On Saturday, August 10th, USA will take on France for the gold medal in men’s basketball at the 2024 Paris Olympics. For USA, a spot in this game was expected. The Americans have the most talented squad in the world, which is why they were heavy betting favorites to win the competition. However, the semifinals did prove that this team isn’t perfect. Team USA was pushed to the brink of elimination by Serbia, but the team was able to turn it on late and escape with a 95-91 win. Meanwhile, France was viewed as a contender before the competition started, but people soured on Les Bleus after a slow start to group play. Then, head coach Vincent Collet made some lineup changes and adjusted things strategically. That really woke France up and allowed the team to beat Canada and Germany in the knockout stage. France is now the first team since 1996 to medal as the host of the Olympics, but Les Bleus don’t want to stop there. With all of that in mind, we’re in for an exciting gold medal game, especially considering the atmosphere in the arena. Keep reading for USA vs. France analysis and betting predictions.
Olympic Basketball Record: 10-8 (+6.16 units)
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How To Watch USA vs. France
Where: Bercy Arena in Paris, France
When: 3:30 pm ET on Saturday, August 10th
Channel: NBC/Peacock
USA vs. France Odds
Spread: USA -16 (-108), France +16 (-112)
Total: Over 176.5 (-108), Under 176.5 (-112)
Moneyline: USA -1450, France +850
USA vs. France Predictions
This game opened with Team USA laying 15.5 and quickly jumped out to 17.5. Since then, the number has come back down quite a bit. However, I agree with the way it was initially moving. I had France in the team’s win over Germany, as I think Collet pushed the right buttons with his roster. He recognized that playing Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert together wasn’t working. France needed a little more speed in the first unit. The problem is that there’s not much Collet can do to help his team compete with Team USA.
The harsh reality for France is that the best guard in the entire nation isn’t even on the roster. Nolan Traore, an 18-year-old that is expected to be a top-five pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, has been playing for France in the U18 EuroBasket. Meanwhile, the French national team is trotting out Frank Ntilikina, Andrew Albicy, Evan Fournier, Matthew Strazel and Isaia Cordinier in the backcourt. Some of those guys have NBA-level skills. However, none of them are complete basketball players, and the lack of talent at guard is going to stick out like a sore thumb against the American team. USA has guys like Devin Booker, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday to hound opposing guards on the perimeter. These French guards can look extremely uncomfortable with the ball on a good day. It’s only going to look uglier here.
Team USA also happens to have a lot of options for Wembanyama. Between Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo, Steve Kerr is always going to have an elite NBA defender on the French phenom. That’s going to be tough for Wembanyama, who has already had some problems dealing with the physicality the refs are allowing in this competition.
I’m just not sure how France is going to consistently create offense against Team USA. Les Bleus have looked clunky on that end of the floor throughout the entirety of this event. They lack players with the ability to create offense for themselves off the dribble, and they’re not even reliable when it comes to running actions that free up shooters. All of that will be exacerbated against a USA team that can get after it defensively — and will be playing with more intensity than we’ve seen in any game thus far.
Team USA should also have very little problems offensively. They have a number of shot creators that will be licking their chops with some of these slower footed French defenders on them. Look for LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant to turn in big games here, and don’t be surprised if we also see another good performance from Embiid. The big man finally stepped up and contributed in a big way in the win over Serbia. Well, he’ll now use his 70-pound advantage over Wembanyama around the basket.
All in all, there’s just too much that Team USA does well for this current version of France. So, even though Les Bleus will have a significant home-court advantage here, I’d be surprised if this game doesn’t get out of hand.
Bet: USA -16 (-108)
