against the Stars.
From Mike Russo, the great Minnesota Wild beat writer from The Athletic, “Gustavsson gave up four or more goals in five of his last six starts and has an .875 save percentage since the March 6 trade deadline. Wallstedt gave up two goals or fewer in eight of his final nine starts and has a .930 save percentage since the trade deadline.”
The last time Wallstedt faced the Stars in Dallas was his NHL debut, and he was torched for seven goals. In fairness to the netminder, the Stars were without two of the best defensemen, and he was just coming back from a groin injury. That was then and this is now, and Wallstedt has earned the right to start game one.
The Stars won two of the three opening games of a series in last year’s playoff, but prior to that, Dallas lost seven consecutive opening games of a series. Also, prior to last season, five of the prior six opening games had gone to overtime that included a game against the Minnesota Wild.
The other bit of news surrounding the Wild is the status of defensemen Quinn Hughes. Hughes did not practice Thursday and Friday with the team and hasn’t been on the ice since he logged 29 minutes, 58 seconds, in a loss at Nashville last Saturday. “Originally he was gonna fly with the team, but I just think with the illness, I think more rest for him and just not have him on the plane (made sense),” Minnesota coach John Hynes said after Friday’s practice. “So he’s en route to Dallas today (Friday). Our expectation is for him to play.”
I will pass on the side as I am invested in playing this series to get to game six and stick to some player props. The Stars’ Mavrik Bourque has taken advantage of his bump to the second line, scoring four goals in the final two regular season games (including a hat trick). He presents great value with both his goal and assist prop. Kirill Kaprizov has nine goals in 12 games against Stars goalie Jake Oettinger, including three goals this season. The Stars’ Jason Robertson scored 14 goals in 19 career games versus Minnesota, including three this season. Prior to last season’s playoffs, the Stars had gone to overtime in five of their last six playoff games.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Kirill Kaprizov ATG (+145) – 1 unit
Mavrik Bourque Over ½ assist (+425) – .25
Mavrik Bourque anytime goal (+380) – .25
Jason Robertson anytime goal (+125) – 1 unit
Jason Robertson to score first Dallas goal (+420) – .05
Kaprizov/Boldy/Wyatt Johnston/Robertson pt parlay (+850) – .50
Regulation Draw +320 – .05
Wild/Stars/Flyers/Penguins all to score 2+ goals (+134)
Vladimir Tarasenko Over 1.5 shots on goal (-106) – 1 unit
Philadelphia Flyers (+125) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-150)
Total 6 (Over, -120)
Game 1 – 8 p.m. ET
For the first time since 2018, we are being treated to the battle of Pennsylvania. The Flyers entered the postseason having won 18 of their final 26 games. The Penguins are returning to the playoffs after a three-year absence thanks to an offense that ranked third in scoring this season (3.54 goals/per game). It should then come as no surprise that the Pens scored four goals or more in 38 of their 41 wins this season.
I have the Flyers to win the series at (+145) strictly as a value play. I can make a case for either team to win the series, and my plan of attack is to go back to a system play that I used last season and play each team to win by 2+ goals. Last season’s first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs saw 32 of the 47 games decided by two goals or more.
Sidney Crosby led the Penguins in goals versus the Flyers in the regular season with four and has 15 goals in 23 career playoff games versus his Pennsylvania rivals. Sean Couturier has had a solid playoff career versus the Penguins with eight goals in 11 games. Porter Martone had 10 points in nine games with the Flyers.
NHL Predictions and Best Bets:
Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 goals (+175) – .50
Philadelphia Flyers -1.5 goals (+285) – .50
Sidney Crosby anytime goal (+170) – .25
Sean Couturier anytime goal (+550) – .05
Zegras assist/Tippett, Martone pt parlay (+360) – .20
Malkin/Rakell point parlay (+102) – .50
Martone anytime goal (+275) – .20
Over 6 (-120) – 1 unit
Additional Series Plays
Ottawa/Carolina Series to end in 6 games (+200) – .20
Ottawa/Carolina Series to end in 7 games (+200) – .20
Canadiens to win series 4-2 (+700), Canadiens to win series 4-3 (+650), Lightning to win series 4-2 (+380), Lightning to win series 4-3 (+350) – all plays .25 units
Gabe Landeskog (Colorado) Over 1.5 goals for the series (+115) – .10, Val Nichuskin (Colorado) Over 1.5 goals for the series (+125) – .10
Jack Eichel (Vegas) to lead the series in assists (+200) – .10
Mark Stone (Vegas) Over 2.5 goals for the series (+170) – .10
Cutter Gauthier (Anaheim) Over 2.5 goals for the series (+110) – .10
Logan Cooley (Utah) Over 1.5 goals for the series (-130) – .10
Evan Bouchard (Dallas) 2+ shots on goal every game in the series (+215) – .10
Connor McDavid (Edmonton) 2+ shots on goal every game in the series (-140) – .50
Connor McDavid (Edmonton) – Conn Smythe +1500 – .10
Darryn Raddysh (Tampa) 2+ shots on goal every game in the series (+205) – .10
Tage Thompson (Buffalo) 2+ shots on goal every game in the series (+105) – .50
Porter Martone (Philadelphia) Over 1.5 goals for the series (-125) – .05
Tyson Foerster 2+ SOG in every game (+800) – .10
Trevor Zegras (Philadelphia) Over 1.5 goals for the series (-110) – .10
Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh) Over 2.5 goals for the series (-105) – .50
Rickard Rakell (Pittsburgh) Over 2.5 goals for the series (+165) – .25
Pens to win series 4-2 (+450) – .25, Pens to win series 4-3 (+390) – .25, Flyers to win series 4-2 (+500) – .25, Flyers to win series 4-3 (+575) – .25
Jason Robertson (Dallas) Over 2.5 goals for the series (-110) – 1 unit
Mavrik Bourque (Dallas) Over 1.5 goals for the series (+210) – .25
Quinn Hughes (Vancouver) Over 1.5 goals for the series (+320) – .10
