The Vegas Golden Knights are one win away from reaching the Stanley Cup Final, but the Dallas Stars can force a Game 7 with a win on Sunday. Will Vegas become the fifth team in NHL history to blow a 3-0 series lead? Read on for odds, news, predictions, and best bets for Game 6.
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Stars beat Golden Knights 4-2 in Game 5
Vegas was flying in the first 15 minute of the game and after they scored the opening goal, the Stars looked rattled. However, Jake Oettinger kept his composure and made a big stop on William Karlsson to keep Dallas within one. The Stars rallied played great from that point on and finally got the break that they deserved when Ty Dellandrea, who was a healthy scratch for the first two games of the Western Conference final, potted two huge goals in a 1:27 span midway through the third period.
Adin Hill played about as good as he could have, but he probably would like to have the third goal back. I don’t think you can blame him for the last goal, which was caused by a horrible defensive turnover right behind his net and his play was the reason the game had stayed tied up until that point. The Stars held a 64 percent edge in shot attempts and a 58 percent edge in expected goals at the end of 40 minutes. Dallas finished the game with a 58 percent edge in shot attempts and they also owned well over 60 percent of the expected goals in the game.
Game 6 Odds via VSiN
Vegas Golden Knights (+105) at Dallas Stars (-125)
Game 6 is set for Monday night in Dallas, and the Stars listed anywhere from -125 to -135 on the moneyline. In other words, there’s a better chance than not that we’re going to see Dallas and Vegas play in a Game 7. According to my hockey betting model, the Stars should win the game around 54 percent of the time, which doesn’t mean much considering the current odds because I’m going to need the market to move one side or the other significantly.
Note: Stars’ captain Jamie Benn will be back in the lineup for Game 6 after serving a two-game suspension for crosschecking Mark Stone.
Best Bets for Game 6 of the Western Conference Final
From a betting perspective, there isn’t a whole lot that’s drawing me into Game 6 besides the fact that I can still win my bet on the Stars to win the series, but there are three player prop bets that offer enough value to warrant a few smaller bets.
Wyatt Johnston Anytime Goal +275 (0.5 units)
Wyatt Johnston leads all players in the series with 20 shots on goal through five games. The 20-year-old rookie doesn’t have a goal in the series, but he ranks third in expected goals behind Jason Robertson and Mark Stone. Johnston had five shots in Game 5, and he hit a post, too. He couldn’t cash in on his partial breakaway, but the fact that he’s getting those kinds of opportunities is enough to draw me back to his anytime goal prop. The odds aren’t as long now (he was listed at +320 to score a goal in Game 5) that the Stars are on home ice, but he’s still worth a look at +275.
Wyatt Johnston Over 2.5 Shots EVEN (0.5 units)
As mentioned, Johnston leads all players in shots in the series and he has registered 26 shots on goal in his last six games. Johnston hit the net at least four times in five out of those six games, including four of five against Vegas, and whether he remains on a line with Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment or ends up back with Jamie Benn, the speedy rookie will have chances to shoot the puck.
Alex Pietrangelo Over 2.5 Shots +145 (0.5 units)
Pietrangelo cashed the over on his shot total (2.5) for the second game in a row on Saturday. The Vegas defensman ranks second in the series in shot attempts behind Jason Robertson with 33 and he has hit the net nine times on 17 attempts in the last two games. Pietrangelo averages more than 20 minutes of ice time per game and leads all Vegas players in time on ice.
All bets tracked by third party app Betstamp.
Updated Series Projections
Below are my series projections for the Western Conference final. Shop around and compare these odds to what is being offered different sportsbooks and you might find some value.
Series Winner
Vegas Golden Knights: 76% (-317)
Dallas Stars: 24% (+317)
Correct Series Score
Vegas Golden Knights win in 6: 46% (+117)
Vegas Golden Knights win in 7: 30% (+233)
Dallas Stars win in 7: 24% (+317)
Series Spread
Vegas Golden Knights -1.5 Games: 46% (+117)
Dallas Stars +1.5 Games: 24% (+317)
Series Total Games
7 Games: 54% (-117)
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