Lightning
A preview of the 2025-26 NHL season for the Tampa Bay Lightning, including predictions from VSiN NHL Expert Jonathan Davis. For all other NHL team previews, check out our NHL page.
Key Additions: Jakob Pelletier, Pontus Holmberg
Key Departures: Nick Perbix, Mikey Eyssimont
Overview
The Lightning have just four wins in their last 12 playoff games, including just two wins in 10 games against in-state rival Florida. Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk fired a salvo about the Panthers recent dominance over Tampa when he said, “this is not a rivalry.”
Tampa’s 27-9 record as home favorites was third-best in the NHL last season. It was on the road as an underdog where the Bolts struggled with just five wins in 16 games.
Offense
Tampa’s 292 goals scored were tops in the NHL. They scored four or more goals in 36 of their 47 wins, covering their team total (Over 3.5) in 76.5% of their victories. Additionally, they covered the Puck Line (-1.5 goals) in 38 of their 47 wins (81%). The Bolts won by three or more goals 30 times. That was more victories than the Preds, Sharks and Blackhawks had all season.
Nikita Kucherov won the scoring title for the second consecutive season with 37 goals and 121 points, but has just one goal in his last 16 playoff games. Tampa’s power play finished fifth overall, but their 13 goals surrendered with the man advantage had them tied for the most shorthanded goals scored by the opposition. The Lightning were the only team last season with four players to score at least 35 goals and the only team to have two players, Brayden Point (42) and Jake Guentzel (41), reach the 40-goal mark.
Defense
The Lightning cut down their goals against from 267 to 216 last season. Tampa was fourth in goals against and only five teams gave up fewer goals 5-on-5 than them. Only the Jets (+86) had a better goal differential (+75). Victor Hedman’s 66 points were sixth-best in the league (by a defenseman) and 29 more than Darren Raddysh who was second on the team with 37 points. J.J. Moser came over from Utah last season, joining Hedman on the top pair, while Ryan McDonagh and Eric Cernak comprise the team’s second unit.
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy finished last season first in games started, second in wins and second in shutouts. His 2.18 GAA was a career-best and his .921 SV% was his highest since 2020-21 (.925). If only he could have taken those numbers into last year’s playoffs, where his GAA ballooned to 3.27 and his SV% plummeted to .872.
Backup Jonas Johansson struggled to keep the puck out of the net. In his nine losses, Johansson gave up four or more goals eight times. Even in his wins, he gave up at least three goals four times. Those numbers are something to keep in mind when playing Tampa’s opposition team total on the games that Johansson gets the start.
Players to Watch
I am looking at the Lightning’s defenseman beyond Hedman and McDonagh. If the rest of the group, led by Cernak and Moser, can continue to raise their game and reduce the hard minutes from the two veterans, it will go a long way to help Tampa escape the first round for the first time in four seasons.
Outlook
The Lightning finished No. 1 in goals scored for the fourth time in the last eight seasons and have never finished out of the top 10 over that same time frame. I will bite on the Lightning (+600) to lead the NHL in goals scored. Could this be his swan song in Tampa for head coach Jon Cooper, who is in the final year of his contract?
Team Futures
Regular Season Points: 102.5
To Make the Playoffs: -550
To Miss the Playoffs: +380
To Win the Atlantic Division: +280
To Win the Eastern Conference: +550
To Win the Stanley Cup: +1300
2024-25 Recap
Record: 47-27-8, 102 points (2nd Atlantic)
Over/Under: 38-37-7
Home Favorite: 27-9 // Home Dog: 2-3
Road Favorite: 13-11 // Road Dog: 5-11
Win Score 4 or more: 36 of 47 // Lose Give Up 4 or more: 23 of 35
Puck Line Wins: 37 of 47 // Puck Line Losses: 18 of 35
Front End Back-to-Back: 4-6 // Back End Back-to-Back: 5-5
Points Leader: Nikita Kucherov – 121
Goal Leaders: Brayden Point – 42, Jake Guentzel – 41
Assist Leader: Nikita Kucherov – 84
Shots on Goal Leader: Nikita Kucherov – 265
Blocked Shots Leader: Ryan McDonagh – 152
Depth Chart
Forwards
Jake Guentzel / Brayden Point / Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel / Anthony Cirelli / Gage Goncalves
Conor Geekie / Nick Paul / Oliver Bjorkstrand
Pontus Holmberg / Yanni Gourde / Mitchell Chaffe
Defense
Victor Hedman / J.J. Moser
Ryan McDonagh / Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg / Darren Raddysh
Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy / Jonas Johansson
Power Play Unit 1
Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel
