We’re all the way into the semifinals of the men’s basketball competition at the 2024 Paris Olympics. We’re going to see Germany taking on host France in the first of two games on Thursday, August 8th. Germany earned a straightforward win over Greece in the quarterfinals, while France upset Canada after making a bunch of big lineup changes and stylistic adjustments. In the second game, Serbia will face USA for the second time in this tournament. Serbia erased a 24-point deficit to defeat Australia in the quarterfinals, setting up this massive matchup. Meanwhile, Team USA pounded Brazil in the quarterfinals. All in all, we’re in for some exciting action the rest of the way. That said, keep reading for some picks and predictions for the Olympic basketball semifinals.
Olympic Basketball Record: 7-8 (+0.96 units)
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Germany vs. France – 11:30 am ET
Germany won by 14 when these teams met in Group B action a couple of days ago, but the team led by a lot more than that and it was a game that was more lopsided than the final score suggested. France had been unimpressive at the Olympics before that game, having just needed overtime to beat a weak Japan team. So, it wasn’t a big surprise that Germany cruised to a win. Germany came out and played with a lot more aggression, and France didn’t respond well after being punched in the mouth. However, we saw a completely different French team against Canada in the quarterfinals. Head coach Vincent Collet made the bold decision to bring Rudy Gobert and Evan Fournier off the bench, looking to play a little smaller and faster against a Canada team that is loaded with NBA talent on the perimeter. The move could have alienated two key French pieces, but it instead energized the entire team. Gobert barely played and appears to be dealing with a minor injury, but Fournier was big off the bench in the game.
France now looks like a team that should bring a much better look to this meeting with Germany. The group knows what to expect from the opponent, which is a lot of on-ball intensity. So, look for France to make quicker decisions with the basketball. Collet actually called out Victor Wembanyama after the loss to Germany and said that his star needs to play within the flow of the offense. Wembanayma responded with five assists in the win over Canada. He didn’t shoot the ball very well, but he was a nice hub offensively and should be better moving forward. And overall, the frontcourt pairing of Wembanyama and former NBA big man Guerschon Yabusele looked excellent. That duo should make things difficult on Germany. Wembanyama’s length is a problem for pretty much any opponent, while Yabusele is a wrecking ball that moves rather well for a guy that is pushing 275 pounds.
The only concern here is that France’s shotmaking can come and go. The team really lacks quality at the guard position. But Isaia Cordinier and Fournier proved that they are capable of stepping up against Canada. I think both will play a big role in helping Les Bleus make this a tight game. I also like that Frank Ntilikina will be in the starting lineup to defend Dennis Schroder. Ntilikina fouled out against Canada, but he’s a big, feisty on-ball defender and will take pride in shutting Schroder’s water off. Schroder had 26 points and nine assists in the first meeting between these teams, but Ntilikina played only nine minutes in that one. This should be an entirely different game.
It’s also hard not to like that France will have the crowd here. These fans will enjoy rooting for a new-and-improved version of the team, and the energy in the stadium should be outrageous. I’m playing France to cover the spread and I also think the team has a good shot at advancing to the gold medal game.
Bet: France +5.5 (-111 – 2 units) & France ML (+170)
Serbia vs. United States – 3:00 pm ET
Serbia was getting absolutely hammered by Australia in the quarterfinals, but the team started to lock in defensively and slowly chipped away at the lead. Once it got close, Nikola Jokic was able to get his group across the finish line. Jokic finished with 21 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists. He also had four steals and made some timely plays on the defensive end late in the game. Jokic also got some big help from Bogdan Bogdanovic, who woke up after a slow start. And Vasilije Micic added 14 points and six dimes off the bench. All in all, six players scored in double figures for Serbia. The team now has some serious momentum heading into a meeting with a United States team that wiped the floor with Brazil in the quarterfinals.
Team USA battered Serbia when the two met in group play. The Americans ended up earning a 26-point victory in that one. However, I don’t think you can expect that to happen again. For starters, Serbia actually jumped out to an early lead in that game, showing that it can execute at a high level against USA’s defense. The issue is that Serbia was extremely cold from 3 in the game, shooting 9 for 37 from deep. The group also got crushed in the minutes Jokic went to the bench. The big man played 31 minutes in that one, but the time he didn’t play doomed his team. Well, you shouldn’t expect Jokic to come off the floor much here. He played 39 of a possible 45 minutes against Australia last game. And I don’t think it’s crazy to expect the center to play the entire game. That alone would go a long way in helping Serbia keep this game close.
Not only will we see a lot more out of Jokic here, but I’d be surprised if Serbia doesn’t shoot better this time around. Of course, it wasn’t as simple as Serbia just missing open looks the first time. Team USA is the best defensive team in this entire competition. But the Serbians should still have a little better luck from 3, especially considering it’s a team that has solid 3-point shooters. And Jokic has now had several looks at Team USA’s defense, so he should come correct with better ways to pick the opponent apart and create good shots for his teammates.
I also just don’t know if Team USA will be able to run away with this game if it starts out close again. They might have done it in group play, but there’s a different pressure that comes with playing in the knockout rounds.
Overall, Serbia is a team that we were all very high on heading into the tournament, and the team has been battle tested to this point in the competition. I’d be surprised if the Americans run them off the floor. It’s hard to do that to a team three times in a row, and this is the third meeting between them if you include the pre-Olympics showcase.
Bet: Serbia +17.5 (-120 – 1.5 units)
