Tuley: Wednesday NHL Best Bet, NBA ‘dog-or-pass’ experiment, Valentine’s Day recap


Wednesday NHL Best Bet, Tuesday Recaps

Tuesday was Valentine’ Day, so we hope all of our readers spent it with someone they love.
Personally, I spent it with my wife Wendy. We went to the gym together, had lunch at Buffalo Wild Wings, had spaghetti dinner with our son Maddux, etc. It was probably the most time we spent together in a single day since before football season!!!
But if you know me, you also know I also spent time in the Tuley’s Takes home office because I love my followers, too, as the sport betting beat never truly takes a day off.




I also had to follow my action, though it was a letdown to lose my Best Bet of the day on the Capitals +135 vs. the Panthers. When we made the pick, we didn’t know that Alexander Ovechkin was taking the game off to attend to a family matter. It was still a good bet as the Capitals tied the game at 1-1 and 2-2 before falling 3-2 in basically a coin-flip game.
At least we easily won our second NHL play of the day as the Blues blew out the Panthers 6-2 as +115 underdogs to give a small profit on the day and pay for our Valentine’s meals and chocolates.
Let’s recap the rest of Tuesday’s action and look for more Best Bets on Wednesday.

Tuesday Recaps

CBB: Oklahoma (1.5-point home fave) beat No. 12 Kansas State 79-65, but it wasn’t an upset. Syracuse (1.5-point home fave) beat No. 23 North Carolina State 75-72, but it also wasn’t an upset. No. 24 Providence upset No. 18 Creighton 94-86 in 2OT as 1-point home dog.

NBA: Faves swept 5-0 SU on Tuesday but just 4-1 ATS as the Celtics (+9.5) covered in 131-125 OT loss at Bucks, who won their 11th straight. Game. The Raptors (-7.5), Suns (-2.5), Clippers (-8) and Wizards (-1) covered as chalk. Home team went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. Overs led 3-2. 

More NBA: On the season, favorites improved to 559-300 SU with 12 games closing pick-’em, but underdogs still lead 430-408-21 ATS (51.3%). Home teams lead 518-353 SU and 448-404-19 ATS (52.6%). In totals wagering, Overs improved slim lead to 440-417-14 (51.3%).

NHL: Favorites went 7-2 Tuesday with only upsets by Senators (+173 in 3-2 shootout win at Islanders) and Blues (+115 in 6-2 rout vs. Panthers). The Canadiens, Hurricanes, Devils, Jets, Bruins, Lightning and Penguins won as chalk. Road teams led 6-3. Unders 7-2.

Wednesday NHL Best Bet

Rangers-Canucks 1P Over 1.5 -165/Sabres-Ducks 1P Over 1.5 -165 (parlay payoff +158): We love when the NHL schedule makers give us the Canucks and Ducks on the same day as they’ve been our most consistent moneymakers with these plays. While the Rangers are one of the top 1P Under teams this season, the Canucks are the No. 1 1P Over team at 41-13 (75.9%), have gone Over in 7 straight First Periods and 14-2 in their last 16. The Rangers and Canucks combine for 65-42 (60.7%) with 1P Overs. The Ducks are the No. 3 1P Over team with the Sabres at No. 4, so today they’re actually the stronger play at a combined 69-37 (65.1%). As always, we get our NHL betting stats from "Follow the Money Army" member @PSUOtto on Twitter. As we normally do, we take these two chalk bets in a parlay to turn them into an underdog.

NBA: We don’t have an official play for Wednesday in the Association, but let’s do a little Tuley’s Takes experiment. The Hornet as a “swagger play” after having their 7-game winning streak snapped on Monday, but they’re between 6-and 6.5-point home favorites vs. the Spurs, who are certainly fadeable on a 13-game losing streak of their own. Critics of my “dog-or-pass philosophy” always like to stay that if I can’t make a case for the underdog in a game that I should then bet the favorite as I’m indirectly saying that’s where the value is. The problem is that far too many times during my sports betting life, when I do that I lose and then feel doubly bad because I not only lose money but then also kick myself for not having a winning dog. So, I’m not going to lay the points myself, but let’s test my theory that the “pass” portion of “dog-or-pass” is the right course of action. It’s the shortest sample of one game, but it’ll give us something extra to write about in Thursday’s column!